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88 vs big blind short stack min-reraise

  
 
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DoanDiggy
Old 12-03-2008, 03:18 PM     Post subject: 88 vs big blind short stack min-reraise #1 (permalink)  
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DoanDiggy
I got in a really strange spot today, and I think I might have gotten lucky to run into the bottom of my opponent's reraising+calling range.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($9.67)
UTG+1 ($9.93)
MP1 ($0.49)
MP2 ($5.52)
MP3 ($21.25)
CO ($5)
Hero (Button) ($13.72)
SB ($1.48)
BB ($3.18)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 8
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, MP2 calls $0.05, MP3 calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, 1 fold, BB raises to $0.65, 3 folds, Hero raises to $13.72 (All-In), BB calls $2.53 (All-In)

With no real reads on BB, I had no idea what he'd be reraising and then calling with. I figured to be against overs a lot, but I'm not sure if it's often enough to warrant taking my chances that he has AA-99. Do 77-44, ace-high, and king-high hands call here often enough to make this play profitable? Do Ax and Kx make this rereaise (I thought maybe, if my raise looks like a squeeze of some sort)? Does 99+ ever fold (probably not even 1% of the time)?

In retrospect, I feel like all I'm really doing is folding out a lot of worse pairs and running up against bigger ones, but a call just felt really weird, especially without set odds, and even if I had set odds, set mining against a short stack with 88 feels really weak. A fold has to be terrible since I'm putting $.30 into $1.30.

I guess I could just call and play my position, but pretty much the only play postflop is to call a shove, shove over any smaller bet, or put in like 30-40% of his stack if he checks to me. Hmm.... maybe a call would've been better, with the idea to felt most flops? At least that way, I have a better chance of folding out hands like 99-JJ if an A or K hits, or of getting better equity on an AK or 22-77 bluff-shove on an undercard board.

Any ideas?
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AFchung
Old 12-03-2008, 03:49 PM #2 (permalink)  
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with dead money in the pot, i think its okay to just stick the bb in. a lot of players who short stack are willing to stack off pretty light
 
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DoanDiggy
Old 12-03-2008, 03:51 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
with dead money in the pot, i think its okay to just stick the bb in. a lot of players who short stack are willing to stack off pretty light
Thanks, this is exactly what I was thinking at the time, but after I saw his AK and thought about it, I wasn't quite as sure. I'm used to playing tournaments, not cash games, so I'm trying to make sure that I'm making the right plays.
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AFchung
Old 12-03-2008, 04:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
with dead money in the pot, i think its okay to just stick the bb in. a lot of players who short stack are willing to stack off pretty light
Thanks, this is exactly what I was thinking at the time, but after I saw his AK and thought about it, I wasn't quite as sure. I'm used to playing tournaments, not cash games, so I'm trying to make sure that I'm making the right plays.
AK is a sided coinflip and you're actually a favorite

and even if he showed you AK somehow before pushing all in, it'd make the call even easier. if there was hypothetically $0.00 in the pot and he pushed, you would still call because you're a 5% favorite. now apply that to your situation, where there's already a lot of money in the pot. should be a snap call.

be glad he flipped over AK and not 99+
 
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DoanDiggy
Old 12-03-2008, 04:24 PM #5 (permalink)  
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DoanDiggy
I absolutely loved seeing AK. That's one of the hands I was hoping to see. But then I was thinking that it might be at the bottom of his min-reraising range, and that's when I started to question the play. Of course if I had could have seen his AK I would have shoved without thinking twice, but a minraise looks more like a pair than an A-high hand, doesn't it? Or maybe it's just a donk saying, "This hand is good, I'll raise it."

I just didn't know, so I was interested in hearing opinions. I appreciate yours .
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mieczkowusc
Old 12-03-2008, 04:41 PM #6 (permalink)  
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mieczkowusc
I rarely see short-stacks reraising pairs like 9s or Ts, more often its AK, AQ, KQs but let me think about this. (im kinda new to this so don't laugh)

Pairs that beat you: 9s, Ts, Js, Qs, Ks, As = 48 combos

Pairs that you beat: 7s, 6s = 12 combos.

Overcards: AK, AQ, AJs, KQs = 40 combos.

You are ahead 52 combos to 48 but I don't know if that range is accurate. Maybe someone more experienced could chime in.
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kettleofish
Old 12-03-2008, 05:03 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Meh tbh it's not a terrible shove against a tight(ish) calling range. You're riding the variance train taking this approach though. And he isn't that short ppl!

Miec i think your range might be accurate in regards to his raising range, but I can't see him calling off his stack with KQs. I'd say a more accurate calling range would be 55+, AQ+:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.281% 44.47% 00.81% 66249510 1205370.00 { 8c8d }
Hand 1: 54.719% 53.91% 00.81% 80310198 1205370.00 { 55+, AQs+, AQo+ }

So you're a slight dog, but if he's capable of folding to your shove with the bottom of his raising range the dead money probably makes it about break even. I'm not doing the math to work it out though
There's only one system. Bet. Lose. Borrow. Steal. Lose. Take the drugs. Lose. Prison. Death.
 
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