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martindcx1e
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05-02-2006, 05:29 AM
Post subject: AA = 1/2 my profit. Is this normal?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Looking through my first ~10,000 hands I realized that AA makes up almost exactly 1/2 of my total profit. Is this normal or just a good run w/ AA? They have won 98% of the time so far out of 55 times. Just curious.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Yes
Rember to laugh really hard the next time someone at the cardroom talks about where their profit comes from. It's their mind fucking with them.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Yes
Rember to laugh really hard the next time someone at the cardroom talks about where their profit comes from. It's their mind fucking with them.
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Noted
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parky
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Two Pair
Join Date: May 2006
Location: milwaukee
Posts: 40
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I read a post somewhere else and most the of profit from this guy was on Aces also, in fact I think he was profitable only on about the top ten hands and he played a similar number of games as you.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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it may show up as half your profit, but in reality its about 1/4. Remember that the PT hand profitability chart also includes hands that LOSE money.
It reminds me of the chart in Small Stakes Hold'em. They graphed a pro players breakdown of bb/hand for LHE. AA and KK were huge spikes on the graph and all the other hands were relatively unprofitable.
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Lukie
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05-02-2006, 02:51 PM
Post subject: Re: AA = 1/2 my profit. Is this normal?
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#6 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Looking through my first ~10,000 hands I realized that AA makes up almost exactly 1/2 of my total profit. Is this normal or just a good run w/ AA? They have won 98% of the time so far out of 55 times. Just curious.
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AA is always going to represent a huge chunk of your profits, but you've only had the hand 55 times, and you won 98% of those. I understand this equals > 10,000 hands, but 55 occurances of a given hand just isn't enough to judge how much of your profit will come from it in the long run. It may be more, may be less. Depends a lot on your style and your opponents. For example, if you generally play in very weak/tight/passive games, your profit with AA will be lower then in a high stakes, shorthanded game where there's tons of raising, reraising, squeezing, etc.
Also, you may find some good info here:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...t=profit+comes
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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That's probably why multitabling is so good. More hands = more aces  . I don't think my aces are such winners like yours though. Got em twice today, and one got cracked. Q5 guy stuck to his Q on a K-high flop and hit a 5 on the river. Meh.
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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crushednuts
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 106
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My favorite is when people say they have a "favorite" hand other than AA or think that JTs owns
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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yeah, my most profitable hands (in terms of BB/hand) are AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK. In order.
So my favorite hands are those, in order.
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ProZachNation
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Over there!
Posts: 801
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I have had a horrible donwswing my last 500 hands, got AA 3 times and only won the blinds each time, havent made more than the blinds from flopping a set. Its rough when your AA doesnt get paid off for awhile.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
I didn't think its Bold to bang some chick with my bro. but i guess so... thats +EV in my book.
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pepsiholic
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 5
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crushednuts
My favorite is when people say they have a "favorite" hand other than AA or think that JTs owns
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all my friends think JTs has mystical powers
"it always wins!!!!"
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NLHE lahooozaher
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 916
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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...c.php?p=242232
Read that thread.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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I suppose it depends how you define profit. I look at profit as the difference in the return that the average player would expect to the value I expect.
e.g. If I manage to fold QQ to AA in a situation where the same guy would not have folded when the tables were turned then that is profit even though I lose money on that particlular hand. The situation is profitable because I expect to take his stack when the cards are reversed.
Since most people can make alot of money with AA then by my definition it might not be one of my most profitable hands even if it does make me the most money... Hangon that sounds like crazy talk. Ill stop now.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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saywhat2
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 113
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I love JTs. It makes the nuts St8 every time. And can be a very profitable hand in NL. I am not saying I dont like AA but it is not my fav.
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jameseyb
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Sapley, Cambs.
Posts: 169
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I don't like KK... The last couple of time's I've been dealt it, it's cost me a buyin when I've run head first into AA.
I'm now uber sceptical of playing it, which is probably the wrong way to think about such a good starting hand. I don't fold it, but I am just very wary of playing it as aggresively as I was.
J
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ProZachNation
I have had a horrible donwswing my last 500 hands, got AA 3 times and only won the blinds each time, havent made more than the blinds from flopping a set. Its rough when your AA doesnt get paid off for awhile.
