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dranger7070
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03-17-2009, 11:58 PM
Post subject: AA at 5nl vs feesh
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
Posts: 2,524
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Villain is 91/4/1.1 over 25 hands. This is obv a small sample, but what does he flat flop that he leads on turn with that I beat? It just really confuses me. Because of his AF it makes me think he has 2 pair, set, etc. His PF stats are ridiculous, but idk...
http://weaktight.com/898502
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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I fold. It's just too deep. Our odds are like 1.25:1 and I think we're beat way too often here.
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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kfaess
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 556
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yea I agree unless you have some other very good reads that he is spazzy etc.., and I doubt you did after only 25 hands, then I think its correct to fold (not saying I could though).
Looks like a 2-pair or set to me.
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KeeKoLy
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 78
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He could have pocket 5's if he's that loose. It would be a horrible play and 2pr is more likely, but you never know. Either way I think it's a fold.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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I'm pretty sure I press the call button pretty hard here, small sample but 91//4 lol. I cant find fold button! I'd be like 'wat', call. make notes if I lose, make notes if I win.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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I'd raise daisey my last 3 cents
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
Posts: 2,524
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Ok, you guys say ship the last 3 cents, and I agree that 91/4 is pretty outrageous, but seriously, his AF is only 1.1. He's never just flats flop/ships turn with air, or even just top pair. This guy could have 55, 77, JJ, TT, T8, 62o its just way too weird of a line for him to take, and I didn't want to blow a 100bb stack just because I couldn't find the fold butting because "OMG I HAZ AA AND ITS ONLY 5NL!!!" Idk, it could have been a really weak fold, but I think I'm behind there.
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ArcadianRock
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 295
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Yeah, I think this is a set situation. That was my first impression and just because he limps nearly 100% of his hands doesn't mean he will bet hard. If his AF was 3+ then I would definitely consider the shove here. But as Dranger said it's just too deep and a shove there only shows strength, it shows someone who has a pokasm when they hit a HUGE hand.
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clvacva
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 200
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but dont feesh also just do this with Air and Top Pair
I like what muzzard said about making a note of what
hand is this fish overbet shoving the turn with.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dranger7070
Ok, you guys say ship the last 3 cents, and I agree that 91/4 is pretty outrageous, but seriously, his AF is only 1.1. He's never just flats flop/ships turn with air, or even just top pair. This guy could have 55, 77, JJ, TT, T8, 62o its just way too weird of a line for him to take, and I didn't want to blow a 100bb stack just because I couldn't find the fold butting because "OMG I HAZ AA AND ITS ONLY 5NL!!!" Idk, it could have been a really weak fold, but I think I'm behind there.
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Then why make this thread?
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Well, here's the thing, it's a read based situation. So what spenda said.
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
Posts: 2,524
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Gah, see now I feel like an ass lol. Sorry 
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I recently snap called a shove from a monkey who's been shoving as a bluff with TPGK and he showed two undercards with no draw
that's why it's read based
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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One question, what was your preflop plan vs him?
It should have been get it all in no matter what..
He is giving you that chance, take it.
And remember 1.1AF for a guy running 90VPIP is a lot higher than it looks.. I don't know the math but it's probably comparable to 3.0 AF for a guy running 20/12. (feel free to correct me on this)
I would check his flop/turn AF for a better indicator.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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you can fold here
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
Posts: 2,524
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Yea outlaw you're completely right about the AF thing. I knew that, but I think I just forgot about it at the table, and idk his line was so fucked that I got scurred I think lol.
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speedcake
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tampa
Posts: 434
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got any notes/reads on him other than his stats?
I think I cry and call.
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your banner burned here
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Basically, without reads/stats other than this guy is a complete fish, I'm paying him off here. I have seen some of the most random and retarded shit get shown here. Obviously, if he plays a set this badly then I suppose he can have my money, especially when I'm damn near the top of my range. That's because on average if he does make this play with a set, I won't be paying off when I have a lot of weaker hands, that I'm gonna have more often here.
Also, we only need 44% equity to have a BE call here. If we put him on a relatively tight range (basically the top of his range) {77,TT,JJ,KQ,AhKh,JT}, then we have a call with 47% equity. If he has more flush draws/straight draws than this, then our equity increases and a call becomes more apparent. And I don't think that we can put some retarded bluffs or shoves with worse out of the question against him.
Also dranger, I know you posted saying he likely never does this with <top pair; however, you only have 25 hands on him. I'm wondering if this is an assumption you are making based on his AF, or if you have some other relevant information, such as another hand he played in the same manner, etc?
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
Posts: 2,524
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I guess I never did the pot odds/equity calc on it, so now I feel REALLY foolish for posting the hand.
As for your question, I guess its more that I had a feeling that he wouldn't be doing it (mostly because I wouldn't do it) I guess thats pretty asinine of me to assume that with his stats. I really didn't even think about the fact that with his AF being 1.1 but his stats being so loose that it actually means he is betting/raising a lot. Usually that is something I take into account. All I seen was the ship, and thats retarded.
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dranger7070
I guess I never did the pot odds/equity calc on it, so now I feel REALLY foolish for posting the hand.
As for your question, I guess its more that I had a feeling that he wouldn't be doing it (mostly because I wouldn't do it) I guess thats pretty asinine of me to assume that with his stats. I really didn't even think about the fact that with his AF being 1.1 but his stats being so loose that it actually means he is betting/raising a lot. Usually that is something I take into account. All I seen was the ship, and thats retarded. |
Don't feel foolish about posting anything, man.. that's what this board is for.. there are no dumb questions.. except mine of course lol
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Sometimes fish help us by telling us what they have.
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Just playing to improve.
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flomo
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: mashing potatoes
Posts: 878
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get the money in
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
Protect dog
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kleitches
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 11
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Outlaw
One question, what was your preflop plan vs him?
It should have been get it all in no matter what..
He is giving you that chance, take it.
And remember 1.1AF for a guy running 90VPIP is a lot higher than it looks.. I don't know the math but it's probably comparable to 3.0 AF for a guy running 20/12. (feel free to correct me on this)
I would check his flop/turn AF for a better indicator.
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AF is a stat that is a bit skewed because it fails to take checking into account. The formula for how AF is calculated is (bets+raises)/calls.
Taking this into account, a person that check/folds will actually have a (correctly) high AF stat. That is, because the checking and folding is not included in the calculation. If one were to want to raise their AF, all they would have to do is actually start folding in places where they normally would call.
This being said, let's consider the villian in this hand, who is running 91/4/1.1. Like Outlaw mentioned, his aggression is a lot higher than it looks. But why? The answer lies in two things mainly. a) His vpip indicates that he obviously has a super wide range (ATC let's just say) and b) his fold to c-bet. If he's playing 90% of flops and has an AF of 1.1, he's betting or raising just as much as he's calling. If this guy rarely check/folds, then he's playing his weak range aggressively as much as he is calling with it. This is where fold to C-bet comes into play. Generally opponents (especially at these lower limits) are one of two things:
1) Players with high Fold to C-bet, they are playing for TPTK or better and fold if they don't hit.
2) Players with low Fold to C-bet, they are playing for anything and calling with draws or even something stupid like bottom pair.
The higher this stat is, the more cautiously I play if I'm past the flop and they're still sticking around.
Basically in this situation villian is a bit more aggro than he looks, but I still probably fold to the turn shove considering I don't see why he would have the balls to shove without something better than freak two pair. Again, depends on what reads you have on him.
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