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davus
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06-02-2005, 02:00 PM
Post subject: AI against 4-to-flush a bad idea?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13
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I'm talking about when you know you have the best hand on the flop, like top 2 pair or trips and you raise to knock the draw out of the pot and he reraises you back all in.
I mean you will win that pot 3 times for every 2 times the draw will, right? Yet that's not the greatest % to risk going all in...I'm confused I guess cause I got screwed by it last night because I didn't want to let the draw bet my much better hand out of the pot and of course he hit and took my stack.
This is NL ring btw.
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CrunchyNuts
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 436
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Yes, if the opposing player has 4 to a flush with 2 cards to go, he has approx 40% to make the flush - assuming you have none of the flush suit. Reduces down to 36% if you have one of the flush suit (disregarding the chance that you draw a better flush).
I'll take them odds any day. In fact, I usually do...a lot of the players I play against (penny-NL) value flush draws insanely high, like this fella. It's fun to take their money 60% of the times, and the other 40% you just have to congratulate them on a good hand and hope they do it again.
Perhaps if you're prone to tilting on a beat like that, you shouldn't play the hands. But from an odds point of view, you should play.
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Knytestorme
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 562
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Don't forget also, that if you've got two pair you're drawing to the full house as well so while your odds of hitting the full house are less than his to draw the flush you have still reduced his odds of winning the hand especially if any of the four cards left to complete your full house are his flush suit.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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And if you have the set, you have 7 outs on the turn and 10 outs on the river to make the fullhouse or quads. Almost as good as the flush draw! If you are pretty sure the guy is on a draw don't even think of folding 2pair or a set. If you are afraid of calling all-ins with a 3-2 edge, you are never going to go far in poker. It is different in a tournament where the best strategy may be to pick a better spot, but in ring play, if you have a 51% edge, you should push it (unless you are under bankrolled which is a problem you shouldn't have).
Also, your odds are better than 3-2 because of the money already in the pot.
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Greedo017
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
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set odds are crazy good, in all situations. Only time i'd fold one is if there was an obvious made straight or flush. You're way more than 3-2 against a flush draw.
Your odds are roughly the same with both one pair or two pair - obviously 2 pair is a couple % better because you can make the full house. You're at 60-65% to win there. I think any flush draw has a 36% chance of completion, whether 3 are on the board or two are hole cards: you're gonna have 64% to win this the majority of the time. That's good for a push.
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i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
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