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It can be worse. Last wednesday I got AA a whopping 5 times and it cost me in total 3 buy-ins. (one got all folds, 4 got cracked) KK and QQ got cracked too. That was a nightmarish day. Since then I've been using PT and now AA and KK, in that order, are my most profitable hands. Big difference.
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givememyleg
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WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: ISHPERMING MISHIGEN
Posts: 5,040
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My fav hand is 58o. Don't ask why; long story. I play it every time I am dealt it, no exceptions. I am a very superstitious person.
I also eat staples.
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TalentedTom
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Toronto
Posts: 289
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my top 5 are
AA, AK, AK, AQ, QQ
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Tom.S
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Chicago_Kid
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: People let me tell you about my best friends...
Posts: 1,132
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TalentedTom
my top 5 are
AA, AK, AK, AQ, QQ
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I just checked my 65k dB of full and 6max ring...it goes AA (55%), QQ (30%), KK (20%), AKo/AKs (20%), JJ (16%), 88, TT, 99...
Makes sense to me, since I've more than once pressed KK in denial with an A on the flop, and spewed chips. Also, I dont really like to get cute with AA or KK very often, like limp in with multiple players, etc. I'm looking to get AA or KK AI pre-flop as often as I can, so I'd rather r/r huge and try to get someone to catch me Bluffing
At lower levels (50, 100, 200 NL), people will call you with 99, TT, JJ, QQ, AK, AQ, AJ if you are aggressive...it's amazing how a quick push (instead of a re-raise) can get folks to follow you in when dominated.
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"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"
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Roco415
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 548
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by givememyleg
My fav hand is 58o. Don't ask why; long story. I play it every time I am dealt it, no exceptions. I am a very superstitious person.
I also eat staples.
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favorite flavor?
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Roco415.
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crushednuts
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 106
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I like the hammer! Its my mostest favoritest hand! derrrppp....
720 all the way!!! it makes the uber nuts so oftizzen
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renegaderob1
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 311
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Yes
Rember to laugh really hard the next time someone at the cardroom talks about where their profit comes from. It's their mind fucking with them.
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LoL!! Quoted for truth!
My PT takes a fucken long time to load these days i have that many hands in it; and i havnt even uploaded about 100k of hands from UB & Hollywook poker, but AA is definately the moneymaker...
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siknd
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 359
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Quote:
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I love JTs. It makes the nut St8 every time.
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um, except for 89QA with TJK river. also, nut straights dont beat nut flushes or nut full houses.
Quote:
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Looking through my first ~10,000 hands I realized that AA makes up almost exactly 1/2 of my total profit. Is this normal or just a good run w/ AA? They have won 98% of the time so far out of 55 times. Just curious.
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not to rain on this parade, but if your AA is winning that often, you are probably way overplaying it. AA is not a 98% favorite against any hand (let alone multi-way pots), therefore, you are probably losing a lot of value by not allowing ppl to take flops with you, and absolutely crushing their draws on the flop. its okay to get drawn out on...its really where the profit comes from...
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'If you think a weakness can be turned into a strength, I hate to tell you this, but that's another weakness. '
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Chicago_Kid
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: People let me tell you about my best friends...
Posts: 1,132
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by siknd
Quote:
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I love JTs. It makes the nut St8 every time.
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um, except for 89QA with TJK river. also, nut straights dont beat nut flushes or nut full houses.
Quote:
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Looking through my first ~10,000 hands I realized that AA makes up almost exactly 1/2 of my total profit. Is this normal or just a good run w/ AA? They have won 98% of the time so far out of 55 times. Just curious.
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not to rain on this parade, but if your AA is winning that often, you are probably way overplaying it. AA is not a 98% favorite against any hand (let alone multi-way pots), therefore, you are probably losing a lot of value by not allowing ppl to take flops with you, and absolutely crushing their draws on the flop. its okay to get drawn out on...its really where the profit comes from... |
On that note, I'm winning at 88% and I thought that might be high (see previous post about basically never getting cute with AA). Thoughts?
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"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by siknd
not to rain on this parade, but if your AA is winning that often, you are probably way overplaying it. AA is not a 98% favorite against any hand (let alone multi-way pots), therefore, you are probably losing a lot of value by not allowing ppl to take flops with you, and absolutely crushing their draws on the flop. its okay to get drawn out on...its really where the profit comes from...
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i raise pf every time between 4-8 BB's - it depends on how many limpers there are. i usually bet like 3/4 pot on the flop and continue that until i think i should slow down - is this a problem??
