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Ace considered a brick in this spot vs loose/passive?

  
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 05:10 AM     Post subject: Ace considered a brick in this spot vs loose/passive? #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 33/0 over 9 hands. Seen him OPEN-LIMP Q8o on the Button.

Put him all in on the turn? I think I might be able to classify the ace as a brick but I'm not sure.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($6.10)
MP3 ($3.05)
CO ($10.24)
Hero (Button) ($5.05)
SB ($5.02)
BB ($6.24)
UTG ($6.57)
UTG+1 ($10.98)
MP1 ($6)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, J
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.05, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.97) 7, 9, J (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.65, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.27) A (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets pot?
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Revolver123
Old 02-27-2009, 05:19 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I think that would be a standard play to put him all in on the turn given his stack size. Especially considering your read is that he really sucks but given that, he could have any two cards, including J9 or J7.

I think the ace is a brick in most situations but then again, it is 5NL and it's not outside of his range to have A7 or A9 either. I would probably push him all in, I don't see how you could check behind this turn.
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POKEMONS
Old 02-27-2009, 05:19 AM #3 (permalink)  

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I definitely bet/fold the turn.

I don't think you need to full pot the turn, but just a standard 2/3 pot sized bet gives him bad odds to draw to a flush/straight and he will call you with worse a good % of the time.
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 05:30 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by POKEMONS
I definitely bet/fold the turn.

I don't think you need to full pot the turn, but just a standard 2/3 pot sized bet gives him bad odds to draw to a flush/straight and he will call you with worse a good % of the time.
ROFL

Seriously, you're willing to put in ~$2.50 and fold to a 30 cent reraise? Please tell me you're kidding. If you are willing to bet 2/3 and fold when he ships for a fraction of the pot, you must be leaking money out the ass.

It's either push or check, I advocate for checking tbh. Just because he open limped Q8o doesn't mean he can't have an Ax hand here. People like to get "tricky" and check/ship with all sorts of nonsense.

Check behind, if river bricks, see what he does. If he just shoves I think its a pretty easy fold. If he just checks bet around half pot and call his shove.

I say bet pot, because I don't think some of his Jx hands will call an open shove, but will be willing to call a smaller bet. (It's ridiculously flawed thinking, I know, but trust me lol.) You will get a lot more value out of his Jx rag hands and not be limiting his range to Ax or two pair+ like you would be if you just shove turn imo.
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 05:31 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Sorry in that last paragraph I meant "I say bet 1/2 pot" not pot.
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POKEMONS
Old 02-27-2009, 05:41 AM #6 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
Quote:
Originally Posted by POKEMONS
I definitely bet/fold the turn.

I don't think you need to full pot the turn, but just a standard 2/3 pot sized bet gives him bad odds to draw to a flush/straight and he will call you with worse a good % of the time.
ROFL

Seriously, you're willing to put in ~$2.50 and fold to a 30 cent reraise? Please tell me you're kidding. If you are willing to bet 2/3 and fold when he ships for a fraction of the pot, you must be leaking money out the ass.

It's either push or check, I advocate for checking tbh. Just because he open limped Q8o doesn't mean he can't have an Ax hand here. People like to get "tricky" and check/ship with all sorts of nonsense.

Check behind, if river bricks, see what he does. If he just shoves I think its a pretty easy fold. If he just checks bet around half pot and call his shove.

I say bet pot, because I don't think some of his Jx hands will call an open shove, but will be willing to call a smaller bet. (It's ridiculously flawed thinking, I know, but trust me lol.) You will get a lot more value out of his Jx rag hands and not be limiting his range to Ax or two pair+ like you would be if you just shove turn imo.
Woops didn't look at stack sizes lol. I'd just put him AI FWIW and expect to get a lot of folds, get snapped by Ax, and get called by worse jacks/draws often.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 05:50 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 Even though hands like Ax are in his range, looking back I don't see him having an ace alot. The thing is though, what am I getting value out of by putting him all in on this particular turn card? He might even fold a J if he's scared of the A, so in a way I turn my hand into a bluff, but he might be bad enough to call with garbage anyway.

I ended up checking behind, and I'll add the rivercard in a moment to initiate some more discussion.

Also, the note on him open limping Q8o from late position is a good indication that he's limp calling my raise with a bad hand.
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 06:00 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Yes, I know why you stated that he limped Q8o on the button. A3o is a bad hand as well. Isn't possible that he could have A-rag and limp it?

