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| kmind |
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Villain is semi-unknown but seems very fish so far running 27/0 after about 19 hands. I noticed that he wasn't a maniac postflop but wasn't too passive either. With those reads I usually go into the "Oh he can easily raise with an overpair/A9 here then" but I don't know. In hindsight I do not like my flop bet size. I was hoping to just get a flat call and in my head at the time was "please don't raise". If I bet more on the flop and he raises is it more of a b/f? Enlighten me, BC. No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com MP ($36.35) CO ($30.91) Button ($26.30) SB ($25.10) Hero (BB) ($25.35) UTG ($51.19) Preflop: Hero is BB with A  , A UTG bets $0.50, 2 folds, Button calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises $1.75, 1 fold, Button calls $1.50 Flop: ($4.60) 9  , 6 , 5 (2 players)Hero bets $3, Button raises $8.25 |
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| bhaley66 |
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I suck, so take this w/a grain of salt. I think that UTG is only raising/calling preflop w/TT+, AQ+, or KQs. That being said, I think his raise on the flop brings his range down to JJ+, so call imo. |
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| StarGrinder |
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| Shouldn't we raise more pre vs a raise + a caller + being OOP? Bet more on the flop imo but he's got a lot of draws in combination with nut hands of 99,55,66,78. I hate a call and folding seems exploitable, although he's a retard so lol table image. Fold or 3-bet AI. I guess it comes down to whether you think he plays his draws aggressively or not. | ||
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| kmind |
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bhaley - villain is BU not UTG which changes significantly. But what you said I agree with if we were facing UTG and I'd def. somehow try to get it in. StarGrinder - I raised to $2 which is most likely my standard. I should probably raise more and would have if I had reads but $2 is sort of my general raise size vs. unknowns. I've had an insane amount of folds when I raise to a higher sizing (we should bluff more then I know). |
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| bhaley66 |
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| Oops, yes it does significantly... now facing the buttons re-raise, I think that his range easily would include 99, or even 78s... so, I'm not real sure here | ||
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| thelorax |
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since villain seems fishy, I kinda doubt hes raising this flop with a draw. your holding blockers to a9. This is a set way too often imo. I think I fold and get him later. do you have a fold to 3b on him? EDIT: just saw you only have 19 hands on him so the 3b stat wouldnt really be significant. I guess its comes down to what you think hes flatting your 3b pre with..prob not kk, maybe ak, qq-99? I realize were in prettty good shape against this range.. but you have to be pretty sure hes raising the flop with overpairs (like jj-tt and some qq) to get it in here. |
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| kmind |
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| I really don't imagine him having KK or probably QQ here as it seems like he'd raise preflop at SOME point but it's definitely possible. | ||
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| Outlaw |
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At face value it looks like a tough spot, but if you look at it closely its probably a fold unless you have some read. If the money went in here we wouldn't be good that often. We are drawing basically dead to a ton of stuff that calls your shove.. 3 sets, a straight, two-pair. Even if he has some crap like 98 he is getting the right price to call even if he knows we have AA.. The only thing we beat is a FD which has an ass ton of equity. |
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| kmind |
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Outlaw - I'm not sure I understand the first paragraph. I don't think they're only doing this for "set odds" plus he's not going to have much implied odds against me. Can you explain a tad more please? 2nd and 3rd paragraph = my thoughts at the table |
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| Outlaw |
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Maybe not only doing it for that reason and he likely he doesn't even know its "benefit" of doing it. But you are laying 13-1 to hit a set in a multi way pot which a lot of players will consider calling just to try and win a monster... especially if they think you have AA/KK. Level one thinkers tend to think reraisers always have aces. And remember, at 25NL.. tons of players will call your reraise out of spite and/or because they simply like their hand. And if they will call 1.75.. they will likely call $2.00 or $2.25. |
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| kmind |
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| Yeah true I can agree with that. It's funny, during the hand I was like "OK make it to $2.25 or $2.50...wait nope they almost always fold so just make it to $2.00" so I definitely agree just selective memory forcing me to bet smaller imo. | ||
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| kfaess |
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I don't know if I can fold this without better reads than what you've given Code:
Board: 9s 6h 5h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.925% 47.32% 00.61% 16396 210.00 { QQ-99, 66-55, Ah9h, 87s, 65s }
Hand 1: 52.075% 51.47% 00.61% 17834 210.00 { AcAd }
