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AK in sb flops NFD + TPTK 25NL FR

  
 
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caddie444
Old 02-23-2010, 05:19 AM     Post subject: AK in sb flops NFD + TPTK 25NL FR #1 (permalink)  
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 From my OP:

Here's a hand where I'm not sure what the best flop line was lol FR:

Villain was 18/11 with a 0% 3-bet over 100 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($37.90)
UTG ($25.35)
UTG+1 ($14.65)
MP1 ($25.05)
MP2 ($24.30)
MP3 ($24.75)
CO ($25.35)
Button ($31.10)
Hero (SB) ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
7 folds, Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Here's my range for preflop for this guy, I still think he 3-bets his monsters so here we go:

22-10-10,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A9o+, KJo+,QJo,JTo

Flop: ($1.50) 9, A, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BB raises to $3, Hero ???

I know that my equity is great vs pretty much any hand, but I don't know if villain is capable of doing this with AQ or AJ. So my tentative range after he raises my bet would be:

99,1010,A9s+,QhJh,Tc9c,Td9d,Ts9s,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h,5h 4h,A9o+

Against this range my equity is ~60% though I'm not sure he would call a shove with this entire range

If I take out combos of AJ and AQ we have ~46% equity, and I'm pretty confident he'd get it in with this range.


I don't think any option other than folding is a huge mistake, but which line is better when he raises? I think I'm overthinking this and should just shove hoping he calls with AQ or something.


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spoonitnow
Old 02-23-2010, 06:17 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Something to think about in spots like this is that any heart is going to kill your action against hands you beat, so you should go ahead and try to get as much money out of hands that would be scared off by another heart as you can (ie: AJ+). Calling seems cool, but a heart is shutting down your action against a huge part of his range.
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eragotte
Old 02-23-2010, 02:52 PM #3 (permalink)  
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i cant think of a solid argument for not 4betting this flop personally... id 4bet smallish though to like 7.5

edit: meant 3bet flop above
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surviva316
Old 02-23-2010, 08:56 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
Something to think about in spots like this is that any heart is going to kill your action against hands you beat, so you should go ahead and try to get as much money out of hands that would be scared off by another heart as you can (ie: AJ+). Calling seems cool, but a heart is shutting down your action against a huge part of his range.
this. 3b whatever amount you believe will make villain think you are the most FoS and tempt him the most to shove over with draws.

unrelated note, i prefer 4bb's PF because i'm not really stealing with a wide range against this villain in this spot. thoughts? what do people do in this spot against an 18/13 with 5% 3b? against a 50/2?
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caddie444
Old 02-24-2010, 04:57 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Good points made guys, I wish I had thought of this when I was playing b/c the heart did fall and killed my action.

Quote:
Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post

unrelated note, i prefer 4bb's PF because i'm not really stealing with a wide range against this villain in this spot. thoughts? what do people do in this spot against an 18/13 with 5% 3b? against a 50/2?
You mean he's 3Betting 5% from the bb when the sb opens? I posted a thread a while ago where I opened AK in the sb and got 3B:

Click---->2 Standard hands from the SB 25nl 6-max

I think the general consensus was to fold unless we're sure he's exploiting us.

Vs the 50/2 guy a lot depends on his postflop tendencies but is an obvious 4x pre for value IMO


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ebouenolike
Old 02-26-2010, 04:55 PM #6 (permalink)  
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what do people think our line is with the exact same situation minus the NFD. Do we try and get a lot in now or do we see what the turn brings and re evaluate?
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Erpel
Old 02-26-2010, 05:17 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
unrelated note, i prefer 4bb's PF because i'm not really stealing with a wide range against this villain in this spot. thoughts? what do people do in this spot against an 18/13 with 5% 3b? against a 50/2?
This is probably a leak. If your opponent is nit-taggy you should probably open very wide from SB - and open smaller. Once they learn to 3bet, you can dial it down again. But 0% 3bets in 100 hands and 18 vpip - raise any two to $0.50 is not unreasonable - until he adjusts. Ok - so he almost has to adjust, but if you can trust that he adjusts badly and puts himself in situations he's not comfortable in that is not necessarily a problem.