The best part is, when they do have A-rag and the ace hits one of two things happen:

1.) They play it like the nuts.

2.) They are too scared of better Aces to bet it, which totally negates the reason for calling with it PF lol.

(Those two points have nothing to do with this conversation, I just think its funny )

I'm glad you advocated checking behind here. That is exactly what I would have done, and is the same thing I posted before, and it was for the exact same reasons. Can't wait to see what the river brings lol.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 06:09 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 dranger he may very well have A rag coming in preflop, but alot of them aren't in his calling range on the flop since all he will have is Ace high - no kicker. That's why I think I maybe should have bet, because really the only aces we'll see in his hand at this point will include a jack, 7, 9 or maybe a 10.
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 06:19 AM #10 (permalink)  
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I can agree with that, but it wouldn't shock me to see him call with A7 or A9 on that flop, or even AT looking for the gutshot.

Also, I'm not saying his range is comprised of ONLY Aces here. I think you are right that he will not have an ace as that flop misses him the majority of the time. I just feel that you will get more value by checking back the turn then bet/calling the river.
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POKEMONS
Old 02-27-2009, 06:21 AM #11 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
I can agree with that, but it wouldn't shock me to see him call with A7 or A9 on that flop, or even AT looking for the gutshot.

Also, I'm not saying his range is comprised of ONLY Aces here. I think you are right that he will not have an ace as that flop misses him the majority of the time. I just feel that you will get more value by checking back the turn then bet/calling the river.
I disagree here because of the numerous number of draws villain can have on the turn.
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 06:23 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Numerous? REALLY? He has a backdoor and a gutshot. That doesn't seem too numerous to me. If he really wants to call with a backdoor flush draw on flop, please, be my guest. And I'm willing to give up a POTENTIAL one street of value vs. a gut shot and get more value out of his TPNK hands on the river.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 06:26 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
I can agree with that, but it wouldn't shock me to see him call with A7 or A9 on that flop, or even AT looking for the gutshot.

Also, I'm not saying his range is comprised of ONLY Aces here. I think you are right that he will not have an ace as that flop misses him the majority of the time. I just feel that you will get more value by checking back the turn then bet/calling the river.
I was thinking the same thing when I checked behind. Okay here comes the river:

River: ($2.27) K (2 players)
MP3 bets $0.95, Hero says: Gazadooks!

How wide of a range could we assign villain to bet here after we checkkkk the turn. Remember he's loose/passive, so I'm sort of stumped on to what he would bet into us vs what he would just check call. I believe he has a bluff frequency of near 0% based on how I saw him play a hand before, so he's got something. I'm looking for some input on what you guys think his betting range is here so I can run the EV calculation on calling.
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POKEMONS
Old 02-27-2009, 06:28 AM #14 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
Numerous? REALLY? He has a backdoor and a gutshot. That doesn't seem too numerous to me. If he really wants to call with a backdoor flush draw on flop, please, be my guest. And I'm willing to give up a POTENTIAL one street of value vs. a gut shot and get more value out of his TPNK hands on the river.
First off we aren't getting value out of TPNK. We are getting value out of Jx / 9x and draws.

Second of all as for the number of draws villain can have here:

Straight draws on the flop, all of which given OP's reads are likely to peel the flop.
KQ, QT, 86, 56, T6, KT, 85, 98, JT, 78, T7, Q8, T9

Villain can show up with random clubs in this spot just because of the wide range of hands he's peeling with on the flop. For example many of the straight draws he has may contain two clubs he could easily have Jx or 7x with two clubs in his hand as well.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 06:29 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
Numerous? REALLY? He has a backdoor and a gutshot. That doesn't seem too numerous to me. If he really wants to call with a backdoor flush draw on flop, please, be my guest. And I'm willing to give up a POTENTIAL one street of value vs. a gut shot and get more value out of his TPNK hands on the river.
I think he meant on the turn, because theres an OESD and a FD. Plus whatever other outs he has if he's got a pair. We're talking about checking behind on the turn here not the flop remember.
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 06:32 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by POKEMONS
Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
Numerous? REALLY? He has a backdoor and a gutshot. That doesn't seem too numerous to me. If he really wants to call with a backdoor flush draw on flop, please, be my guest. And I'm willing to give up a POTENTIAL one street of value vs. a gut shot and get more value out of his TPNK hands on the river.
First off we aren't getting value out of TPNK. We are getting value out of Jx / 9x and draws.