The range I gave him doesn't take into account any random spaz bluffs (which I think is less likely based on sizing), it only gives him one FD, and it doesn't have any random 9's like J9s where he's 'raising to see where he's at'. I've seen ppl show up here with like K9s and stack off.. I think this is a shove I dunno I think the flop bet size is fine and could even be a little bigger. I think if this guy has any type of draw he's going to want to see another card and there isn't much of a difference between 2.50 or 3.5 in his eyes. Plus, I want to get max value if he has an overpair because he's calling at least one bet when that is the case. I agree that the raise PF should be bigger. I like a size around 2.50ish. What is pot like 2.25? You're basically making a squeeze so ya bigger I think but I'd still like to hear what other ppl have to say about this. |
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| paratrooper99 |
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| As villian button, I call with 3-1 preflop with any pp 22-QQ, large amount of suited connectors and gappers. You are likely facing a set, and possibly facing a aggressive player with a really good FD/SD combo. You are likely crushed and should fold. | ||
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| kidsoldja |
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| Almost in all my experiences in situations like this, the guy has hit as set, depending on how well u know this player i would proceed with caution, you did say villain is fishy, so maybe put him on range of JJ,AK,KK,QQ. | ||
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| Donachello |
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Meh spot. 3bet preflop should be more like 2.10. Have you seen him show down any hands yet? After only 19 hands this spot really sucks since you have no idea whether he plays draws aggro. He hasn't raised yet so you can probably assume this a pair. I guess I probably fold since I don't really see him playing TT-KK this way. Your flop bet size is fine imo. You don't need to be potting 3bet pots on the flop unless the guy is a lol-station. I think anywhere from like 2.75-3.15 is fine on the flop. The only draws I think you ever see do this here would be like AKhh and A9hh but given the stats and preflop action his range is much more weighted towards sets. stove a range that includes sets, those two heart draws and maybe JJ,QQ. |
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[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven [00:30] <DC> on my hand? [00:30] <daven> yep [00:30] <DC> because I am drunk [00:30] <daven> nice reason [00:30] <daven> no further questions [00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol Problem officer...?
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| OngBonga |
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I assume if you have 19 hands on him then ditto he has 19 hands on you. Has he seen you fold to a 3bet after cbetting a flop in this time? Your table image over these 19 hands is important for me, because if you've made two squeezes say in this time and cbet every time you raise, he might just think you're an aggro maniac and be value betting his jacks against whatever junk you have. At 2nl I shove this spot every time because it's A9 K9 98s 97s T9s TT JJ QQ 77 88 and sometimes even KK/AA enough times to be making a ton of money, but I don't know about this level. For sure we need more info, but we haven't got it, so I probably shove and make notes when he shows. If we've been tight for the last 19 hands, then this is very probably a fold. I'm only shoving this spot if I can be reasonably confident there's plenty of hands we beat in his range that he can be raising this flop with, and if we've been tight for the last 19 hands, I can't see him doing this with JJ, but we don't know this until we showdown. |
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| Hoopy |
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Assuming his range for calling your shove is {JJ, 99, 66, 55, AhQh, Ah9h, 65s, 87s} we have 34% equity, I'm thinking it's too optimistic to put TT in his range and maybe even the 2 flush draws, he probably doesn't raise/fold here much. So I'd probably fold. |
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| Sasquach991 |
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The 3bet looks like a weak attempt to steal the pot pf. You said you raised to $2? Where? I would probably 3bet to $3 pf since I'm oop then cbet to ~$6 and shove a raise but then again I have a hard time folding AA esp against a CS. Seems like villian would take this line with TT-QQ, 9x, especially if he though your 3bet was weak. |
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"Just cause I'm from the South don't mean I ain't got no book learnin'"
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| NightGizmo |
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| JKDS |
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| OngBonga |
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I'm just being facetious here, aren't I? |
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| Imthenewfish |
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| shallam |
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*****PREFLOP. AcAd. One min-raise. one caller. It's never wrong to go all in all with Aces. You will occassionally get called and be a huge favorite (but still lose!). You will suck in KK and maybe in even QQ, and be a huge favorite in a monster pot which will make your poker session. Even if everyone folds, two good things happen. First you win the pot, a tax (rake) free pot (100% equity Yay!). Secondly, you avoid any chance of putting your money in bad, and we all know as great as AA is -- the flip side is that it is emotionally very hard to let go off. For some reason we think that if we have AA world owes us a big pot. BS!! Every poker player has stacked off with AA postflop drawing stone dead or nearly dead against two pair, a set, a straight, or a flush. Don't lie, you know you have. Still..... most of the time you will want to play somewhat deceptively and attempt to extract extra