|
Jibalob
|
07-28-2007, 11:42 PM
Post subject: AA winrate 20% after 2.5k hands????
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Out of my roll
Posts: 512
|
|
I've recently taken up "bonus whoring" and have enjoyed seeing my bankroll grow at a healthy rate. I recently signed up to pacific poker playing 1/2 limit 6-max as I've been told the play here is ultra loose.
Problem is, my AA winrate is around 20% and I'm getting close to long-term tilt. I've never experienced this level of (-ve) variance before and to be honest its getting pretty scary. Should I drop limits (I'm still rolled for 1/2) or just grind it out? I feel I should be absolutely crushing these games given the level of the opposition but its just not happening.
All advice greatly appreciated
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
bigspenda73
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
|
|
You play limit right?
If so, lol dawg, 2.5k hands is a session, you're allowed to run bad.
|
|
|
|
Jibalob
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Out of my roll
Posts: 512
|
|
20% with AA after 2.5k hands seems pretty bad to me?
|
|
|
|
bigspenda73
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
|
|
what is that, like 25 hands of AA?
It's called variance bub, and it's magnified greatly in limit because the edges are smaller. You're bound to run bad, it sounds like you're still winning money so you're probably running sick hot with EVERY other hand b/c if your winrate is 20% with AA you should be down.
|
|
|
|
poker_pup
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 130
|
|
I think, on average, you would only have eleven hands of pocket aces over 2.5K hands.
|
|
|
|
bigspenda73
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
|
|
lol, you're right, I screwed that up
That just makes it even more variance (smaller sample size)
|
|
|
|
Jibalob
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Out of my roll
Posts: 512
|
|
I'm not still winning since I got to Pacific... is there anything I should be changing to cope with the ultra loose play?
I'm talking 4/5 way pots every hand and 2/3 every showdown
|
|
|
|
flomo
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: mashing potatoes
Posts: 878
|
|
switch to NO Limit
pacific still sounds wonderful
just like i remember it 
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
Protect dog
|
|
|
Jibalob
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Out of my roll
Posts: 512
|
|
10 buy-ins and counting
|
|
|
|
bigspenda73
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
|
|
what's a buyin?
You are playing limit correct? Also, this is a bad beat thread that shouldn't be in this forum. Aces get cracked, guess what, they're only a 6:1 favorite against a random hand. Shit happens, it's limit, you're going to win 75-85% of your AA hands in the long run so who cares about a stretch of 2.5k hands. I've played 200k+ hands of limit, if AA is still a losing hand when you get there then you have a logical complaint.
|
|
|
|
Jibalob
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Out of my roll
Posts: 512
|
|
a buyin is $40, so I've nearly halved my BR since playing at pacific
|
|
|
|
donkbee
|
|
WELP
Join Date: May 2005
Location: so close but so far
Posts: 3,604
|
|
get used to running bad, it's gonna happen often if you keep playing this game.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.
|
|
|
Jibalob
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Out of my roll
Posts: 512
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by courtiebee
get used to running bad, it's gonna happen often if you keep playing this game.
|
If this is running bad then the 20 buyins tule is well off.. more like 40
|
|
|
|
donkbee
|
|
WELP
Join Date: May 2005
Location: so close but so far
Posts: 3,604
|
|
I actually agree with you. I am playing $100NL with 60 buyins, and I'm not playing anything at $200NL until I have 40 buyins minimum. I'm probably too conservative, but I really think that being safe about it is a good idea, especially if you can't afford to reload if you go broke.
If you start to run bad and you don't mind moving down in stakes, though, you don't have to have as many buyins.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.
|
|
|
bigspenda73
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
|
|
Wait, you've lost $800 at 1/2 limit?
That's not variance man, that's bad play.
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
The rake in small stakes Short Handed LHE is highway robbery.
Pacific is one of the most corrupt sites on the internet too.
|
|
|
|
lolzzz_321
|
|
NO YOU
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: My ice is polarized
Posts: 2,797
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
|
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
As much as we joke about it, I would say the chances of Pacific actually being rigged is considerably larger than zero.
It's well known that they screw over the winning players in other ways.
|
|
|
|
lolzzz_321
|
|
NO YOU
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: My ice is polarized
Posts: 2,797
|
|
I dunno too much about that, seemed ok I only played a few MTTs there but my friend won some money there and got all his moniez. DO they put a DoT on you then mind flay you?