Second of all as for the number of draws villain can have here:

Straight draws on the flop, all of which given OP's reads are likely to peel the flop.
KQ, QT, 86, 56, T6, KT, 85, 98, JT, 78, T7, Q8, T9

Villain can show up with random clubs in this spot just because of the wide range of hands he's peeling with on the flop. For example many of the straight draws he has may contain two clubs he could easily have Jx or 7x with two clubs in his hand as well.
You are 100% correct and I apologize. I was just looking for the most obvious draws lol (even though some of those should be pretty obvious).

I still advocate for checking the turn despite this.
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POKEMONS
Old 02-27-2009, 06:38 AM #17 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
Quote:
Originally Posted by POKEMONS
Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
Numerous? REALLY? He has a backdoor and a gutshot. That doesn't seem too numerous to me. If he really wants to call with a backdoor flush draw on flop, please, be my guest. And I'm willing to give up a POTENTIAL one street of value vs. a gut shot and get more value out of his TPNK hands on the river.
First off we aren't getting value out of TPNK. We are getting value out of Jx / 9x and draws.

Second of all as for the number of draws villain can have here:

Straight draws on the flop, all of which given OP's reads are likely to peel the flop.
KQ, QT, 86, 56, T6, KT, 85, 98, JT, 78, T7, Q8, T9

Villain can show up with random clubs in this spot just because of the wide range of hands he's peeling with on the flop. For example many of the straight draws he has may contain two clubs he could easily have Jx or 7x with two clubs in his hand as well.
You are 100% correct and I apologize. I was just looking for the most obvious draws lol (even though some of those should be pretty obvious).

I still advocate for checking the turn despite this.
Fair enough, but just keep in mind that there are many river cards that can come that put you in a shitty spot.

Micro, I just shove river here. The river card is a good card since only one draw hit and you're ahead of Ax now. You will definitely be behind sometimes but this guy will show up with Ax and worse 2pairs enough to make it a profitable shove. I doubt he is ever folding any piece of this board in this spot too.
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Old 02-27-2009, 06:43 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Ok, like you said, villain obviously has something because I don't think many 33/0's decide to think "O hell I bluff!" although I don't think we can COMPLETELY discount it. Maybe like 5% of his range is bluffs.

QT is definitely in his range and I would actually expect to see this fairlyoften.

Weaker two pairs (K7, K9, etc)

An Ace still wouldnt surprise me.

I don't expect to see a naked K for the most part just for the simple fact of why would he call a flop c-bet with K high? I mean I guess it could be a float, and checking the turn opens it up for him to bet the river, but I don't think thats the case. Or maybe KT or KQ for the gutshot with overs, but I still don't like it. Although it could explain him waking up on the river all of a sudden.

Ok so here is the range I am assigning him (this is pretty tight for the micros and I expect to be surprised a lot lol)

Ax (usually A7 or A9), Jx, QT, KT, KQ, K7, K9, QJ.

I'm sure that some of you will be able to come up with a much wider range, but my handreading skills aren't very premium lol, and I figure these are the hands that we will see the most. Also, I don't think he's going to be bluffing his missed draws here very often.

I'm eager to see what others have to say about this.
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Old 02-27-2009, 06:45 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Scratch QJ, I don't think he will bet a J on the river when another over hit.

Also I like POKEMONS advice to shove the river. He doesn't have much left and we kill the majority of his range.
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Old 02-27-2009, 06:49 AM #20 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
Ok, like you said, villain obviously has something because I don't think many 33/0's decide to think "O hell I bluff!" although I don't think we can COMPLETELY discount it. Maybe like 5% of his range is bluffs.

QT is definitely in his range and I would actually expect to see this fairlyoften.

Weaker two pairs (K7, K9, etc)

An Ace still wouldnt surprise me.

I don't expect to see a naked K for the most part just for the simple fact of why would he call a flop c-bet with K high? I mean I guess it could be a float, and checking the turn opens it up for him to bet the river, but I don't think thats the case. Or maybe KT or KQ for the gutshot with overs, but I still don't like it. Although it could explain him waking up on the river all of a sudden.

Ok so here is the range I am assigning him (this is pretty tight for the micros and I expect to be surprised a lot lol)

Ax (usually A7 or A9), Jx, QT, KT, KQ, K7, K9, QJ.