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siknd
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 359
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only losing once out of 55 tries is simply amazing, thats all. aggression is good, but it should be situational.
raising four or five limpers to 8x is pretty extreme, youre probably only going to get calls from pairs, so youre a big favorite going to the flop...
what do you do when you have AA in LP and theres a raise to you? all in?
what do you do when you flop a set with it, but there are two hearts on board?
3/4 pot sized bet on the flop is a nice amount... i dunno, maybe yu are just building up a huge amount of negative variance karma....
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'If you think a weakness can be turned into a strength, I hate to tell you this, but that's another weakness. '
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ihategnomes
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
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not to rain on this parade, but if your AA is winning that often, you are probably way overplaying it.
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Wouldn't it be the opposite? If you were overplaying AA wouldnt your winrate be lower? Since my move to NL I have been overplaying AA a great deal and only winning 70% of the time.
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Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by siknd
only losing once out of 55 tries is simply amazing, thats all. aggression is good, but it should be situational.
raising four or five limpers to 8x is pretty extreme, youre probably only going to get calls from pairs, so youre a big favorite going to the flop...
what do you do when you have AA in LP and theres a raise to you? all in?
what do you do when you flop a set with it, but there are two hearts on board?
3/4 pot sized bet on the flop is a nice amount... i dunno, maybe yu are just building up a huge amount of negative variance karma....
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if there's a raise in front i 3-bet to like 3x their raise. i also play AK and KK the same exact way. how do you play your AA when there are 4 or 5 limpers ahead of you?
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cardsman1992
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Being enjoyed at Jack's Bar since 1397
Posts: 1,065
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I like tripling their raise as well. However, there is a funny thing when you standard raise 4 or 5 limpers to maybe $2 or $2.25. They all start seeing dollar signs when all that money is going into the pot. Then they decide that they will tag along, so the field doesn't get thinned. Sometimes you will even see 2 or 3 all-ins from shorties after your raise. That always warms my heart....
That being said, I have trouble thinning the field here too. Sometimes I just bump it up to $2.50 or $3. Sometimes I get my isolation, but a lot of the time I get all the limped money in the pot, which is fine with me against a large field.
My AA is winning at 85% over 35K hands, btw...and by far my most profitable hand.
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EricE
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ihategnomes
Quote:
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not to rain on this parade, but if your AA is winning that often, you are probably way overplaying it.
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Wouldn't it be the opposite? If you were overplaying AA wouldnt your winrate be lower? Since my move to NL I have been overplaying AA a great deal and only winning 70% of the time. |
You could be winning more or less by overplaying it. It just depends upon your luck for those hands. In general, you will win less by overplaying it but it would take a lot of hands to see this. Summary: Variance.
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Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
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siknd
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 359
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
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Originally Posted by siknd
raising four or five limpers to 8x is pretty extreme, youre probably only going to get calls from pairs, so youre a big favorite going to the flop...
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if there's a raise in front i 3-bet to like 3x their raise. i also play AK and KK the same exact way. how do you play your AA when there are 4 or 5 limpers ahead of you? |
my open-raise range is 2.5-5xBB. regardless of the numbers of limpers, i would rarely raise more than 5x and heres why:
1. firstly, you have the nuts. dont force all the Ax's out there to make good folds.
2. more importantly, no one has shown strength. you are potentially wasting a big hand by simply winning the limped bets because you have shown them you obviously have a big hand.
3. by giving your strength away, you are very vulnerable. even an 8x raise will be called by most pocket pairs, so long as you are fully stacked. on a timeline long enough, someone will set you. they pretty much know that their pair is no good without improving (even if it is an overpair to the flop), so you are in a massive reverse-implied odds scenario. while you have created a greater than avg sized flop pot, it will not get any bigger unless you are beat by a set.
4. in the worst case scenario, i make only a standard raise into limpers and they ALL call. fine. the situation has changed, thats poker. i know my hand probably wont survive the flop, and i simply approach it with a different attitude, ie, prepared to come off the hand into action. now im trying to improve with a set, the nut flush etc.
5. remember that ace-ace is just one pair. like any hand, it wins and loses. dont play scared with it because that is a recipe for winning small pots and losing big ones.
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'If you think a weakness can be turned into a strength, I hate to tell you this, but that's another weakness. '
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