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philly and the phanatics
Old 09-19-2010, 04:27 PM     Post subject: aces up 10nl #1 (permalink)  
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philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough
 Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($10.41)
CO ($6.90)
Button ($4.63)
SB ($14.26)
BB ($10.10)
UTG ($17.32)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, A
2 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 2 folds, SB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) A, 3, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.85, SB calls $0.85

Turn: ($2.55) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.20, SB calls $2.20

River: ($6.95) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero folds

Total pot: $6.95 | Rake: $0.46

Villain is 50/25 over 4 hands rofl so really nothing to go on, but the way he passively played this hand and then shoved the river screamed flush to me, i was considering shoving non club rivers, but now my plan is fucked to holy hell with him basically putting me all in.

i need ~ 31% equity to be able to call profitably and im not sure i have it. i doubt he turns Ax into a bluff like this here, so it basically looks like slow played sets and most obviously, flushes (obviously sets discounted because he didnt raise ever)
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OngBonga
Old 09-19-2010, 04:51 PM #2 (permalink)  
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OngBonga can only hope to improve
 I think we can call this, but maybe I'm not giving him enough club hands.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

42 games 0.046 secs 913 games/sec

Board: Ac 6c 3h Qd 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.619% 42.86% 04.76% 18 2.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 52.381% 47.62% 04.76% 20 2.00 { AA, QQ, 88, 66, 33, AQs, A8s, A6s, A3s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, AQo, A8o, A6o, A3o }


---
There's hands I leave out that we beat, stuff like AK or 86s, but I consider these unlikely, and we have the required equity to call without the need to put hopeful hands in his range.
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Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
ongies gonna ong
 
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spoonitnow
Old 09-19-2010, 04:53 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 The two pairs OngBonga has suggested for Villain's range aren't all that likely because he's not been more aggressive on the flop or turn, yet decided to pot the river when the scare card came.
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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BLURI
Old 09-19-2010, 04:56 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Folding seems like a good decision here.

I've many times in the past 3-4 days seen (i'm also playing 10nl) that villains tend to check/call 2 streets with monsters, and then bet big on the river. Even if the board is wet!

Were often against a flush at this spot, but i wouldn't be suprised if he shows up with a set.
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OngBonga
Old 09-19-2010, 04:56 PM #5 (permalink)  
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OngBonga can only hope to improve
 Fair comment spoon.
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Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
ongies gonna ong
 
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OngBonga
Old 09-19-2010, 05:01 PM #6 (permalink)  
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OngBonga can only hope to improve
 Ok, I tried a different range and we're cutting it fine...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18 games 0.005 secs 3,600 games/sec

Board: Ac 6c 3h Qd 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 88, A8s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c7c, A8o }


---
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
ongies gonna ong
 
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OngBonga
Old 09-19-2010, 05:04 PM #7 (permalink)  
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OngBonga can only hope to improve
 I'm still not thinking very clearly... 88 is unlikely to be in his range, without that it's better for us, up to 40%..
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

15 games 0.005 secs 3,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 6c 3h Qd 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { A8s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c7c, A8o }


---

I must confess, I'm not sure how we reach 40% when we have just A8 in his range that we beat and all those clubs that we lose to.
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Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
ongies gonna ong
 
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spoonitnow
Old 09-19-2010, 06:27 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
I'm still not thinking very clearly... 88 is unlikely to be in his range, without that it's better for us, up to 40%..
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

15 games 0.005 secs 3,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 6c 3h Qd 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { A8s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c7c, A8o }


---

I must confess, I'm not sure how we reach 40% when we have just A8 in his range that we beat and all those clubs that we lose to.
How-To: Calculating Hand Combinations, About Blockers, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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supa
Old 09-19-2010, 06:52 PM #9 (permalink)  
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supa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of light
 Honestly, I don't understand how he has A8 in his range. If he does, doesn't he have a ton of other Ax crap? Seems like AK is far more likely, which is the same # of combos so it doesn't matter much cuz we beat them both anyway. But if we add some combos of AT+ we're crushing him. Although adding combos that we beat but might not exist is my biggest fail cuz I talk myself into calling when I shouldn't.
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start using your brain more and vagina less
 
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Pelion
Old 09-19-2010, 07:54 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supahaole View Post
Honestly, I don't understand how he has A8 in his range. If he does, doesn't he have a ton of other Ax crap? Seems like AK is far more likely, which is the same # of combos so it doesn't matter much cuz we beat them both anyway. But if we add some combos of AT+ we're crushing him. Although adding combos that we beat but might not exist is my biggest fail cuz I talk myself into calling when I shouldn't.
until the river yes. When he bets that river, Ax one pair is unlikely.
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philly and the phanatics
Old 09-19-2010, 08:23 PM #11 (permalink)  
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philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
I'm still not thinking very clearly... 88 is unlikely to be in his range, without that it's better for us, up to 40%..
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

15 games 0.005 secs 3,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 6c 3h Qd 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { A8s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c7c, A8o }


---

I must confess, I'm not sure how we reach 40% when we have just A8 in his range that we beat and all those clubs that we lose to.
with no sets and A8s in his range i have 18% equity vs the flushes you gave him
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dranger7070
Old 09-21-2010, 04:24 PM #12 (permalink)  
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lol fold
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