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AhJ on Axhxh xh against c/R

  
 
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inV1NCEble
Old 01-10-2010, 09:39 PM     Post subject: AhJ on Axhxh xh against c/R #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 38/24/0

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($5.10)
SB ($3.66)
Button ($5.27)
Hero (CO) ($5.10)
MP ($5)
BB ($3.16)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J
2 folds, Hero bets $0.16, 1 fold, SB calls $0.14, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.36) A, 9, 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn: ($0.96) 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.65, SB raises $2.15,Hero?

Total pot: $2.26

I think that he has a flush like always here cause he's so passive. Against a flush we have 15% equity. So if he's only doing this with a flush it's clearly a fold but I mean if I'm wrong and for some reason he's also doing this with other stuff (I really wouldn't know what) we do have quit a bit equity

I'm completely lost. Please help me

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ColdDecked
Old 01-10-2010, 10:15 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 If we're always against a flush, the amount we need to make to break even on the river is:

y=(% we lose)(Amount we lose)-(% we win)(Amount we win+x)
0=(0.85)(2.15-0.65)-(0.15)(0.96+0.65+2.15+x)
0.15x=1.275-0.564
x=4.74

Villain does not have that much left (or to begin with), so therefore we should fold.

Note: please correct me if I'm wrong.
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Donachello
Old 01-10-2010, 11:20 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I see people at 5NL do this all the time with a hand like A10. I think you need to include a few other hands in his range besides the flush. If he has the completed flush it's a fold, but if he has any two pair hand or even a straight it's a snap call since we have the NFD and in some cases an OESD.
[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

Problem officer...?
 
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JR9477
Old 01-11-2010, 01:08 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 He raises a lot preflop for a passive player
(Josh)
 
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Fnord
Old 01-11-2010, 05:03 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Don't fold. In retrospect a turn check would have been nice, but that's very opponent driven.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Raoni_Poker
Old 01-11-2010, 02:21 PM #6 (permalink)  
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He seems not to be that passive as he raises PF 24% of the time. However, I think he has the flush many times here. If he had hit the flop any other way (with a pair, 2 pairs or a set) he would lead the betting to extract value from possible draws you migth have (and to avoid giving a free card to you).

Second possibilily here: he could be semi-bluffing. If he has a Jh he has the same combo draw you have. If he has Qh and Kh he could also take this line with a high flush draw. However, this is a very limited part of his range, so...I would not call the raise.

I would check behind the turn because a fourth card of hearts could give him a lower flush and you might get a cheap showdown if you miss your draw.
 
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shallam
Old 01-11-2010, 04:15 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Interesting hand.

Initially it looks like an easy fold - you are beat by a whole bunch of different AX hands both those that have you out kicked and those that hit their bottom card. There are lots of two pair, set, straight type of hands you couuld be up against and of course even more like your opp very well may have the flush.

OTOH, you have the nut flush draw -- indicating that you are at least drawing live (unless he has a st flush/sfdraw! ). You might have 3 additional outs if you are up against AT or AK.

Prior to doing the math it does look a fold, but the nut flush draw makes it a hard fold to make.


I think it's a good idea to throw in a little poker math here. The difficult part is setting the hand ranges. Here is what I came up with:

70% chance of flush ---- 14% equity (10% to overall equity)

15% AT type hand ------- 39% equity (6% to overall equity)

15% straight -------- 20% (3% to overall equity)

-----overall equity = 19%* or 4 to 1 card odds.

------your pot odds are 1.5 to 1.


Your card odds are much longer than your pot odds.


Fold.
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inV1NCEble
Old 01-14-2010, 03:32 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Srr for not replying sooner, but I didn't have acces to internet the whole week. 2Fnord&Raoni: I totally agree. My first thought after betting the turn was that a turn check would've been better. After rereading the hh and your reactions I'm more leaning towards a call, but I'm still thinking this is typical microstakes behaviour for fishes who catch a flush.

About him being agressive or not, it might be a typo. I'm gonna check it out when I'm home. Unless I'm missing something obvious I don't see how can have a AF of 0 and a PFR of 24..

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shallam
Old 01-14-2010, 03:46 PM #9 (permalink)  
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BTW if he has a Jh or 7h he has OESFD & you have 2 fewer outs. I say that partially because it does seem that him having one of those two cards is moderately likely.
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!Luck
Old 01-14-2010, 04:58 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 you need 1.74 pot odds to call. Ignoring river.
Code:
2,464  games     0.005 secs   492,800  games/sec

Board: Ac 9h 8h Th
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	34.619%  	30.24% 	04.38% 	           745 	      108.00   { AhJc }
Hand 1: 	65.381%  	61.00% 	04.38% 	          1503 	      108.00   { TT-88, ATs+, QJs, 76s, ATo+, 76o }
According to your equity you need 1.9. So it comes down if you think he can do this as a bluff. I do not think a fold is that terrible here.
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