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Jager
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10-05-2006, 04:30 AM
Post subject: AA v KK
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 754
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In the last 15,000 hands I have had My KK run into AA 9 times.
I have been dealt KK 85 times that is more than 10% of the time.
Can someone give me a the % of hands that this is gonna happen?
Its really getting annoying.
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bigslikk
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 445
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on 2+2 forum I saw someone venture out that it's 4.4% that some1 has AA when you have KK at a 10-handed table.
they wrote:
When you have KK heads up, there is a 6/1225 chance the other player has AA (6 ways to make AA, 50*49/2=1225 possible starting hands left after you get KK). 10-handed, a good approximation of the math, although technically incorrect, is that 9*6/1225 = 54/1225 or 4.4% chance someone else has AA.
u gettin screwed i guess 
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Jager
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 754
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Thats what I was lookin for.
Thanks
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"It is impossible for you to learn what you think you already know."
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djzcko
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 285
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Actually, there are 1326 possible hands, not 1225. I've done the math myself and have seen 1326 posted in other places so I beleive that to be the correct number. So, the odds are actually smaller than what was posted...it's 4.06%. Basically 1 in 25x in full ring (10 players), your KK should run into AA. So, 10% is ridiculous...you have very bad luck.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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in xxxk hands i have only seen AA vAA twice.
Im not paying out on the first person to guess which site these happened on.
Also, i rarely if ever run into KK vs AA all in preflop for 100bbs except on the same site, even when im running truly bloody bad. 
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Jager
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 754
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Well I don't normally go AI preflop with KK unless I am playing a shortstack. However it gets expensive when I value bet post flop 3 times, eat 2/3 of my stack, and the passive shows AA.
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"It is impossible for you to learn what you think you already know."
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sejje
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 883
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Jager, one time I had that scenario six times in one night when I had recently moved up, propelling me back down a limit. If anyone can top that, then please, do some whining.
Also that same night I had I believe three set under set scenarios. Not a good night.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
in xxxk hands i have only seen AA vAA twice.
Im not paying out on the first person to guess which site these happened on.
Also, i rarely if ever run into KK vs AA all in preflop for 100bbs except on the same site, even when im running truly bloody bad. |
Are you a conspiracy theorist? Are you really saying that a site is rigged, and you play there anyway? I thought we had cast out most of those sentiments on this board. I'm sort of ashamed now.
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Nova442
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 43
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Just variance.
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"Cry Havoc and let slip the dogs of War."
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sejje
Jager, one time I had that scenario six times in one night when I had recently moved up, propelling me back down a limit. If anyone can top that, then please, do some whining.
Also that same night I had I believe three set under set scenarios. Not a good night.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
in xxxk hands i have only seen AA vAA twice.
Im not paying out on the first person to guess which site these happened on.
Also, i rarely if ever run into KK vs AA all in preflop for 100bbs except on the same site, even when im running truly bloody bad. |
Are you a conspiracy theorist? Are you really saying that a site is rigged, and you play there anyway? I thought we had cast out most of those sentiments on this board. I'm sort of ashamed now. |
Meh, i was being only semi serious. Saying that, in 65k hands i havent managed to get all in preflop KK vs AA on party, but pretty much had to fold twice in 5k hands at stars yesterday with it.
Maybe its variance or something mad over 200k+ hands but i dont have anywhere near the amount of AA vs KK hands i should, but then saying that id rather muck KK to a 3bet/push over a three bet for 20-40bbs at a few sites than stack off with KK for sure so maybe its becuase i wont commit 100bbs deep with KK preflop.
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flyingPenguin
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 193
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It's not necessarily just variance. If you're opponents think your reraising range is really tight, they're much more likely to be able to put you on KK, hence much more likely to try to stack you with AA only.
Not sure if this is the case for you, but worth a thought.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by flyingPenguin
It's not necessarily just variance. If you're opponents think your reraising range is really tight, they're much more likely to be able to put you on KK, hence much more likely to try to stack you with AA only.
Not sure if this is the case for you, but worth a thought.
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if anything i reraise light which is why people dont 3bet me often with AA they call. And too often get wtf pwned as i only stack off when i can beat a one pair hand in these situations.
But cetainly i agree on the point you make.
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