value from your powerhouse hand. AA is such a strong hand you can afford to play in a variety of ways. You hope to be up against something like top pair and win a very nice pot with a series of solid value bets. Extremes aside, the standard preflop play is to ReRaise 1.5-2 times the size of the pot. Which means that your ReR is *VERY* light. That's ok if your plan is to be deceptive and quasi slow play. Be aware that you are often giving your opps the right odds to hit a big hand. AND your AA will be hard to let go of. Think about letting go in advance. You make a smallish ReR of 7 BB, on a ~5bb pot, giving our opps around 2-1, or better to call. That's ok if you are intentionally playing decptively and underrepresenting your hand. You will usually win, but losses can sometimes be very large and you will wonder why you allowed your opps to outdraw you. One fold, one caller, good already we have some dead money. I love dead money, it gives us a math overlay for our hand. ***FLOP. 9s, 6h, 5h. Right away we see that our opponent would need to be playing either trashy SCs or a small pair to hit this flop. While the board is coordinated it does not connect well with a tightish medium to big pair, or Ace Strong hand. We are confident that we have the best hand on this flop. You make a very standard size bet on the flop, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. The button makes a sizable ReR. Yuck! Gross !! Now *we* are under pressure. So now, for the first time, we have think about the possibility that we are beat. Time for a quick version of a hand range analysis (good idea to poker stove it too as a follow up). Hands we beat: --Single pair: anything from a pocket pair like 88 up to KK or something like to 45s or 98s. Quite a range. Overpair and aggressive play fits the bettting so far. --Simple Draws: Our opp could have either a flush draw, a straight draw including a gutshot. -- Complex Combos: There are many. Pair, flush, straight draw combos are numerous. He could easily have a hand like 9h8h, giving him top pair, a flush draw, a gutshhot and five outs to two pair or better. His aggression makes this more likely than a simple draw. Agree ? --Air: He could have complete air and be on a steal. Maybe he just watched Tom Dwan on TV. Air bluff is never less than 5%. Hands that beat you. ---Set. The sickest and most nightmarish of hands to be up against. Unlikely but always possible, and likely to milk you for a big score if you have trouble letting go. A set nicely fits the betting of the hand so far. --- Two pair. Even more unlikely, 65s would really have to thread the needle. I would almost entirely discount this hand. So overall, noting the very wide range of hands, most likely we have the best hand. We absolutely hate the ReR. I see three options. 1. Fold. Too early IMHO, only somewhat unreasonable. 2. Call. He probably has hand, likely a draw. Let's see what happens. We are acutely aware that we may need make decision that endangers our entire stack. 3. Raise. We likely have the best hand and therefore should raise. The next question is what size and what are implications ? It turns out we don't have much flexibility. a. Smallish raise. He raised about 1/3 of his stack. Not much room for us here. If we smallish ReR, it's pretty much all or none for him. Any ReR from us makes him pot committed if he wants to continue which means any raise from us really means... b. All in raise. His raise was right in between, aggressive but not yet pot committed.... he could fold. But if you raise and he wants to continue you are almost certain to be playing for the rest of your stacks. Both stacks still have meat and you'll be completely busted since he has you covered. Gross. So, as I see it you have a choice of all in or call. I hate both options. I'm moderately inclined toward going all in. Most likely your hand is best. We could be up against KK, QQ, JJ and make a huge score. We could also be up against 99 and be drawing nearly dead. We could also be up against a wide variety of draws, including combo draws, some of which we are about even money (like 9h8h). Looks like we are in stuck in a high variance gamble. But I hate it. I hope he fold or calls with the worst of it. Did I mention I hate my hand now ? |
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| kmind |
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| Wow -- really long detailed post, thank you! | ||
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| NightGizmo |
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If my understanding of "raises" is wrong, please correct me. Otherwise, it's a bug in the converter. kmind -- can you post your original HH (what you pasted into the converter) in the thread I linked earlier, so they can fix the bug? Feel free to obfuscate your player name first if you don't want that published. |
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| OngBonga |
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| Obfuscate... is that a real word or did you just make that up? | ||
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| kmind |
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| Sure NightGizmo. I'm away right now on my laptop but will post sometime later tonight /tomorrow when I can. | ||
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| surviva316 |
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2.50 pre. shove flop. kfaess gave the tightest friggin range possible (though he could have 96s and 95s here too), and we still have ~50% equity. i think he shows up with a ton of random junk/good draws due to fishes' propensity to spazz out on 9-high boards. if this were FR and we had the Ah with the same reads on villain, i could see folding |
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| KoRnholio |
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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| According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... | |
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