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Robb
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02-16-2008, 03:42 AM
Post subject: AK all-in poll
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,070
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Just interested to know what others do. I'm pretty convinced about my own play with AK preflop at NL10 on the two sites I frequent. Let me know what you think.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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I shove agaisnst shorties or donks, but I don't call a shove 100BB's hardly ever
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.790% 31.42% 00.37% 103283904 1229808.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 68.210% 67.84% 00.37% 223018848 1229808.00 { QQ+ }
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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stacks?
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Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?
Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Depends on stack sizes/history/reads!
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,070
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Stacks are both 100 BB. It doesn't depend on reads. My point is to find out how often (say, over 5k hands) people find themselves able to shove with AK pre at donkstakes. Given your typical villains, how often can/do you shove with AK, given the above preflop action?
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
It doesn't depend on reads.
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QFT. Very true.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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so hang on are we talking about shoving or calling a shove?
Either way it depends on reads. I call a reasonable amount but not without history.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
so hang on are we talking about shoving or calling a shove?
Either way it depends on reads. I call a reasonable amount but not without history.
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as stated in the OP we are calling.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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I can't think of one decision that does not include reads, aside from when we have the nuts.
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Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?
Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I can't think of one decision that does not include reads, aside from when we have the nuts.
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agreed...my comment earlier couldn't have been more sarcastic
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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calling and shoving are two different animals.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,070
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I can't think of one decision that does not include reads, aside from when we have the nuts.
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Drew, we don't disagree on that. It wasn't the point, however. Let's say you have AK 20 times (with above action) in 10k hands. On average, given your reads and the typical villains you would face at donkstakes, how often are you calling the shove?
What percent of the time do you face situations (on average over many hands) where you're willing to stack off here?
Each individual call, however, of course demands a read.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,070
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
calling and shoving are two different animals.
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Very true. I'm interested in calling, when villain has shoved first. I shove with AK more often than I call with it. I don't either very much any more.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
On average, given your reads and the typical villains you would face at donkstakes, how often are you calling the shove?
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0%
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XTR1000
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Location: surfing in a room
Posts: 2,188
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depends on reads, I´m calling far less often than shoving myself. I keep track of what ppl shove in my player notes, if there are a couple of AQs, QQ and JJs I call.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
xtr stand for exotic tranny retards
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yo
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Hawk
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 367
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Unless I have seen them do this w/ unpaired hands, I'm folding every time.
Even if they do this with a QQ or less, I'm not interested in flipping a coin for 100BB.
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
I shove agaisnst shorties or donks, but I don't call 100 BB
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same here
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
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fold
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lean86
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Brazil
Posts: 14
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Read dependant, but most often than not i'm folding at those kind of situations. A-K is pretty much a drawing hand and i dont like my chances against a pocket pair, considering i have to hit something and he doesnt.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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AK is 50/50 to any pair lower than kings
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
so hang on are we talking about shoving or calling a shove?
Either way it depends on reads. I call a reasonable amount but not without history.
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as stated in the OP we are calling. |
ORLY?
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
My point is to find out how often (say, over 5k hands) people find themselves able to shove with AK pre at donkstakes.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
AK is 50/50 to any pair lower than kings
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not to split hairs, but isn't it 48/52% ?
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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lean86
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Brazil
Posts: 14
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13 to 10 underdog is the ratio i think. Which means that a little more often than not, you'll lose. You have to hit something, your opponent doesnt. Getting all your money in when you're not the favorite is -EV.
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
so hang on are we talking about shoving or calling a shove?
Either way it depends on reads. I call a reasonable amount but not without history.
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as stated in the OP we are calling. |
ORLY? |
yep. not sure if you are trying to come off as ass but you do: "I 3-bet AK at donkstakes (NL25 and below), and villain shoves all-in. I would call preflop with AK:" and then you left out a part in your quote "My point is to find out how often (say, over 5k hands) people find themselves able to shove with AK pre at donkstakes. Given your typical villains, how often can/do you shove with AK, given the above preflop action?"
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,070
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
so hang on are we talking about shoving or calling a shove?
Either way it depends on reads. I call a reasonable amount but not without history.
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as stated in the OP we are calling. |
ORLY? |
yep. not sure if you are trying to come off as ass but you do: "I 3-bet AK at donkstakes (NL25 and below), and villain shoves all-in. I would call preflop with AK:" and then you left out a part in your quote "My point is to find out how often (say, over 5k hands) people find themselves able to shove with AK pre at donkstakes. Given your typical villains, how often can/do you shove with AK, given the above preflop action?" |
Sorry - my point was to ask about calling a shove. I see now where I confused everyone.
What I've found, and what folks like Drew seem to believe, is that it's VERY RARELY right to call an all-in 4-bet shove with AK at donk stakes. I ended up doing this twice over the weekend. Both were cases where there were multiple players in the pot and I was hoping (based on HUD reads) that a 3-bet with AK would fold the table. Got rr'd all-in by short stack (both times) with everyone else folding. So I'm sitting there with dead money on the table and nearly 3 to 1 on my bet, so I called. Lost both hands to AA.
