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5nl QQ deep OOP

  
 
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rpm
Old 04-24-2010, 05:37 AM     Post subject: 5nl QQ deep OOP #1 (permalink)  
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 main villain is 19/3 over small sample. button is 11/8 over 158. i'm feeling crushed by his range when he raises the turn although we have little history to know how he plays. i'm more interested in what you guys think about my bet. i realised that they both definitely had sets in their ranges and didnt expect to be bluffed much. thus i was planning to bet/fold because i doubt either would be good enough to use their stack size and position to make me have to fold an overpair with a FD. the 19/3 could also have 35s - small sample but i've noticed a few guys with big gaps between VPIP and PFR often call raises with suited/remotely connectables because they saw daniel negreanu do it, or they are geniuses and realise that deep stack play tailors itself towards drawing hands implied odds blah blah blah. do you guys think bet/folding this turn is ok? i expect to be smoothed by 77-JJ a decent amount, as well as flush draws. so there is arguably value. but my main reason for bet/folding was to let them raise with what i assumed would only be straights/full houses/trips and save me from a deepstacked OOP river nightmare. that is probably just a product of my paranoia. i'm not sure if bet/folding really works here. thoughts?

the raise sizing doesnt suggest to me that its ever a flush draw. this would be way too clever a play for these 5nl guys because it puts me in such a tough river spot but would require them to realise i have an overpair and am able to realise the danger of playing overpairs deepstacked on these kind of boards. its also the perfect size the give me the impression of RIO and simultaneously the cheapest price to semi-bluff me. i dont know much about the minraiser so he may be of the "i'll put in a little raise to see if my pairs any good" school. how do you react?


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($5)
UTG ($7.49)
MP1 ($3.56)
Hero (MP2) ($12.50)
CO ($12.61)
Button ($12.62)
SB ($5.38)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $0.20, CO calls $0.20, Button calls $0.20, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.67) 6, 4, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50
Turn: ($2.17) 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.75, CO raises $3.50,
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Belt
Old 04-24-2010, 11:34 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Bet/fold seems to be the only way to play this turn imo. I'm also OK with the sizing.
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Hoopy
Old 04-24-2010, 12:35 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I'd say this is hardly ever a semi bluff, even though the sample is small 19/3 gives an indication this guy is passive. Guessing his range for the turn raise is {4x,66,22 and maybe 53}. Maybe include 1-2 combo's of something like 99 since he might raise that here.
 
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Donachello
Old 04-24-2010, 02:58 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 From experience, min-raises are almost always the nuts from players like this. I'd just like to note that you could probably change your bet-sizing on the turn a bit. I suppose that it's okay but since there board is so shitty you could probably make it smaller to price FDs in that I don't think are going to be calling an 80% PSB. Then again, you want to build a pot and I am a nit so you probably played it fine and can fold easily here.
[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

Problem officer...?
 
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nonofyobiz
Old 04-24-2010, 06:21 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I always call this knowing I shouldn't and I'm correct 95% of the time lol
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Redgyboy
Old 04-25-2010, 12:14 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 At first, looking at it...hishh. Then I started to play with this hand in PokerStove. Suprisingly, if you enter the flop and the turn, and given either a very wide range to villain or a somewhat tight range for this game, I always end up with over 70% equity heads up. So what about a reraise here ? It did actually surprised me a lot... and goes with what nonofyobiz stated. Although a pot control would be advised by many here.
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jaytoi
Old 04-25-2010, 12:26 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redgyboy View Post
At first, looking at it...hishh. Then I started to play with this hand in PokerStove. Suprisingly, if you enter the flop and the turn, and given either a very wide range to villain or a somewhat tight range for this game, I always end up with over 70% equity heads up. So what about a reraise here ? It did actually surprised me a lot... and goes with what nonofyobiz stated. Although a pot control would be advised by many here.
Villians range has probably altered dramatically after the minraise , so we can often find a fold. It depends if you think villian might think of slowplaying 99+ here.. :S

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
11,880 games 0.031 secs 383,225 games/sec
Board: 6d 4s 2s 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.374% 56.26% 01.11% 6684 132.00 { 99+, 66, 22, 53s+, 43s }
Hand 1: 42.626% 41.52% 01.11% 4932 132.00 { QQ }


Obv if he does "slow play" big pocket pairs then we're good enough of the time i suppose
If it's just KK and AA he does this with tho were wtfpwned.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
6,864 games 0.005 secs 1,372,800 games/sec
Board: 6d 4s 2s 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 94.231% 94.23% 00.00% 6468 0.00 { KK+, 66, 22, 53s+, 43s }
Hand 1: 05.769% 05.77% 00.00% 396 0.00 { QQ }


fuckin minraises..
Im ready this time.
 
