|
fade177
|
11-14-2005, 04:56 AM
Post subject: AK vs. QQ
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 144
|
|
Lets say I know they don't have AA or KK and they shove in. Hell lets just say that I know they have AKs, the fifth best starting hand and I have QQ. Even though the call is positive EV, in ring games should I simply swallow the fact that it's a coinflip and fold? I know the numbers are 54% to 46% and that if it happened a million times I would come out ahead, but i'm forgetting variables such as how much money I lose each time I'm out drawn to how much I win etc etc etc. What do ya'll think?
|
|
We are the all-singing, all-dancing crap of the world
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
A couple things to consider..
1. How are you sure that they don't have KK or AA? You can't be.. unless you are playing with some absolutely terrible players that will go AI with weak hands but not the 2 powerhouse hands of hold 'em.
2. QQ is a favorite against all hands that aren't KK and AA, and dominates all other hands besides AK.
3. QQ is a favorite vs AK, suited or not, you have the best hand here. Factor in money in the pot already.. blinds, limps, raises/reraises and any calls, and you are getting pretty good odds. 3:2 or 2:1 in these kind of situations are not uncommon.
#1 is the most important point, but in ring games you should theoretically only be making decisions that are +EV. If an opponent pushes with AK, calling with QQ is very clearly +EV. If you can't handle the variance, you are probably playing out of your bankroll.
|
|
|
|
biondino
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
|
|
My god man, if you are playing ring and you know the oppo has AK when you have QQ (let's say you saw his cards or something) then you call an all-in EVERY time.
There are no variables. If you are both all-in pre-flop, you will win just under 54% of these hands. That figure is set in stone. If you are playing ring and can't handle the loss of a buyine WHEN YOU HAVE THE BEST OF IT you shouldn't be playing (this form of) poker.
|
|
|
|
fade177
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 144
|
|
Ok, I'm not worried about losing a buy-in. I was simply asking because I know in tournaments that you are supposed to stay away from decisions that are barely +EV. That's why I was asking what peoples take was in a Ring game. The situation came up last night where I had QQ. I raise in MP to 4BB, this is .25/.50 and I probably have $35 dollars starting the hand. Cutoff calls with a stack of $50, but I know this opponent very tight, plays 4 tables with full rolls and just sits on his big hands. The button goes all in for 15 dollars. The way I'm reading this hand is, if he had a monster like AA or KK, he would have made a smaller raise even with that stack, to hopefully get more than one caller, triple himself up. In fact the way this guy was playing I could see him going all in with AQ, he wasn't a solid player. So I go over the top figuring I have the best hand and that the caller had an Ace or King and was going to fold. He did fold, and he later told me he had an Ace. That means I was actually 59% to 41% going to the flop. I was getting just under 2 to 1 to call, I'm sure I have to make this call every time. And I feel I made the right play, all I had wanted to hear were thoughts on variance...
|
|
We are the all-singing, all-dancing crap of the world
|
|
EricE
|
|
11-14-2005, 04:24 PM
Post subject: Re: AK vs. QQ
|
#5 (permalink)
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by fade177
Lets say I know they don't have AA or KK and they shove in. Hell lets just say that I know they have AKs, the fifth best starting hand and I have QQ. Even though the call is positive EV, in ring games should I simply swallow the fact that it's a coinflip and fold? I know the numbers are 54% to 46% and that if it happened a million times I would come out ahead, but i'm forgetting variables such as how much money I lose each time I'm out drawn to how much I win etc etc etc. What do ya'll think?
|
Making decisions based on variance when the play is +EV is a personal choice. For me a 54% to 46% advantage is certainly enough to push for a whole buyin. Heck, I’ll push with a 51% to 49% advantage. Playing within your BR is what allows one to do this. In ring if you bust out you just reload and go some more. Don’t worry about dropping a buyin as long as you believe it to be long term +EV.
|
|
Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
|
|
TalentedTom
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Toronto
Posts: 289
|
|
I rather go all in with AKs than QQ. My top 3 ring game hands are AA/KK/AKs.
#1 rule of poker is: If you can afford to do so, avoid situations where you are either a big underdog or a small favorate.
Your immaginitive situation will almost never present itself in a real life game. It is impossible to know EXACTLY preflop that your opponent has AKs, but even if you did, this sitation should be avoided.
If your purpose of playing online poker is to let off some steam and gamble, then by all means make this play. If your goal is to build a solid bankrolll and develop your skills then avoid this sitation. A solid player will find a sitation to put his money in, a gambler will call simply for thrills 
|
|
Tom.S
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
I'll get it all-in pre-flop with AK against lots of players. Against the rest, I'm usually done with the hand before much of any money gets into the pot.
|
|
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by TalentedTom
I rather go all in with AKs than QQ. My top 3 ring game hands are AA/KK/AKs.
#1 rule of poker is: If you can afford to do so, avoid situations where you are either a big underdog or a small favorate.
Your immaginitive situation will almost never present itself in a real life game. It is impossible to know EXACTLY preflop that your opponent has AKs, but even if you did, this sitation should be avoided.
If your purpose of playing online poker is to let off some steam and gamble, then by all means make this play. If your goal is to build a solid bankrolll and develop your skills then avoid this sitation. A solid player will find a sitation to put his money in, a gambler will call simply for thrills |
"I rather go all in with AKs than QQ. My top 3 ring game hands are AA/KK/AKs."
I don't understand the argument of AA/KK/AKs being your top 3 ring hands. I think it's pretty clearly AA/KK/QQ/AKs being the top 4, in that particular order. I'll gladly go all-in vs anybody with AA/KK, and QQ/AK against a very loose/agressive player, but I'd much prefer it be QQ then AK, suited or unsuited.
