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surviva316
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04-17-2009, 05:13 AM
Post subject: 88 facing strange stats and stranger betting line
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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i've only played 26 hands against villain but he's running 19/0/5, so the limp call does not indicate set-hunting nearly as much as i usually infer (also 3bets 11%).
i'm never folding to min raise obviously, but is the turn a good bluffing opportunity?
Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($4.75)
BB ($6.83)
UTG ($28.70)
MP ($12.85)
Hero (Button) ($18.85)
Preflop: Hero is Button with  , 
BB calls $0.10, UTG calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.60, 3 folds, MP calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.50)  ,  ,  (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.80, MP raises to $1.60, Hero calls $0.80
Turn: ($4.70)  (2 players)
MP bets $1.70, Hero???
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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tyrn
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 189
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really? If you can't let go of 8's on this board you shouldn't play them. Cbet was good, but fold to his raise. So what if it is min. He either has a hand and isn't folding, or has a queen and thinks you're FOS and isn't folding. As played, fold turn.
Also I don't follow on your logic about villain not having a set of 4's or 6's because he limp called. Add to that his PFR is 0, I think the only way you can rule out a set of 4's or 6's is if he didn't limp.
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ArcadianRock
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 295
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Agreed, standard fold here. I can easily see two pair acting here. Even if you are ahead here, don't pick this battle to fight, there are better opportunities you can take than this one.
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T-Rex
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 119
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ArcadianRock
Agreed, standard fold here. I can easily see two pair acting here. Even if you are ahead here, don't pick this battle to fight, there are better opportunities you can take than this one.
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yup this is a huge thing in poker PICK YOUR BATTLES!!! huggeeee
multitabling / running good helps this haha
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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a bunch of things i wasn't clear enough about:
1) i'm not reading much into his stats because it's over 26 hands. I was saying that usually when people limp call, an alarm goes off warning me of small PP's and SC's so watch for that range. with someone who appears to limp call often, this same alarm isn't going off. no shit sets are still in his range though, they just don't dominate.
2) i'm not at all married to my cards here. i know i have jack given the situation, but there are factors that would make one believe that this is a great bluffing opportunity.
3) i get sucked in by calls that are tiny compared to the pot with any equity (not ATC, just any equity). i know this is a often a bad play, and i'm working on it, but i'm not certain this is one of those. i know it's just over 26 hands but he's been sleeping pre flop and waking up aggro post flop, so this much of a show of strength. i expect to be checked to after making this call 50% of the time, and my implied odds of hitting my set (one in twelvish, and effective stack is better than a hundred bb) seem to make up for the times that he does actually have it + times he has the balls to double barrel.
i'm not getting defensive, especially about calling on the flop because i'm still not sure it's the right play (just giving my thought process). but i already know that i'm likely behind here and want to focus on whether this A on the turn + his week bet makes for a +EV bluff opportunity
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas. |
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he probably has a queen and he's not folding it
the flop call is not terrible, but just fold the turn
the times he's going to fold to a raise are like once in a blue moon
he'll call a raise, the river will be a king and he'll call the river with Q2o
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XTR1000
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Location: surfing in a room
Posts: 2,188
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raising turn folds very little of his range. u may be barreling here if action to you was c/c - check, the way this hand went down he´s showing strength while you can´t credibly rep a lot.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
xtr stand for exotic tranny retards
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yo
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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thanks. that's a helpful point that just because a raise here puts him in a position where I would fold doesn't mean that HE'S going to fold what is probably the likes of a Q2o as you say.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas. |
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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OK...so first of all: theres something wrong with the HH and potsizes, right?
2nd: I wouldnt bet that flop, a check behind is way better here IMO.
3rd: what everyone else said...just fold turn
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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1. 18/0 = weak tight. not very strange
2. easy fold
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HarleyGuy13
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Oregon
Posts: 1,226
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WAT....You didn't hit your set and got raised.....Seems easy my friend!
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"You start the game with a full pot o’ luck and an empty pot o’ experience...
The object is to fill the pot of experience before you empty the pot of luck."
Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Do you have testicles? If so, learn to bet like it  |
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Flop fold is standard against many opponents. If he's doing this shit a lot, take it back away from him on the turn by raising to $5 and making him think about playing this hand for his stack.
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