And this was the point of my thread. At donk stakes, I think an all-in 4-bet pre means AA or KK. Almost certainly. So if I haven't made everyone too aggravated, my next question is this.
If we're going to fold AK to 4-bets, how often should we 3-bet?
It's been my experience that a lot of NL10 players will call a 3-bet with hands as bad as 88, AJ or Ax sooted. But they shove all-in over the top with AA or KK. I wonder what others think. To summarize:
1. It's almost never right to call a 4-bet shove (without great read)
2. It's often +EV to play AK for a 3-bet
3. So under what conditions should we be 3-betting AK pre?
A 3-bet is going to cost 10 - 15 BB minimum, depending upon the preflop raise and number of callers. And we'll lose that bet if we autofold to a 4-bet. So I need to know that villains' preflop 3-bet calling range plus my fold equity covers a wide enough range. I need to win enough from preflop folds and postflop vs. weaker hands to cover the times I have to fold to a 4-bet. So what's the range? What minimum range and characteristics must villain have before 3-betting him makes sense?
Sorry, if this isn't helping others, much. It's helping me. I've learned that I can't "autobet" good hands, that I have to a plan for the hand that includes any potential raises/rr's behind me on this round and all action on the next round. Betting good hands in general is the correct thing to do, especially at donk stakes, but I need to have some idea of Plan A (where I want the hand to go), Plan B (what to do if a villain plays back), and Plan C (dealing with anything else surprising that might happen).
So I've been working on playing AK in raised pots, and trying to refine which villains I will attack, which I will call, and when it might be prudent to lay it down. Any advice mucho appreciated.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lean86
13 to 10 underdog is the ratio i think. Which means that a little more often than not, you'll lose. You have to hit something, your opponent doesnt. Getting all your money in when you're not the favorite is -EV.
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no. getting all your money in when youre not the favorite and there is no dead money is -EV. 13 to 10 is close enough that if there is any dead money in at all (i.e. a 3bet pot) that calling is better than folding when you know he has a PP lower than KK. The question is how often is a microstakes villain shoving worse than KK?
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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shazbox
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Ottawa, Ontario
Posts: 170
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Ya, if he has a pp that is lower than KK wouldn't it be correct to call with all the money already in the pot? Depends on bet sized, but even if you are 40% chance to win and only have to call 38% of the pot, it would be +EV.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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All you guys are adding factors to justify your answers. The question was specifically calling a shove. It's now different, but you ned to answer based on the rules provided.
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eugmac
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 739
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If I could I'd change my vote from Never to Sometimes - I meant that "typically" I fold there, but with the proper read I'd snap call.
I'm not so sure it's close to being as often as 35%, though.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,070
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by eugmac
If I could I'd change my vote from Never to Sometimes - I meant that "typically" I fold there, but with the proper read I'd snap call.
I'm not so sure it's close to being as often as 35%, though.
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I can't think of a read that would make me snap call. Just my opinion. I can think of a couple reads (out of a thousand) that would make me very ambivalent about calling and might tip the scales in favor of a call. But this is like 1% of the time or less against typical NL10 FR and 6max villains I see. I think the "autofold" is +EV, with VERY few exceptions. But 3-betting with AK under the right circumstances is bigtime +EV, too. So we need to think about our 3-bets so we can maximize profit and minimize pain.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,070
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Here's where I was going. Same preflop action. You pick up AK on the button, and MP open-raises standard amount. For the sake of argument, we're playing FR NL10 or NL25, and folding to any 4-bet all-in shove. Stacks are all 100 BB's. Reads for HUD stats are 200 hands+.
Stats for villains are VP$P / PFR / AFT / Folds Cbet%
A: 40/5/1.2/40%
B: 30/10/2.1/55%
C: 20/18/5.5/75%
Do you 3-bet these villains with AK?
D: What if B raises and C call from cutoff?
Discuss if inclined.
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Cocco_Bill
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 1,254
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wow , are the low stakes games really that passive? AK is pretty much unfoldable preflop in most situations against most opponents at mid high stakes.
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eugmac
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 739
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
wow , are the low stakes games really that passive? AK is pretty much unfoldable preflop in most situations against most opponents at mid high stakes.
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Ya I'd agree with TJ that a typical 4-bet shoving range at 25NL is QQ+.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,070
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
wow , are the low stakes games really that passive? AK is pretty much unfoldable preflop in most situations against most opponents at mid high stakes.
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I still can't fold KK pre, but I will fold AK to a 4-bet shove. Maybe call a 4-bet min-raise about 1/5 of the time depending upon villain (but that's worrisome, too) and stack sizes, etc. But villains 3bet a pretty wide range, so maybe in 1/3 the cases I see I'm willing to 4-bet shove with AK myself.
Bottom line, at NL10 where I play, all-in pre w/ AK is dangerous without a gold-plated read. I'm almost never calling, and I'm very rarely shoving with it.
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paulwright
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: World Citizen
Posts: 130
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Quote:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.790% 31.42% 00.37% 103283904 1229808.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 68.210% 67.84% 00.37% 223018848 1229808.00 { QQ+ }
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Above is worst case scenario run by Trainer - we could add AKs, AKo to villians range also - but lets go with QQ+ and 31% equity.
