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PlayToWin
Old 04-06-2010, 02:09 AM     Post subject: 5NL Full Ring Hand - Overpair on Dry Flop #1 (permalink)  
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 I've got a great PF hand w/KK. The call by BB is pretty standard given his stats. On the flop, he raises my cbet, which indicates has a good hand. I wouldn't expect a bluff from a passive player. He could have {A2s, TT, JJ, QQ, KQ, AQ, AA}. I call because I know I'm ahead of his range. Pokerstove says it's 65% to 35%. Also, by calling the raise, I rep a strong hand and maybe he'll slow down without a legit hand.

On the Turn, he quickly bet the pot. My read was that he wanted to get the money in. On the Turn, I narrow his range to {A2s, QQ, KQ, AQ, AA} which Pokerstove puts me at a 58% to 42% favorite. If I take out KQ, I'm slightly behind 48% to 52%. I guess either calling or folding wouldn't be a big mistake here. What do you guys think?


Villian is 39/0/0 over 39 hands. He had 'raised C-bet Vs PFR' 2 of 3 times. He hadn't seen any showdowns, but had WWSF of 42%.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($10.08)
Hero (CO) ($5.93)
Button ($1.93)
SB ($6.10)
BB ($10.27)
UTG ($4.93)
UTG+1 ($10.53)
MP1 ($15.30)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
4 folds, Hero bets $0.20, 2 folds, BB calls $0.15
Flop: ($0.42) 2, Q, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.50
Turn: ($2.02) 10 (2 players)
BB bets $2.05, Hero ?
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littleogre
Old 04-06-2010, 12:29 PM #2 (permalink)  

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 think he has a Q or a 2. I would think a villain who has a vpip of 39 is calling raises around 20 percent of the time. That range just doesn't have many 2s I would call the turn. Simply because the math says so. On the river i would fold if it is an ace or Q. Those are both bad cards. Well assuming he bets a decent amount.
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littleogre
Old 04-06-2010, 12:31 PM #3 (permalink)  

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 having said all that Villain probably showed up with Q2 suited
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Santo2True
Old 04-06-2010, 01:14 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 ^ or any Q suited, or even Q9o+ maybe even worse!
a fold is bad
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spoonitnow
Old 04-06-2010, 03:25 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I think if you fold here you should be shot. The range you're putting this guy on is insanely tight, and he's going to show up with a lot of random Queens but not nearly as many random Twos.
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PlayToWin
Old 04-06-2010, 04:25 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
I think if you fold here you should be shot. The range you're putting this guy on is insanely tight, and he's going to show up with a lot of random Queens but not nearly as many random Twos.
Shoot me now. It still "felt like" I was beat and villian would be shoving on the River. I was telling myself not to stack off with an OP.

I'd say my play was affected by stacking off 200bb deep a few hands before w/AA overpair. That was a different situation though, with a drawy board and reraise on the Turn.
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littleogre
Old 04-07-2010, 11:15 AM #7 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by PlayToWin View Post
Shoot me now. It still "felt like" I was beat and villian would be shoving on the River. I was telling myself not to stack off with an OP.

I'd say my play was affected by stacking off 200bb deep a few hands before w/AA overpair. That was a different situation though, with a drawy board and reraise on the Turn.
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Santo2True
Old 04-07-2010, 12:34 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by PlayToWin View Post
Shoot me now. It still "felt like" I was beat and villian would be shoving on the River. I was telling myself not to stack off with an OP.

I'd say my play was affected by stacking off 200bb deep a few hands before w/AA overpair. That was a different situation though, with a drawy board and reraise on the Turn.

he reraised the flop, but i'm sure that what's you meant. but the only reason any fish would reraise the flop is because he has a Q and wants you out of the hand now. He's not going to raise A2 here I don't think. I mean I'd see him more likely hiding a hand like that by just calling you. you were just a little to passive on this hand imo
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