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Rage2100
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06-25-2009, 10:49 PM
Post subject: AKs with flush draw facing big raise ($10NL).
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 719
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Villain was 20/11 over 153 hands. He seemed pretty decent for a $10NL player. I thought he could have something like 78 here, or had maybe flopped a set. I'm about 40% against this range. Alternatively, he could have noticed me c-betting the flop a lot after I had raised pre-flop, but his bet size tells me has something big, and is worried by the flush draw. Is this an easy fold?
Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10)
UTG: ($16.11)
Hero: ($16.04)
CO: ($10.16)
Button: ($30.25)
SB: ($9.90)
BB: ($4.60)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A  , K .
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Button calls $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30
Flop: ($1.25) 6 , 5  , 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, Button raises to $5.20, 1 fold, Hero ??
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poker_pup
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 130
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I'd fold. I think you're right. The overbet seems like he's trying to protect a decent hand against flush drawing odds. If you call and any heart hits, your action dries up anyhow.
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revolvingiris
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 1,139
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Well, if you were to call the flop it would be -EV.
Board: 6h 8h 5c
Hand 0: 42.947% { AhKh }
Hand 1: 57.053% { 55+, 97s, 86s, 74s, 65s }
I think a push is -EV as well (unless he is able to ever fold this):
pot equity = 45%
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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No fucking way I don't shove this. Try adding a little more to his range other than monsters (like hands afraid of flush draws). If he folds like 10% of the time to a shove your way over what you need to get this in. If your thinking of folding your playing the wrong game. Your playing his whole range, including hands that have some equity and hope you fold.
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The Izebox
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: bronx new york
Posts: 255
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Push
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Me? I always tell the truth.
Even when I lie.
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caddie444
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: constantly UTG
Posts: 723
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So many factors make this a shove over.
1. You said yourself that he might have noticed you c-betting too much
2. You can't bet this flop when there are 2 opponents with the intentions of folding
3. We have decent equity vs his range that does this, do you really think he is raising this much on his absolute nut hands? (ie straights, even though those can be discounted because wtf what decent player calls with 9-7,7-4,8-6 pre in this spot even OTB?)
4.Like Jyms said even if he folds a small % of the time we profit
5. Gambool
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Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
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Rage2100
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 719
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Coming from SnGs, shoving over seemed the natural thing to do, which I did. I posted this hand because I've shoved over four or five times lately, in similar situations, and lost my stack each time.
I'm not sure what percentage of the time $10NL players will fold after making such a big raise, as I've not really played enough hands yet. So far, I'd say the percentage is pretty small.
I was just checking I wasn't making a really big mistake by shoving. Thanks for the replies.
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golfguy37
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Straight
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 217
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Do you think your overcards are good? If so, then you should probably shove. Otherwise, I would fold this.
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golfguy37
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Straight
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 217
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Do you think your overcards are good? If so, then you should probably shove. Otherwise, I would fold this.
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by golfguy37
Do you think your overcards are good? If so, then you should probably shove. Otherwise, I would fold this.
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fold equity is much more important here than who has the better made hand as of right now. regardless of what he has we have at least 33% equity (a little less than that if he has a set). unless he has a set or like 97 then we're flipping a coin so any fold equity is like pure profit, and a lot of knuckleheads even show up with a hand we're beating here a lot of time like QhJh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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stick it in if you like getting 150bbs in with about 30% equity
you ppl even look at stack sizes
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Do you really think that aqt $10NL this hand only has 30% equity in these situations?