Can someone help me here with translating the above into BB's...
Robb stated he 3-bet and villian shoved. Therefore we assume pre-flop action went villian 4x, her0 12x, villian all in with 100BB
Therefore hero has 88BB to call to win 200BB.
This is where I need help to understand the threshold. 31% of 200 is 62BB - which is why this a fold instead of calling 88BB? Is that the logic all the fold voters are using?
If villian only had 50BB and hero had 38BB to call to win 100BB its closer but still a fold.
Is my logic and understanding of equity application correct here? If not - can someone correct me please??
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
wow , are the low stakes games really that passive?
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Many opponents are predicatable enough that it's a routine laydown against them. Others are erratic and wreckless, hence you must call here (and perhaps with much less, I've called 100bb cold with as little as ATo.)
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
Bottom line, at NL10 where I play, all-in pre w/ AK is dangerous without a gold-plated read.
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Doesn't have to be gold-plated. Just need to know he's aggressive, disreguard for money, erratic, on tilt, etc.
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eugmac
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 739
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
Bottom line, at NL10 where I play, all-in pre w/ AK is dangerous without a gold-plated read.
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Doesn't have to be gold-plated. Just need to know he's aggressive, disreguard for money, erratic, on tilt, etc. |
Agreed - it's quite obvious IMO when you're against the right opponent to call - hence my previous comment that it'd be a "snap call" in these special circumstances.
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sweetlemon69
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Toronto
Posts: 296
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This pretty much sums up my opinion (not a well experienced one at that) on AK and how to play it pre, and it's primary use. I voted no, for pretty much the reasons listed in this url:
http://www.mauipokerblog.com/2007/11...ver-rated.html
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Sounds like the real problem is first level thinking.
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by eugmac
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
Bottom line, at NL10 where I play, all-in pre w/ AK is dangerous without a gold-plated read.
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Doesn't have to be gold-plated. Just need to know he's aggressive, disreguard for money, erratic, on tilt, etc. |
Agreed - it's quite obvious IMO when you're against the right opponent to call - hence my previous comment that it'd be a "snap call" in these special circumstances. |
Like this guy:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...55.html#311498
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pantherhound
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Love me for a season
Posts: 492
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I can't think of one decision that does not include reads, aside from when we have the nuts.
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having the nuts requires reads to know what their calling range is
anyways, the hell that ive mercifully escaped from, aka £6 NL on crypto, most players who went allin preflop were nits who literally hung around, waited for premium hands then shove and hope to get a caller. unfortunately everyone at the table was a nit so noone got action.
crypto had to be the absolute worst place to play microstakes, there are literally more donks at $100NL. When I was forced to rebuild there I was shocked at first by how little trash they showed up with when I called/pushed allin with AK, most of the time they were doing it with TT+.
But this must be an exception, I'm sure there are tons of sites with incredibly easy microstakes where it is more correct to felt AK against a lot of opponents.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,070
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
Bottom line, at NL10 where I play, all-in pre w/ AK is dangerous without a gold-plated read.
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Doesn't have to be gold-plated. Just need to know he's aggressive, disreguard for money, erratic, on tilt, etc. |
LoL, fnord. You look into their souls. I can barely distinguish rocks from stations. My gold-plated read is likely equivalent to one of your half-assed reads, so we're prolly talkin' about the same thing here.
I just know that I'm finding good places to call the 4-bet shove with AK far less than 2% of the times I see it. Maybe a better player would find more. But that's why I'm at NL10.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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i mean vs. a 10/7 im insta folding, but vs. a 20/17 im insta calling most likely.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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eugmac
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 739
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This was an insta-call. Opp is real bad, and we've tangled a bit before and I hadn't found a spot to take his stack away till this point. He was playing like, 60/30, and was raising to 8xBB most of the time.
$0.12/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($27.71)
CO ($24.38)
BTN ($27.64)
Hero ($25.13)
BB ($43.19)
Pre-flop: ($0.37, 5 players) Hero is SB  
1 fold, CO calls $0.25, BTN raises to $2, Hero raises to $7.8, 1 fold, CO folds, BTN goes all-in $25.64, Hero goes all-in $17.33
Flop:    ($53.27, 2 players)
Turn:  ($53.27, 2 players)
River:  ($53.27, 2 players)
Final Pot: $53.27
BTN shows:  
Hero shows:
BTN wins $2.51 ( lost -$23.13 )
Hero wins $48.23 ( won $30.9 )
CO lost -$0.25
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riverturnflop
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I'd call against a normal player but probably folds to a nit.
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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if your odds are almost 2:1 I think you have to call without a read...
I've had a run recently of pushing AK preflop and getting called by AK, chopping the pot and losing a couple bbs to the rake... but I'm still pushing the hand a lot.
This situation comes up because you put jacks, tens, etc. to a tough decision, that's why you 3-bet or 4-bet AI in the first place. Pushing AK is too good, so you can call the AI here. When stacks get bigger than 200bbs, you'll be getting like 1.5:1 or 1.3:1, in which case you can just wait for a better spot.
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BostonGuy
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 6
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Really depends on the players at the table
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05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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