I try not to vary my bet sizes too much and I tend to use 4bb (in 6max) in UTG and HJ with 3bb in CO, BTN and SB, but you could make an argument for coming all the way down to/near 2bb. Maybe 2.25bb ($0.55-$0.60). If he's folding to any bet size, there's no point putting more money in as it'll only bite your profit the few times he does have a hand he's comfortable playing with.

Even an 18/13 with 5% you should probably open a wide range against if it folds to you in the SB. A 50/2 will depend a lot on post-flop tendencies. Generally one principle for adjusting to tendencies is to raise bigger if he's fit-or-fold post (so the pot you win when he inevitably folds is bigger) and to raise less often (with hand equity) and bigger if he's a calling station post as the bigger pot means you get more value out of your hands when you make them.

Nitty people love to fold.
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Erpel
Old 02-26-2010, 05:23 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ebouenolike View Post
what do people think our line is with the exact same situation minus the NFD. Do we try and get a lot in now or do we see what the turn brings and re evaluate?
It kinda depends. If by missing the NFD you mean a completely rainbow flop that's one answer - if you mean a flop with still two of a suit that's another answer.

The main thing it depends on is what the raise means. When does this particular opponent raise? All we know is his preflop stats. Even his aggression factor would come in useful, as would his aggression frequencies, raise frequencies (by street) as well as the catch-all W$SD and WTSD stats. The core question is if he's raising here as a bluff ever or a semi-bluff (like a draw) ever. Some people don't. If he never raises as a draw he's signaling that he has a set and wants to get the money in. He could be lying, of course.
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surviva316
Old 02-26-2010, 10:07 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 erpel, i think the discrepancy here lies in the fact that 18/13 with a 5% 3b is nitty at all at FR, it's actually quite loose. it's prolly the equivalent of like a 26/20 with a 6-7% 3b at 6m, and i think opening A2o against a player like this is just suicide. so we're gonna end up opening a relatively strong range OOP, which sounds like a recipe for opening for 4bb's
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ljove
Old 02-27-2010, 12:58 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by caddie444 View Post
From my OP:

Here's a hand where I'm not sure what the best flop line was lol FR:

Villain was 18/11 with a 0% 3-bet over 100 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($37.90)
UTG ($25.35)
UTG+1 ($14.65)
MP1 ($25.05)
MP2 ($24.30)
MP3 ($24.75)
CO ($25.35)
Button ($31.10)
Hero (SB) ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
7 folds, Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Here's my range for preflop for this guy, I still think he 3-bets his monsters so here we go:

22-10-10,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A9o+, KJo+,QJo,JTo

Flop: ($1.50) 9, A, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BB raises to $3, Hero ???

I know that my equity is great vs pretty much any hand, but I don't know if villain is capable of doing this with AQ or AJ. So my tentative range after he raises my bet would be:

99,1010,A9s+,QhJh,Tc9c,Td9d,Ts9s,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h,5h 4h,A9o+

Against this range my equity is ~60% though I'm not sure he would call a shove with this entire range

If I take out combos of AJ and AQ we have ~46% equity, and I'm pretty confident he'd get it in with this range.


I don't think any option other than folding is a huge mistake, but which line is better when he raises? I think I'm overthinking this and should just shove hoping he calls with AQ or something.
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Erpel
Old 02-28-2010, 11:21 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
erpel, i think the discrepancy here lies in the fact that 18/13 with a 5% 3b is nitty at all at FR, it's actually quite loose. it's prolly the equivalent of like a 26/20 with a 6-7% 3b at 6m, and i think opening A2o against a player like this is just suicide. so we're gonna end up opening a relatively strong range OOP, which sounds like a recipe for opening for 4bb's
Appreciate the full ring perspective. That said, once it folds to you in the SB it doesn't matter a whole lot if you're FR or 6max. If he doesn't adjust in the BB it just makes it much more profitable to steal when he folds. Ok, so be prepared to give up immediately when he doesn't and you hold trash. But if he's going to fold 20ish% of the time and not adjust to rampant stealing - steal 100% using a bet size of $0.60 and check/fold every flop.
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