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AK gets 4-bet by squeeze-ee

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ARK

02-15-2010, 03:45 PM Post subject: AK gets 4-bet by squeeze-ee

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2006

Posts: 16

Have not been at the table long so no reads. I definitely was not expecting CO to be the one to 4-bet me. Do you call here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5.65)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($15.20)
MP1 ($17.95)
MP2 ($27.25)
CO ($32.10)
Button ($12.55)
Hero (SB) ($24.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K

, A

UTG (poster) checks, 1 fold, MP1 bets $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, MP1 calls $2.75, CO raises to $32.10 (All-In), Hero ???

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AdamThePirate

02-15-2010, 03:57 PM

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Aug 2008

Location: Manchester

Posts: 142

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People who limp re-raise are generally terrible players who have QQ+.

At best you're flipping, I would lay it down.

Edits: Then again, just as Muzz sez, there's a lot of dead money in the pots.

Muzzard

02-15-2010, 04:06 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Cheshire, UK

Posts: 1,843

Yes I would call.

There is alot of dead money in the pot already and I think it's going to be a flip a lot of the time, so with the dead money its fine to call. I highly doubt this is AA/KK, more likely to be a chop or flip.

spoonitnow

02-15-2010, 04:42 PM

#4 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: IRC Chat Room

Posts: 5,406

Read and learn how to do this:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html

Do your best with putting him on a range and decide what to do from there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.

ARK

02-15-2010, 08:10 PM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2006

Posts: 16

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Read and learn how to do this:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html

Do your best with putting him on a range and decide what to do from there.

My biggest question here spoon is trying to put him on a reasonable range of hands.

Against QQ+ only, I've got 30% equity. Add in AK and that goes up to 38%

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,958,384 games 0.072 secs 499,421,999 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 6524615 7436014.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 14561741 7436014.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,958,384 games 0.071 secs 506,456,112 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 6524615 7436014.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 14561741 7436014.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

I folded in the moment but I think I need to call bc of the dead money. With the dead money, I have to call 20.70 to win 31.45 ~35%. The only way I can fold here is if I know Villain is only doing this with QQ+, which seems to tight to assign an unknown right?

Without the dead money, I have to call 20.70 to win 28.70 ~ 72%. This makes me lean toward a fold unless we think AQ is in the range (seems unlikely).

All thoughts on my thought process are appreciated!

Muzzard

02-15-2010, 08:13 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Cheshire, UK

Posts: 1,843

It coudl quite easy be lots of pairs like 77+ too, do you not think he'd 3b QQ+ most the time pre and 4b you instead to like 8 rather than just jamming?

Roller

02-17-2010, 05:59 AM

#7 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: May 2009

Posts: 168

Roller has a little shameless behaviour in the past

In this spot given what we have.
I would Call.

If your read tells you different (Range).

Fold

daviddem

02-17-2010, 08:20 AM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2009

Location: Philippines/Saudi Arabia

Posts: 983

Quote:

Originally Posted by ARK

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Read and learn how to do this:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html

Do your best with putting him on a range and decide what to do from there.

EDIT: THE ANALYSIS BELOW IS WRONG. SEE SUBSEQUENT POSTS FOR CORRECTION

OK. Let's assume QQ+, AK as your opp's range. As per Pokerstove, you win 38.8% of the time, but don't forget that you also tie 20.7% of the time!

Now, pot odds. When it is your turn to talk, there is 0.60(blinds and poster)+3.50(your bet)+3.50(MP1 call)+3.50(CO call)+20.7(CO raise for the rest of your stack)=31.80. You have 20.70 left to call so the pot odds are 20.70 to 31.80, which is 39.4%. However, you should count the rake. Let's say the rake is 6%. 6% of the total pot after you call (52.50) is 3.15, but the rake is probably topped at $3 so your actual pot odds after rake are 20.70 to 28.80, which is 41.8% pot odds

So if you did compare your win equity of 38.8% to the pot odds of 41.8%, you might think you should fold. However you tie a significant portion of the time, so:

- 38.8% of the time, your profit on the call is 28.80
- 20.7% of the time, you tie and you "loose" 20.70, but you win back half the pot minus rake, which is (52.50-3)/2=24.75. So that is a profit of 4.05
- 40.5% of the time, you loose 20.70

EV = 0.388*28.80 + 0.207*4.05 - 0.405*20.70 = 3.63 > 0 so clearly you should call.