I'm sure that some of you will be able to come up with a much wider range, but my handreading skills aren't very premium lol, and I figure these are the hands that we will see the most. Also, I don't think he's going to be bluffing his missed draws here very often.

I'm eager to see what others have to say about this.

I think this is a good range to give him on the river. Only thing I would mention is I think we see A8/AT about as often as A7/A9. Of course a 33/0 can also show up with AK/AQ here too.

Against this range we have 64% and I doubt he folds any of it to a shove.
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Old 02-27-2009, 06:57 AM #21 (permalink)  
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Just realized, don't count out a set, a lot of micro players will "slowplay" their flopped sets in hopes that someone else will bet for them. And yes, calling on the flop with a set would be standard for them, hoping we bet the turn A and be able to shove over.

So my new range would be 77, 99, JJ, A7, A9, Jx, A8, AT, AK, AQ, QT, KQ, K7, K9

Our equity vs. this range is ~61% so easy river shove over.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 07:01 AM #22 (permalink)  
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 Guys his check/calling range may be wide but his betting range is tight. Remember, he's very, very passive. I'm ruling out bluffing because even though it looks like I just made a standard c-bet, missed, and am preparing to check it down, the turn and river both hit my raising range well. However, his range makes so many 2 pairs + that straight that I think the most I can do is call, in fact TBH I considered folding which is why I pondered about betting the turn since it would eliminate any decisions to be made on the river. I don't think shoving into this opponent is a good play because of his narrow betting range on the river.

Due to this I think the only top/pair type hand I'm getting bet into here would be AT.
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Old 02-27-2009, 07:05 AM #23 (permalink)  
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If you look at the range I assigned him, it is almost nothing but sets, two pairs, and big ace hands. For the Jx I put in like 2 or 3 random J's like JT or J8, but I also put in J7 and J9.

You are crushing his range so hard right now folding shouldn't cross your mind. The majority of the range I gave him are two pair+ hands.

I still thinking shoving here isn't going to be -EV. If you lost the hand, thats unfortunate, but I think you will be ahead of him more than often enough to make that shove profitable.
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Old 02-27-2009, 07:09 AM #24 (permalink)  
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 The outcome doesn't matter. I'm thinking about EV here. I think your range is good, but I'd drop KQ and AK and Jx because he isn't betting KQ, or Jx other than Jx's that make 2 pairs and let's just assume he raises AK preflop.

(sorry if it sounds like I'm 'instructing' here on his range, I just realized that I'd never do analysis on spots like this if I didn't post them on FTR, plus this has got to benefit some folks reading)

Your def. right about shoving if we are ahead of his range though because he's calling 100% of his betting range here for sure.
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Old 02-27-2009, 07:13 AM #25 (permalink)  
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Even though you are pretty much weighting his range to be what I think is pretty much the best he will show up with, we still beat it with 57% equity. Still a river shove.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 07:26 AM #26 (permalink)  
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 How's this range:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

75 games 0.005 secs 15,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 9c Js Ac Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.333% 62.67% 02.67% 47 2.00 { JJ, 99, 77, AJs-A9s, A7s, KJs, K9s, QTs, J9s, AJo-A9o, A7o, KJo, K9o, QTo, J9o }
Hand 1: 34.667% 32.00% 02.67% 24 2.00 { KsJh }

Pot = $2.27 + $0.95 = $3.22 facing $0.95 to call, which is roughly 3:1, which works out to 25% in percentage form. So we need greater than 25% equity to shove right? Or is that wrong.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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Old 02-27-2009, 07:46 AM #27 (permalink)  
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No, I think its just 25% equity to call and break even. If we shove, we still get called by roughly the same range, plus you have to factor in fold equity (no matter how small it may be) and I think it is fine to shove the river.

Ok, I just went to spoon's new website and figured it out like we were calling his shove not shoving ourselves. According to his equations we do this:

We take our equity % (32) and multiply it by the amount we will win ($4.37). Then we multiply the villains equity % (68) and multiply it by the amount we will lose ($2.10 if we are just calling his open shove, which we aren't but for the sake of argument go with it).

