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Warpe
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01-22-2007, 08:10 PM
Post subject: AA winrate
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Out of the last 85 times I've been dealt AA, I've 'won without showing' 39 times, or nearly half the time. My PTBB/Hand with AA is 2.91. Standard?
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bbqsquirrel
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 260
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My AA win rate is >7PTBB/100. I played mostly NL25 and I won the most with AA by reraising or 3-betting AI preflop. I've seen people call with half-decent hands from 88-QQ or AK to even crappier hands like AJ/KQ/QJ.
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zook
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01-22-2007, 08:54 PM
Post subject: Re: AA winrate
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#3 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I've won without showing 46 of the past 99 times I've gotten AA. My winrate is 2.95BB/100, second only to KK at 4.45BB/100 
edit: these are BB/hand, not /100
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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Small sample but AA is at 7.2ptbb/hand and KK is at 6.98ptbb/hand, I dont think either are _too_ far off [either up or down]
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I think i run something like 7PTBB/100 with AA.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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3.5ptBB/100 with AA and 5ptBB/100 with KK.
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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Seasider
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Bangor UK
Posts: 563
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AA 123 times 6.03ptBB/hand (not sure how to convert to /100)
KK 123 times (creepy I know) 1.19ptbb/100 (dont ask)
Sample 25K hands
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DubRod
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 112
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AA 116 times 91.38win%, 6.77bb/100, 74 times won without showdown.
KK on the other hand is at 1.76bb/100 
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Seasider
AA 123 times 6.03ptBB/hand (not sure how to convert to /100)
KK 123 times (creepy I know) 1.19ptbb/100 (dont ask)
Sample 25K hands
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Shit, just realized it is ptbb/hand, not ptbb/100 like most of us have.
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Senator7
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 19
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Not too long ago, one of the larger (Absolute or Pacific?) poker sites did an expected value analysis of 115 million hands dealt on their site.
AA had an expected value of 2.32 BB.
The chart was pretty accurate too. Only problems I saw was that suited cards seem to play much better online than live.
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Senator 7
"I've got a fever and the only prescription is more cowbell." - Legendary music producer, Bruce Dickinson
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Senator7
Not too long ago, one of the larger (Absolute or Pacific?) poker sites did an expected value analysis of 115 million hands dealt on their site.
AA had an expected value of 2.32 BB.
The chart was pretty accurate too. Only problems I saw was that suited cards seem to play much better online than live.
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This doesnt tell us much at all seeing as the vast majority of online players are losing players, so their results are going to be greatly skewed.
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Warpe
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01-23-2007, 04:01 AM
Post subject: Re: AA winrate
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#12 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Out of the last 85 times I've been dealt AA, I've 'won without showing' 39 times, or nearly half the time.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I've won without showing 46 of the past 99 times I've gotten AA.
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This is what I'm starting to wonder about...
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zook
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01-23-2007, 04:59 AM
Post subject: Re: AA winrate
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#13 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Out of the last 85 times I've been dealt AA, I've 'won without showing' 39 times, or nearly half the time.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I've won without showing 46 of the past 99 times I've gotten AA.
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This is what I'm starting to wonder about... |
Gonna start limping it? 
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Seasider
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01-23-2007, 12:44 PM
Post subject: Re: AA winrate
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#14 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Bangor UK
Posts: 563
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Out of the last 85 times I've been dealt AA, I've 'won without showing' 39 times, or nearly half the time.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I've won without showing 46 of the past 99 times I've gotten AA.
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This is what I'm starting to wonder about... |
Is it not because you take down the blinds a lot of the time and the other times you generally win or lose huge?
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DubRod
AA 116 times 91.38win%, 6.77bb/100, 74 times won without showdown.
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I'm so jealous.. my AA only has a 70% winrate and I do play it fast..
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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Chopper
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01-23-2007, 12:58 PM
Post subject: Re: AA winrate
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#16 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I've won without showing 46 of the past 99 times I've gotten AA. My winrate is 2.95BB/100, second only to KK at 4.45BB/100
edit: these are BB/hand, not /100 |
my sample (in my newer db) is too small to comment with stats, but all seems about right. i guess i am due to have my AA cracked in the recent future...lol.
isnt the reason that your KK is doing better, that its easier to fold when the A hits the flop? therefore, you dont tend to take it as far as AA? at least, that seems to be the case with me. my KK (over larger numbers in another db) was my biggest winner...BY FAR!
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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dont have my exact stats because im at work, but mine are on par with warpe's. my AA is only getting like 2.5bb/hand and winning without a showdown over ~60% of the time. My KK is doing much better at 5ishbb/hand.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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Warpe
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01-23-2007, 02:08 PM
Post subject: Re: AA winrate
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#18 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Out of the last 85 times I've been dealt AA, I've 'won without showing' 39 times, or nearly half the time.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I've won without showing 46 of the past 99 times I've gotten AA.
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This is what I'm starting to wonder about... |
Gonna start limping it? |
Not limping (never limping), but I'm certainly beginning to think about flat calling raises some of the time and trying to make my reraising range a little wider.
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djzcko
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 285
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83x AA, won without showing = 38x, PTBB/hand = 3.77.
111x KK, won without showing = 54x, PTBB/hand = 3.55.
$100nl FR and 6 max if that makes any difference.
edit: won without showing = everyone folded pf
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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5-7 is more standard warpe, its very likely u are making weakish folds.
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
5-7 is more standard warpe, its very likely u are making weakish folds.
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5/7? I can't remember the last time I folded AA.
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zook
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01-23-2007, 04:09 PM
Post subject: Re: AA winrate
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#22 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Not limping (never limping), but I'm certainly beginning to think about flat calling raises some of the time and trying to make my reraising range a little wider.
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One thing I've been playing around with is re-raising light once or twice in the first few orbits at a new table. Not against players I have history with though. Don't know if it's helping to get my premiums paid off, but it's fun and good for my image.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
5-7 is more standard warpe, its very likely u are making weakish folds.
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5/7? I can't remember the last time I folded AA. |
QFMFT. It's likely that 100 hands is a miniscule sample size and we've taken some freakishly bad beats. I'm tempted to post some, but then I'd have to punch myself in the face.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
5-7 is more standard warpe, its very likely u are making weakish folds.
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5/7? I can't remember the last time I folded AA. |
Yea even when i ran (played) god awfully during December at 100nl 6m my aces still made a shit-ton.
I said weakish folds because for some reason at the time I thought you were playing full ring.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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90% winrate
3.3bbs per time dealt.
win without showing down about 30-40% the time
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
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85.5% winrate at 5.85PTBB/hand. Went to showdown (when seeing flop) only 47% of the time - guess I play my aces too fast.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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you know if we posted the numbers of hands in our samples sizes along with our stats, we could get a better "cross-section" of how AA/KK play.
we could leverage all of our sample sizes to arrive at a medium number from which we could actually start any analysis.
only have 6700 hands to draw from (new db, remember) myself but...
AA (20 times) 95% win 6.75 BB/hand 12 times "w/o showing" have not folded, yet.
KK (30 times) 70% win 2.93 BB/hand 14 times "w/o showing" and folded 8 times. once on flop (A hit).
is this something we can do?
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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last time I had AA, I was in the BB and it was folded to me!
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
last time I had AA, I was in the BB and it was folded to me!
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nothing pisses me off more!! "c'mon guys (fishies) get in here and gambool!"
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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