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AA on wet flop

  
 
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deucesomething
Old 03-18-2010, 09:54 AM     Post subject: AA on wet flop #1 (permalink)  
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No reads on this guy yet. Easy fold here?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($11.68)
CO ($18.80)
Hero (Button) ($10.24)
SB ($13.82)
BB ($6.22)
UTG ($11.17)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
UTG bets $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95) 8, J, 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.95) K (2 players)
UTG bets $4.95, Hero ???

Total pot: $4.95 | Rake: $0.33
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meeloche
Old 03-18-2010, 05:56 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Please post hands below 50nl in the Beginners circle.

{moved from shnl}



 
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jaytoi
Old 03-18-2010, 09:26 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Considering his PF 3b flatting range would be pretty strong as an unknown for now, it's probably in the bounds of like [TT+, AQ+]. I stoved it last night and on the turn we have 42 % equity against that range and need 50 to call the PSB. So completely without reads it looks like a fold. He's showing up with sets/ 2pair often and not much with a club/diamond draw that doesn't already have a straight (QJ is pretty much the only combo FD that MIGHT get here and be worse than your aces). You should also consider your As are blocking both NFDs so we can pretty much exclude those from villians range. It's mostly hands that just got there it seems

Later on when you know he's a drooler who floats flop and whacks pot button on turn when his AK hits, you might be able to call down profitably after the turn. But for now , against an unknown theres a thin range you beat, so it's a fold.
Im ready this time.
 
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rpm
Old 03-18-2010, 11:36 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 you need 33% to call a PSB and breakeven. to need 50% equity there would have to be nothing in the pot at all (obviously impossible in holdem) when you are facing a bet
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jaytoi
Old 03-19-2010, 03:44 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Shit good point, didn't think about that- looks like you do have equity against his preflop range then? That being said, I dont think QQ or AK would usually take this line, so it still could be a fold to feel semi-good about.

Is there any situation we come across regularly when we need 50 percent equity? Or does an opponent have to overbet the pot for us to warrant a fold when we're behind slightly, like now?

omg i think i just had an AH I SEE moment lol. calling a PSB can be profitable even when behind because the behindness is not always by a large margin, and we win whats in the pot initially as well.

I dont know wtf i didn't realise that before lol

FWIW, if you dont have the appropriate reads on opp to put QQ and AK's in his range, this is how bleak you're looking:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
792 games 0.005 secs 158,400 games/sec
Board: Jd Kc 8c Td
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 88.889% 84.60% 04.29% 670 34.00 { KK+, JJ-TT, AQs, AQo }
Hand 1: 11.111% 06.82% 04.29% 54 34.00 { AcAd }

You need to know that he would take this line with QQ and AK to make a call profitable here.
Im ready this time.
 
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spoonitnow
Old 03-19-2010, 03:53 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rpm View Post
you need 33% to call a PSB and breakeven.
Only if it closes the action on the hand
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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knaplek
Old 03-19-2010, 09:16 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
Only if it closes the action on the hand
This is way more important than most people realise. There are frequently times when you have more than 50% equity against your opponent's betting range yet it is correct to fold flop.
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JKDS
Old 03-19-2010, 03:17 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knaplek View Post
This is way more important than most people realise. There are frequently times when you have more than 50% equity against your opponent's betting range yet it is correct to fold flop.
huh?
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Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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knaplek
Old 03-19-2010, 03:21 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
huh?
If your opponent's range is really polarised compared to yours and he's good enough to barrel with an optimum frequency then you can't profitably call him down over multiple streets of betting.

I wrote a detailed post about this last year:

Theoretical ramblings

#2 is the relevant one here, although you may need to refer back to #1 if you don't get what I'm talking about.
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JKDS
Old 03-19-2010, 06:59 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 Aight, i gotchu. I was concerned over exactly how frequent we'd be advocating to fold with 50% equity, but after some thought i realized that this kind of occurrence is actually fairly common when our hand is extremely marginal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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