.32*4.37=~$1.40
.68*2.10=~$1.43

Then we subtract the second equation from the first so:

1.40-1.43= -.03

So it would be -$.03 to call an open shove on the river. Since we aren't doing that, and we are the one putting him all in, I think this play is breakeven, maybe slightly profitable. But the point is is that it isn't a bad move to put him all in here. It's pretty much a toss up in calling or shoving. I advocate for shoving since a (small) % of the time he will fold his bluffs (even though we have discounted those from his range).
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 08:01 AM #28 (permalink)  
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 Ok just a couple things:

We have no fold equity here ever - this guy isn't folding a better hand if we shove (which is basically a min raise given his stack size)

If we raise, we're assuming he calls 100% of his betting range because it's so tight. Because of this, as long as we're >25% equity we can shove to get more money in the pot when we're ahead.

About him open shoving river - if it's break/even we lose to the rake. This type of player would never do that without the nuts though.

Because pokerstove just equally considered every possible holding, I think to do a more in-depth analysis, we need to add weights to specific hands. In that case, I'm weighing more like 60% straights and sets and 40% 2 pairs + AT. In that case, I think we may be facing a -EV decision on calling his bet. I'm also thinking about eliminating 97 from his range.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 08:05 AM #29 (permalink)  
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omfg... this thread is bordering on the verge of ridiculousness now. ITS 5NL. You have fold equity where in the craziest ass spots. A guy could literally put all but one cent of his stack in and fold for that last cent. I don't think you realize how stupid some of these guys are.

You obviously lost this hand and are trying to make it -EV to call or even shove over because that is what you want to hear. Seriously, you are weighting his range so heavily toward the nuts that its disgusting.

Like I said, its $5nl, these guys arent 200nl regs here. They are fucking dumb, and will bet/fold here with a bluff, and call with so much worse it is +EV and I am willing to bet any amount of money on that.
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Old 02-27-2009, 08:10 AM #30 (permalink)  
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I guess I don't hate shoving turn, but I'd probably check. Sure he's probably dumb and will call you with worse anyway. But sometimes he may fold something we beat here, that will call a river bet.

Check behind, bet river if checked to. Call if he bets ldo.
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Old 02-27-2009, 08:10 AM #31 (permalink)  
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And if you think ANY 33/0 at 5nl will fold 2pair like 97 you SERIOUSLY do not understand the game you are playing. I mean come on, did the fish at 2nl ever fold this? Sure its a lil out there for US to call with 97 to a PF raise, but to these guys its, "well i could hit a flop." Please, read through your last posts and tell me that it isn't getting sad how much you want him to have the nuts.
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 08:14 AM #32 (permalink)  
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Also you stated that you wanted to know the EV of calling his bet. Well, I gave it to you, yet you continue, to dispute that it is a -EV call which I don't understand. But whatever. You seem to have a decent amount of knowledge in your game, please use it and understand the level of players you are playing. He's a 33/0, he is loose as hell, he will call with worse more often than better.

Villain calling with worse = +EV.
Villain bet/folding to our river shove over= +EV
EVEN THE RARE OCCASION WE ARE BEAT BECAUSE WE ARE AHEAD THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME= +EV
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 08:22 AM #33 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
omfg... this thread is bordering on the verge of ridiculousness now. ITS 5NL. You have fold equity where in the craziest ass spots. A guy could literally put all but one cent of his stack in and fold for that last cent. I don't think you realize how stupid some of these guys are.

You obviously lost this hand and are trying to make it -EV to call or even shove over because that is what you want to hear. Seriously, you are weighting his range so heavily toward the nuts that its disgusting.

Like I said, its $5nl, these guys arent 200nl regs here. They are fucking dumb, and will bet/fold here with a bluff, and call with so much worse it is +EV and I am willing to bet any amount of money on that.
Fold equity means we're folding out a better hand. We do not have fold equity here, what better hand is folding here?

If we're going to do the generalize thing and make assumptions based on $5NL players overall, if anything 'because its $5NL' we're getting called with alot of crazy shit because of the gross amount of stations. We do not have fold equity in this situation period, only worse hands will fold. If we deicide to raise his river bet it is strictly for value.

I'm weighing his range so heavily toward a better hand given the information I have on him: He is very, very passive and he does not bluff. This situation changes so much if you put a TAG in here. In fact, if we were facing a TAG this situation wouldn't exist because he would have raised the EP limper preflop.

You can't just say 'oh its $5NL he's betting garbage here I snap call'. Look at the player, consider what a bet means from that player, and then adjust. When facing a very passive, cautious, meek player, a bet is usually an indication of strength. Relatively, on this board our hand isn't that strong.