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rpm
Old 04-25-2010, 12:40 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 3betting is not really an option for me here at all. i already feel like his range has me pretty beat. 3bettings not going to improve that situation.

now i look at it, i rarely think he ever even has 77-TT here. if he wanted to know where he was at by minraising, he'd be more likely to do this on the flop i think. when the bets are smaller and before that goddamn ace/king/queen that he knows is coming hits the turn and makes him poo his pants.

if he always has 88 and 99 here its a call (i have 45%), because the value hand combos are pretty thin. if he does with 88 and 99 50% of the time (3 combos each) i have only 30%.
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rpm
Old 04-25-2010, 12:46 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 i never even thought of KK,AA but i have no 3bet sample so i guess thats quite possible. i think he can definitely have 34s and 45s (perhaps even 46s) on the flop. i dont know much about this guy, but it would make sense for a 19/3 to want to see a flop deepstacked with those hands i guess. also you forgot the 1 combo of 44 jaytoi, not that its going to swing it too far either way.
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ljove
Old 04-25-2010, 01:44 AM #10 (permalink)  
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This board is so dry.Maybe he is donking you.Raise (all in maybe)
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Robb
Old 04-25-2010, 05:41 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 PSB flop, bet/fold turn 1/2 against one villain, 2/3 against two. Don't raise him, please.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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rpm
Old 04-26-2010, 02:24 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 raising was never an option here in my opinion.
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Poker Guru
Old 04-26-2010, 10:34 AM #13 (permalink)  
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 A fold is ok here. Villain raised you threeway and you are deep.
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Imthenewfish
Old 04-27-2010, 04:18 AM #14 (permalink)  
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I'd probably lose too much on this hand.
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rpm
Old 04-27-2010, 06:35 AM #15 (permalink)  
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 seems a loose consensus is to bet/fold/sleep happy at night in the QQ hand. good. thats what i did and i felt like i made a pretty good/disciplined laydown at the time but thought i should check up because i'm so vulnerable to being exploited on that turn, may range is pretty much TT+ and i guess a few FDs that i bet to make them incorrectly fold 77-TT or whatever. i dont continue with much of that to even a minraise.

i'd make a new thread for this one but its so similar the QQ hand i dont even think its relevant. what do you guys think? villain at the time seemed remotely in line, something like 22/14, over a tiny sample. he turned out to be an utter moron. running his stats up to 55/26 or something like that. and just spewing in general. because he has raised at least one hand preflop in our small time together, i dont think he's ever really limping JJ except maybe the 1/1000000 misclick. only believable two pair combo is 67s. and he may be calling the flop bet with 77. obviously i know very little about the guy so he can also be a spastic as he turned out to be and have any draw or pair. so basically he's an unknown 5nler who is repping pretty thin and who turned out to be a drooler but i didnt know this at the time so analyse the hand as played against a roughly 22/14 with no reads or history. we know he buys in deep, and has raised preflop before so is unlikely to turn out to be one of those dudes whose PFR is 2 or 3 and who make setmining so much fun. .35 is probably preferable pre but whatever.
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rpm
Old 04-27-2010, 06:37 AM #16 (permalink)  
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 oh yeah. the hand.


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($4.90)
Hero (BB) ($16.16)
UTG ($13.07)
UTG+1 ($3.16)
MP1 ($6.25)
MP2 ($11.89)
CO ($5)
Button ($12.47)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.05, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.05, 2 folds, SB calls $0.03, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.30, SB calls $0.30
Flop: ($1.10) J, 6, 2 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.80, MP2 calls $0.80, 1 fold
Turn: ($2.70) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.65, MP2 raises $3.30
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kmind
Old 04-27-2010, 06:53 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 Folding is fun
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Fnord
Old 04-28-2010, 11:05 AM #18 (permalink)  
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They seem too passive to put your monies in here.

That said, I push people around enough that I think about calling these down and see all sorts of toppest pair hands.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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rpm
Old 04-28-2010, 11:13 AM #19 (permalink)  
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 hand 1 i folded.
hand 2 i tanked/called the turn and check/snapcalled 75 cents on the river. villain showed J5s for one pair. needless to say i took a note on this. not that i expect to see him around too much.
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Imthenewfish
Old 04-29-2010, 04:50 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Looking back over this I think I would have checked the turn 3 handed. I realize it's probably not the highest EV play, but I would rather keep the pot small when I'm in the dark. It was three handed by the flop so I don't think a bet would win it on the flop. Your hand would probably stay good on the river, and if it doesn't you can usually expect a large pot between the other two in the hand. I just feel that betting will only build a bigger pot OOP while you're holding an overpair on a pretty dry board where you don't beat much of his range.
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