To directly compare your equity including the tie with the pot odds, take half the tie % and add it to your win %. Your equity becomes about 49%, which compares favorably with the 41.8% pot odds. The EV equation would become:

EV = 0.4915*28.8 - 0.5085*20.7 = 3.63

I don't play 25NL, but at 2NL, that kind of line is more often than not a medium/small pocket pair that the guy initially wanted to play for set value or a "trappy chappy" who likes to trap with his AA or KK or a tilting donk doing that with crap like KJ, who thinks it's unfair to get raised out of his limps preflop , and who does that to "teach them".

The question remains: which one is it?

spoonitnow

02-17-2010, 03:53 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: IRC Chat Room

Posts: 5,406

Quote:

Originally Posted by daviddem

OK. Let's assume QQ+, AK as your opp's range. As per Pokerstove, you win 38.8% of the time, but don't forget that you also tie 20.7% of the time!

You've made a easy-to-make mistake at the beginning of your analysis that has thrown off most of your reply. You don't win 38.8% of the time, you have 38.8% equity. Take a closer look at the output from PokerStove:

Code:

	equity 	win     tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	38.824%  	18.14% 	20.68% 	      78295380 	 89232168.00   { AKo }
Hand 1: 	61.176%  	40.50% 	20.68% 	     174740892 	 89232168.00   { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

I've added italics and bold to help you see it better. Also, the post I linked to above very much simplifies the analysis you were doing. Best of luck!

daviddem

02-18-2010, 02:23 AM

#10 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2009

Location: Philippines/Saudi Arabia

Posts: 983

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Code:

	equity 	win     tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	38.824%  	18.14% 	20.68% 	      78295380 	 89232168.00   { AKo }
Hand 1: 	61.176%  	40.50% 	20.68% 	     174740892 	 89232168.00   { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

I've added italics and bold to help you see it better. Also, the post I linked to above very much simplifies the analysis you were doing. Best of luck!

Ah sh...!

Thanks for pointing this out though, I'll be wary of this next time.

This is very well explained here: http://www.pokerstove.com/pokerstove/faq.php

daviddem

02-18-2010, 02:35 AM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2009

Location: Philippines/Saudi Arabia

Posts: 983

Let me correct this:

OK. Let's assume QQ+, AK as your opp's range. As per Pokerstove, you equity in the pot is 38.8%. 18.1% of your equity is coming from the times you win and 20.7% is coming from the times you tie.*

Now, pot odds. When it is your turn to talk, there is 0.60(blinds and poster)+3.50(your bet)+3.50(MP1 call)+3.50(CO call)+20.7(CO raise for the rest of your stack)=31.80. You have 20.70 left to call so the pot odds are 20.70 to 31.80, which is 39.4% ( =20.7/(31.8+20.7) ). However, you should count the rake. Let's say the rake is 6%. 6% of the total pot after you call (52.50) is 3.15, but the rake is probably topped at $3 so your actual pot odds after rake are 20.70 to 28.80, which is 41.8% pot odds

You then compare your 38.8% equity to the pot odds of 41.8%, and since 38.8% < 41.8%, it's a fold.

EV calculation from your equity:
- 38.8% of the time, your profit on the call is 28.80
- 61.2% of the time, your loss is 20.70

EV = 0.388*28.80 - 0.612*20.70 = -1.494 < 0 so clearly you should fold.

I don't play 25NL, but at 2NL, that kind of line is more often than not a medium/small pocket pair that the guy initially wanted to play for set value or a "trappy chappy" who likes to trap with his AA or KK or a tilting donk doing that with crap like KJ, who thinks it's unfair to get raised out of his limps preflop , and who does that to "teach them".

The question remains: which one is it?

* This does not mean that you tie 20.7% of the time though! This means that your equity in the pot from the times you tie is 20.7%. In a heads up pot, that means that the % of times you tie will be double your tie equity. In this case, you can figure that there are 3+3+6+9=21 combos in villain's range, and 9 of these are AK. 9/21=0.43=43%, so 43% of the time, it will be AK vs AK, which ties most of the time.

hhsale

02-18-2010, 09:57 AM

#12 (permalink)

One Pair

Join Date: Feb 2010

Location: Russia

Posts: 19

I think call

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AK gets 4-bet by squeeze-ee

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