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Carroters
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02-20-2009, 10:32 PM
Post subject: AJ flops top pair - facing heat.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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This hand confused me a little. Villain had only been at the table for 8 hands. So far though he'd played some pots calling pre flop raises 3 times probably somewhat lightly both in and out of position.
Thought he was repping a very small range here, but also this isn't a common bluff line at 20NL at all in my experience.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($7.98)
BB ($3.42)
UTG ($20.98)
MP ($4.50)
Hero (CO) ($22.04)
Button ($22.05)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A , J
2 folds, Hero bets $0.70, Button calls $0.70, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.70) A , 5, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, Button raises $2.40, Hero calls $1.20
Turn: ($6.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50
River: ($19.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $9.75
Total pot: $19.50
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kb coolman
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 596
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I think you needed to make the decision about playing a big pot on the turn when the villain follows up with a 2nd pot sized bet. Calling here gets over 1/3 of you stack in the pot, making it impossible for you to profitably fold to his river bet.
I hold my nose and call here.
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Yeah I agree. I should probably have posted the hand with the turn as the decision. Lets talk about the turn then. Is he repping enough for us to fold here?
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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He's repping 2pair or TPTK IMO. Like you said, this isn't really a common bluff line. On the river we beat nothing, and it looks like he's valuebetting. We're calling to split it seems. I think we should fold the turn.
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Ich grolle nicht...
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POKEMONS
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 38
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I think the turn is a pretty clear fold. I don't mind peeling the flop raise but when he pots the turn I think we have to give him credit for a hand and fold. I think the worst hand he takes this line for value is AJ, and there are no reasons to assume he is bluffing in this spot.
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kb coolman
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 596
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
He's repping 2pair or TPTK IMO. Like you said, this isn't really a common bluff line. On the river we beat nothing, and it looks like he's valuebetting. We're calling to split it seems. I think we should fold the turn.
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This.
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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Given that the flop is so dry and we're out of position against an unknown, I think it might make sense to check/call the flop for pot control.
As played, turn is a clear fold.
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Let's give him some generic ranges, since we don't have any reads on him:
Pre-flop call of raise in position: AA-77, AK-A7, KQ-KT, QJ
Raise on flop: AA-99, 55, AK-A7
Bet on turn: AA, 99, 55, AK-AJ, A9
Question is whether you have equity against that range.
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kb coolman
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 596
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
Bet on turn: AA, 99, 55, AK-AJ, A9, As8s, As7s
Question is whether you have equity against that range.
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Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,188 games 0.005 secs 237,600 games/sec
Board: Ah 5c 9s 5s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.976% 66.50% 14.48% 790 172.00 { AA, 99, 55, AJs+, As8s, As7s, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 19.024% 04.55% 14.48% 54 172.00 { AsJc }
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POKEMONS
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 38
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
Let's give him some generic ranges, since we don't have any reads on him:
Pre-flop call of raise in position: AA-77, AK-A7, KQ-KT, QJ
Raise on flop: AA-99, 55, AK-A7
Bet on turn: AA, 99, 55, AK-AJ, A9, As8s, As7s
Question is whether you have equity against that range.
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Preflop range is definately too narrow. I would throw in 54s+, 22-66, at the very least
I doubt he is raising TT, JJ (I expect QQ/KK to 3bet almost always). Im not sure if we should assume an unknown to raises A7-AT on this board, but its a possibility. Having said that, I would definately weight his range more toward AJ-AK than A7-AT.
I agree with the turn range for the most part, but there is no way we have enough equity against that range to call.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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I definitely don't cbet here 100% of the time, I'm not sure about frequency but probably somewhere bet 70 check/call 30.
As played I'd fold the turn almost always, it's a dry board, thus our opponent's range is heavily weighted to air/nut-type hands and at this level w/o a read this is more than likely the nootz.
Timing would be somewhat helpful, was the flop minraise instant, if not I might even fold the flop tbh as sick as that sounds (although I'd never fold IP vs. a c/minraise). Timing on the turn and river bets would help as well, did he instant-slam the pot button on the turn? That could tell us a little bit about his thought process (i.e. I don't think he just snap-pots AT or weaker aces).
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Yeah the min raise on the flop was pretty insta as was the pot bet on the turn. The river bet was also about as quick as a $9.75 bet can be, but by that point I felt having called the turn because I felt he was repping such a narrow range that I had to then call the river.
From the timing tells it certainly didn't seem bluffy. The turn was where I messed this up. I didn't think about it nearly enough and acted too quickly. This and oblivious tilting after dropping buyins are my major leaks right now. Also eventually convincing myself to call spots where I orignally feel I have an easy fold - that's the main 3 problems imo.
Be interested if anyone else has trouble with these self convincing donk calls and what they've done to stop it happening?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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we're all stations yo, some are just moreso than others
I iz a hudge station, so you're barking up the wrong tree
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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'Repping a narrow range' usually means they're either a thinking (read:balancing) player and they're bluffing or they're everyone else and they actually have it. I think the best way to look at it is that they're everyone else until proven otherwise.
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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He's not repping a narrow range. He's repping all kinds of top pair/sets/everything.
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poker3player333
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 52
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A fold here. He could have 2 paired flop or have you outkicked i.e. AK. Basically think a fold here unless you have a strong read otherwise.
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