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Stuff I've heard from credible sources (a lot of it is on 2+2, do a search)
o Not allowing winning players to participate in the rewards program
o Not aggressivly going after cheaters
o Keeping the money when they bust cheaters
o Not refunding money lost to server errors (Soupie has a story here)
o Having ties to organised crime
o Software crashes and makes errors that directly cost you money (might have gotten better since I left.)
I've been joking "LoL rigged" with you guys for a long time now. I even had a nice rakeback deal and made a bunch of money on the site. It's as fishy as hell because lots of good players are driven off or plain avoid it. That said, the site really really stinks. There are so many other straight up places where you can gamble online with enough fish to buy nice things.
|
|
|
|
Jibalob
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Out of my roll
Posts: 512
|
|
Well, a fresh day a fresh mind and I've reviewed my HHs to see that I wasn't playing badly (well, no worse than usual lol) but heres some stats for you:
V$PIP = 27.1 %
PFR = 16.3 %
Won Hands % =15.36
BB/100 = -22.58
|
|
|
|
bigspenda73
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
|
|
Here's a thought dude, post every AA hand you've played in those 2.5k hands and we'll see if you have any leaks. Do NOT include the results.
|
|
|
|
Jibalob
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Out of my roll
Posts: 512
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Here's a thought dude, post every AA hand you've played in those 2.5k hands and we'll see if you have any leaks. Do NOT include the results.
|
I already know that I was leaking bad on the river (and the turn on two occasions) when the two draw cards made up a fairly coordinated board, I apologise for this thread as I was serioulsy wound up when writing it.
I've lost my deposit on Pacific and dont plan on going back, it's awful. On several occasions pre-flop, instead of being given the choice of bet/call/fold it gave me the option muck/show cards which confused the hell outta me.
Another thing that I noticed when reviewing my Poker-Office stats was that almost everyone I played against had also lost around 7 or 8 BB/100 minimum which leads me to wonder just how bad the rake is. The few winners were the type that show down every hand and they were raking it in BIG time. I have never really suspected a site of being "dodgy" but I really do have my concerms over Pacific because every other site I'm averaging around 2.7 bb/100
|
|
|
|
Chopper
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Stuff I've heard from credible sources (a lot of it is on 2+2, do a search)
o Not allowing winning players to participate in the rewards program
o Not aggressivly going after cheaters
o Keeping the money when they bust cheaters
o Not refunding money lost to server errors (Soupie has a story here)
o Having ties to organised crime
o Software crashes and makes errors that directly cost you money (might have gotten better since I left.)
I've been joking "LoL rigged" with you guys for a long time now. I even had a nice Rakeback deal and made a bunch of money on the site. It's as fishy as hell because lots of good players are driven off or plain avoid it. That said, the site really really stinks. There are so many other straight up places where you can gamble online with enough fish to buy nice things. |
reason #7 JAIME GOLD is their poster-boy...and they're proud of it.
my bad, i he may have been Bodog...joke backfired. 
to OP, about AA, get ready for the upswing, it'll be fun.
|
|
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
|
|
Jibalob
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Out of my roll
Posts: 512
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Chopper
to OP, about AA, get ready for the upswing, it'll be fun.
|
I've recovered alot of my damages today playing SnGs, done a few hundred hands at 1/2 6max over the past hour or so and things are goin much better.
If I knew how to close the thread I would because I really need to learn that nobody cares if I've just bust out or whatever. 
|
|
|
|
donkbee
|
|
WELP
Join Date: May 2005
Location: so close but so far
Posts: 3,604
|
|
lol ... do you want me to lock it for you? Just say so and I will do it. Or we could just stop posting in it 
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.
|
|
|
Renton
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
|
|
lol, don't they rake uncalled bets at pacific?
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Renton
lol, don't they rake uncalled bets at Pacific? |
Yup, that too.
|
|
|
|
DBL0SVN
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 230
|
|
Pacific software does crash occasionally, but it's only a problem if you're in a tournie - it doesn't bother me playing ring. FWIW I'm making good steady money at 100NL. The abundance of fish more than makes up for minor software problems.
|
|
|
|
littleogre
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by courtiebee
lol ... do you want me to lock it for you? Just say so and I will do it. Or we could just stop posting in it |
Stop posting? A very strange and novel idea.
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