"Your immaginitive situation will almost never present itself in a real life game..."
Agreed.
"...It is impossible to know EXACTLY preflop that your opponent has AKs, but even if you did, this sitation should be avoided."
Strongly disagree. You are better then 1:1 to win and as a bonus you are getting better then 1:1 here. Easy call. Very few exceptions outside of playing out of your bankroll, which you shouldn't do.
"If your purpose of playing online poker is to let off some steam and gamble, then by all means make this play. If your goal is to build a solid bankrolll and develop your skills then avoid this sitation. A solid player will find a sitation to put his money in, a gambler will call simply for thrills "
The only reason to avoid this situation would be (correctly) fearing KK/AA or (incorrectly) playing with scared money. In this hypthetical example, a solid player will put all his money in here everytime and not think twice about it, knowing he has the best of it and made the correct play.
|
|
|
|
Spanners
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: new zealand
Posts: 112
|
|
Um this is discussed in the latest cardplayer, did you read it? http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...093&m_id=65576
|
|
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Spanners
|
I didn't read it until now, and I only read through it quickly. It is a tournament discussion which doesn't necessarily translate well into a cash game situation.
Off the top of my head.. these were the key points:
1. First hand of the tourney, it folds to the SB. The SB accidentilly exposes his hole cards of AKs. He pushes all-in. You are the BB with pocket queens. Should you call or fold?
2. The article implies that in order to win the tournament, you are going to have to double up 10 times. (1024 person tournament, 2^10=1024. Very simple.) Unfortunately, poker does not work like that.
3. After running some #'s that really didn't look like accurate calculations (the calculations were accurate, WHAT they were calculating looked very suspicious to say the least), the conclusion was that this was a clear call, something I may or may not agree with. In a cash game situation it's an easy call all day long.
4. Not only Did they recommend a call in this kind of situation as a slight favorite, but also as a slight dog, something I certainly do not agree with. I believe the line was 48.6%. So if you are more then a 48.6% favorite in an all-in situation, pot odds NOT included, you should call. I disagree, but I'm going to stop here.
|
|
|
|
TalentedTom
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Toronto
Posts: 289
|
|
The only thing I disagree with is calling raises. I will put someone all in if I have AKs, or QQ, but I will not call an all in with these hands. I am a firm beleiver in aggresion, by being the aggresor you make up for the coin flip situations via all the times your opponents will lay down.
|
|
Tom.S
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by TalentedTom
The only thing I disagree with is calling raises. I will put someone all in if I have AKs, or QQ, but I will not call an all in with these hands. I am a firm beleiver in aggresion, by being the aggresor you make up for the coin flip situations via all the times your opponents will lay down.
|
If I open for 3x with AKo and some idiot short stack pushes for 20, I insta-call if my call closes the action.
|
|
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by TalentedTom
The only thing I disagree with is calling raises. I will put someone all in if I have AKs, or QQ, but I will not call an all in with these hands. I am a firm beleiver in aggresion, by being the aggresor you make up for the coin flip situations via all the times your opponents will lay down.
|
When you push with AK or QQ, how often is it that you can get a better hand to fold? Those hands being KK and AA.
The problem with your philosophy, IMO, is that you will get hands like AQ, JJ, etc. that may pay you off to fold, KK and AA call. Generally speaking, the money you make from forcing out similar (or worse) hands is not going to make up for your losses when you are dominated.
|
|
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by TalentedTom
The only thing I disagree with is calling raises. I will put someone all in if I have AKs, or QQ, but I will not call an all in with these hands. I am a firm beleiver in aggresion, by being the aggresor you make up for the coin flip situations via all the times your opponents will lay down.
|
If I open for 3x with AKo and some idiot short stack pushes for 20, I insta-call if my call closes the action. |
no brainer
|
|
|
|
strawman
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 207
|
|
I read the article and stopped right here, "If you decline the “coin flip,” you’re stuck with your initial starting stack." Not sure how you do that when you are the big blind. Secondly, I don't understand how doubling up here gives you a 22k stack. Nitpicking sure, but it indicates sloppiness.
To do or not to do. Well, that comes down to my poker mantra, making good decisions. Calling is definately a good decision.
One thing that the article did not mention and I think is of importance is the assumption that this is a heads up situation of AKs vs. QQ. But is that really the case here with 8 other players. Statistically some of the outs for AKs are surely gone so I would make the argument that AK is actually a bigger dog in this hypothetical situation.
|
|
|
|
fade177
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 144
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by TalentedTom
The only thing I disagree with is calling raises. I will put someone all in if I have AKs, or QQ, but I will not call an all in with these hands. I am a firm beleiver in aggresion, by being the aggresor you make up for the coin flip situations via all the times your opponents will lay down.
|
In my hand however, I was first to act out of those who called or reraised my raise. I made the right read, I felt that they didn't have AA or KK, and That's why I went over the top. However, what I'm getting from this is that I should fold even if I feel I have the best of it, because I can no longer be the aggressor? It was a heads up play basically removing the caller from play, and there was to be no post flop play. I feel I did the right thing here.
I didn't realize this post would be so controversial. I had a very marginally profitable weekend this week and I lost two big hands with QQ and this was one of them. The other hand is a leak that I'm working hard on, which is somewhat discussed in another post.
My BR got above $400 for the first time this week, which I was happy about, even though I had lost the $75 on stars I deposited on Friday, but then I lost $60 (most of it on this hand...) to be back down at $340. I think as much as I don't like the .10/.25 level I'm going to move back down. Work on tighter playing, and recognizing when monsters turn into 7-2. When I get the BR up to $500 I'll move up to playing the .25/.50 fully rolled.
|
|
We are the all-singing, all-dancing crap of the world
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