I know some players will b/f here but this guy doesn't fit that category. We're seeing a showdown if he's betting the river, he's a loose/passive cautious type of player and he's showing up with a real hand when he bets. FWIW because of all this information I ran the timer down here before my decision so I could think about what types of hands he is playing following his line of [preflop: limp/call raise Flop: check/call Turn: check River: Bet], I don't just auto-call because '$5NL players are donks'.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Old 02-27-2009, 08:27 AM #34 (permalink)  
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I never once said, "o its only 5nl, snapcall" What I was trying to say was, he isn't going to have nut every time. And you have NINE HANDS on this guy. WOW what a sample. Thats what one WHOLE orbit? Dude, omfg that means he's played 3 hands, none of them for raises. WOW LOOK OUT. HES GOTTA BE A LOOSE/WEAK PLAYER WHO DOESN'T HAVE THE MENTAL CAPACITY TO BET WITHOUT THE NUTS.

Spare me. If you had 40-50+ hands that said that this player was weak (including Aggression Factor) then i might be a little more swayed by your argument of him being so weak he doesn't know where the bet button is.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 08:28 AM #35 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
And if you think ANY 33/0 at 5nl will fold 2pair like 97 you SERIOUSLY do not understand the game you are playing. I mean come on, did the fish at 2nl ever fold this? Sure its a lil out there for US to call with 97 to a PF raise, but to these guys its, "well i could hit a flop." Please, read through your last posts and tell me that it isn't getting sad how much you want him to have the nuts.
No he's not folding 97 postlfop because he has 2 pair. He's folding it preflop because he's timid and I made a big raise.

How is it bad that I'm weighing him more towards a big hand? He's passive and timid, the draw got there, he checked the first 2 streets to us. This looks alot like a set or a straight to me at worst some sort of 2 pair hand, given the information about the player.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 08:31 AM #36 (permalink)  
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It's not bad you are weighting him towards a big hand, but his range isn't going to be ALL BIG HANDS like you seem to want it to be, the majority of which beat us.

And also, I never once said he's folding 97 on the flop or PF. I said some people (a 33/0 being one of them) could definitely call a preflop (thats wut PF means) raise with it especially if its suited and with a caller in front (if he's even thinking about that).
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 08:32 AM #37 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
I never once said, "o its only 5nl, snapcall" What I was trying to say was, he isn't going to have nut every time. And you have NINE HANDS on this guy. WOW what a sample. Thats what one WHOLE orbit? Dude, omfg that means he's played 3 hands, none of them for raises. WOW LOOK OUT. HES GOTTA BE A LOOSE/WEAK PLAYER WHO DOESN'T HAVE THE MENTAL CAPACITY TO BET WITHOUT THE NUTS.

Spare me. If you had 40-50+ hands that said that this player was weak (including Aggression Factor) then i might be a little more swayed by your argument of him being so weak he doesn't know where the bet button is.
I don't think 40 or 50 more hands would make much of a difference. After seeing him play another hand where he went to showdown I have a pretty good idea on what this player is like. All of his lines he took weren't that of a strong player. So even though it's only 9 hands, I'm pretty sure we can still make some assumptions because of how bad he's played so far.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 08:34 AM #38 (permalink)  
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Yes you can make SOME assumptions, but sample size is certainly a factor in this situation. It obviously matters how he played a hand before, but I would prefer more than ONE hand, and before I'm "sure" of a read I like to have more than one orbit on the table with the guy.

I like to think I'm fairly decent at picking up on when a player is good/bad loose/tight strong/weak but its the rare occasion when I can figure that out within 9 hands.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 08:45 AM #39 (permalink)  
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 Open limped Q8o on button, checked all three streets heads up vs BB.

That's enough information by itself to know this player is weak. You don't need a big sample to realize that this guy is bad. Strong players do not make plays like this period.

How is this player not obviously weak? Oh right only 9 hands...might as well ignore everything he does until I've seen it 100 times. He can't be weak just because he open-limped Q8o without any intention of bluffing at the pot postlfop.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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chipblight
Old 02-27-2009, 08:46 AM #40 (permalink)  

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i bet more on flop to chase him out and like 3/4 pot to fold on turn but who am i
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 08:48 AM #41 (permalink)  
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I never once said that he isn't a weak player. I simply stated that having one instance is not enough to know for 100% fact that he is INCAPABLE of bluffing. Seriously, I hope to one day sit at your table. You will be so easy to exploit if you get reads this fast. Change gears after every orbit imo, so you are so sure of your read after ONE hand. Good luck with that.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 08:52 AM #42 (permalink)  
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 I didnt' say he was 100% incapable of bluffing.
But he is 100% for sure a weak player.