And yes I missed the stack sizes so I may just call, but still like shoving. But I am in no way letting this go. I still shove a ton though and expect to see a 7 or smaller flushes as well as sets, 99-JJ here
Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
56,430 games 0.047 secs 1,200,638 games/sec
Board: 6h 5c 8h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.507% 42.56% 00.95% 24014 537.00 { JJ-55, AQs, A8s-A7s, 98s, 87s, AQo }
Hand 1: 56.493% 55.54% 00.95% 31342 537.00 { AhKh }
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jyms there's no way he has AQ here ever considering he'd have a backdoor flush draw AT BEST
also a 20/11 could easily have 97s here because he must be calling raises or limping more than a standard tag... I'd play 97s here too, but probably 3bing it
an 8 is not raising, and if he's getting it in here with an 8 one hundred sixty BB deep he's retarded
and if he's not getting it in here with an 8, then our equity against the 8 is completely irrelevant
so let's make a range of hands that we think he'll felt:
Board: 6h 5c 8h
Hand 0: 55.833% { JJ-55, Th9h, 97s, 87s, 7h5h, 5h4h }
Hand 1: 44.167% { AhKh }
so if he ever raises something and folds it we should shove
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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OP says he is decent and may have noticed him Cbetting a ton. AQ reps the hands he may bluff raise with here. This board is dry and probably a great spot to raise with air. AQ is just one of those hands that may do this because it plays well if called by a weak pair.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
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your standard 20/10ish weak 10nl player isn't going to play back to cbets like this without a hand/strong draw.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jyms
OP says he is decent and may have noticed him Cbetting a ton. AQ reps the hands he may bluff raise with here. This board is dry and probably a great spot to raise with air. AQ is just one of those hands that may do this because it plays well if called by a weak pair.
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he's not getting his entire stack in with AQ
here's how you do this:
you figure out his entire bluff raising range
you figure out his stack-off range
you calculate the equity vs. his stack off range
you add fold equity vs. his raising range
you don't put hands into the pokerstove that will fold because we're trying to find the equity of a semi-bluff WHEN CALLED and then add the amount of money we win when he folds
otherwise we get "lol, when he calls a shove we're getting it in good"
I mean, make our stacks 300BB, is getting it in here EV+?
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RoyalProdigy
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 178
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i think he has a set which means your behind. imo its shove or fold. if you shove hes calling. if you fold you boost your overall fold equity. I mean do you really think this guy is just spewing??? or protecting??? OP said he was a descent player. I dont even need to fuck with hand ranges to fold this hand because at worst and i mean at worst hes got two pair. Which means you got like what 36% chance to win the hand either way. Pushing isnt the worst thing, calling is stupid. But why shove on a prayer? i geuss it all depends if you feel like gambling. just my 2 cents
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Stack That Arab Money!!!
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caddie444
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: constantly UTG
Posts: 723
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
stick it in if you like getting 150bbs in with about 30% equity
you ppl even look at stack sizes
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Yah missed the stack sizes... 
Still Spenda I think we can both agree that we can't bet/fold this flop can we?
Also I think our equity is higher than 30%, I tend to agree with IOPQ's stack-off range of villain
Quote:
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Originally Posted by RoyalProdigy
if you fold you boost your overall fold equity.
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Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
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Monsieur_chat
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: London
Posts: 254
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RoyalProdigy
if you fold you boost your overall fold equity
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This makes me sad
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by caddie444
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
stick it in if you like getting 150bbs in with about 30% equity
you ppl even look at stack sizes
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Yah missed the stack sizes...
Still Spenda I think we can both agree that we can't bet/fold this flop can we? |
meh it's closer than the first 10 replies to the thread, his flop raising range is going to be sets/straights/dominated draws. I doubt he's raising hands like 99/TT here, so the question becomes does he raise to this size with lesser flush draws?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Quote:
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Originally Posted by caddie444
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
stick it in if you like getting 150bbs in with about 30% equity
you ppl even look at stack sizes
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Yah missed the stack sizes...
Still Spenda I think we can both agree that we can't bet/fold this flop can we? |
meh it's closer than the first 10 replies to the thread, his flop raising range is going to be sets/straights/dominated draws. I doubt he's raising hands like 99/TT here, so the question becomes does he raise to this size with lesser flush draws? |
I think it's very likely with dominated straight flush draws, not so much with random queen high flush draws
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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ok with the 6h/8h on the board, and us holding the Ah what SF draw can he have
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
ok with the 6h/8h on the board, and us holding the Ah what SF draw can he have
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Th9h, 7h5h, 5h4h
also 7hxh probably sticks it in here just fine
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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lol yes, 7hxh does stick it in, except I already told you he pretty much never has 7hxh unless it's 97hh
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
lol yes, 7hxh does stick it in, except I already told you he pretty much never has 7hxh unless it's 97hh
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he holds  exactly
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