Judging by the way the hand was played out and the texture of the board (which clearly you don't take into consideration since you're the OMG I HAVE 2 PAIR SWEET type player), KJ is looking all that great.

FWIW I don't automatically get reads this fast. It just depends. Sometimes it will take a long time to figure someone out, othertimes they just give alot away early.

What's your Stars SN?
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 08:55 AM #43 (permalink)  
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dranger7070, same as my name on here. PLEASE look me up on a 6-max table some time. I actually had respect for your game before this thread, now not so much. You are obviously pretty weak/tight if you considered folding this river. And no, I'm not the "OMG I HAVE 2 PAIR SWEET" type of player but obviously your reads are so rock solid off the get go, theres no way I'm going to convince u otherwise which works out great for me.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 09:04 AM #44 (permalink)  
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 I'm weak tight because I considered folding when a player who I assumed to be very, very passive bets and I had a draw weighted heavily in the range I assigned to him? Ok... I wasn't folding anyway but w/e.

Against a different player my thought process would have been different.

Anyway it's fine if you don't respect my game. But please, if you're going to berate me, at the very least you should be a good player.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 09:07 AM #45 (permalink)  
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lmao, wutever i must be a terrible player because im grinding up from $10 right? I must be a bad player because I've managed to turn $10 into $100+. Dude seriously, screw it, I was trying to help you out, but apparently your "amazing reads and superior thought processes" are beyond me, so by all means continue to play your game without any outside help. I thought thats what this forum was for.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 09:07 AM #46 (permalink)  
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 BTW you play 6-max...full ring is more of a nut-camp so you're probably used to seeing more aggro-donk players and even more trashy hands showing up here.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

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Old 02-27-2009, 09:07 AM #47 (permalink)  
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I do play 6-max but I've also played a lot of FR. Especially during January so I'm not completely oblivious.
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Old 02-27-2009, 09:14 AM #48 (permalink)  
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 I've turned $50 into $270. You don't have to be that good to beat the micros. So when I say please be a good player before you berate my game, winning some money at $2NL or $5NL doesn't make you good enough to start trash talking someone who's at the same level you are.

I didn't claim that I always have superior reads on everyone so if you could please stop putting words into my mouth that'd be great. Just because I feel like I have a strong read here doesn't mean I always do.

And for you thinking we actually have fold equity by raising the river bet...that's almost more ridiculous than If I were to fold this river. Maybe you don't know what Fold equity means?
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Old 02-27-2009, 09:22 AM #49 (permalink)  
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I understood fold equity to mean how sure we are that the villain will fold to a bet/raise. Obviously, I could be wrong. But if I am shit happens, it equates to the same thing. People will fold after putting the most ridiculous amount of money in on a bluff, especially at the stakes WE are playing. And I'm not putting words in your mouth, I am merely trying to show you how u are presenting yourself. You refuse to think that this guy could have less than a nut hand because of how he played Q8o on the button.

This shit is laughable. And I never said I was a good player either, in fact I'm quite certain I'm NOT that good which is why I decided to do my operation, so I could get better as I moved up the stakes. You however, have this superior attitude towards me which I still don't quite understand. I'll admit I have turned into an asshole the last couple of posts, but that is only because you refuse to acknowledge an outside way of thinking. I was offering an alternative way of thinking/playing the hand and apparently according to you I'm so far off I might as well be brain dead lol. Apparently you only listen to the people who have more posts or something, idk. Whatever it is, I wish you luck on your operation. Seriously, if you aren't willing to accept a different view, you will need it when you get higher stakes.
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Old 02-27-2009, 09:27 AM #50 (permalink)  
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O and for what its worth, just searched definition of fold equity, I wasn't wrong.

Fold equity- is the equity a player can expect to gain due to the opponent folding to his or her bets.

I may have used it using a flawed definition (that fold equity is how often an opponent will fold) but it equates to the same thing for the simple fact that you take into account how often an opponent will fold when using fold equity.
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