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5NL FR, bcs is split pot, but i can't see folding here

  
 
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surviva316
Old 06-22-2009, 04:53 PM     Post subject: 5NL FR, bcs is split pot, but i can't see folding here #1 (permalink)  
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 main villain in BB, is 46/1.6/1.2 mega donk. he calls 37% of PFR's so his call leaves him with a huge range starting out. I have this note on him:
flat A8s IP, then bet/call CRAI on 98x w a BDFD (back door FD).

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($1)
CO ($6.02)
Button ($0.93)
Hero (SB) ($9.33)
BB ($9.15)
UTG ($1.32)
UTG+1 ($5.31)
MP1 ($5.03)

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.05, 2 folds, CO calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold

i think i should raise more here, since i'm going to be OOP against a few people that love to limp/call, so wouldn't mind discussion here but it's far from my main question

Flop: ($0.95) , , (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks

the two villains are 46% and 37% fold to F Cbet, and i'd seen one of them call their whole stack with the nut FD, so i'm never cbetting here OOP without at least a good BDFD (and probably not even then)

Turn: ($0.95) (3 players)
Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.75, 1 fold

obv. no questions here

River: ($2.45) (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BB raises to $5.25, Hero???

so here's where it gets interesting. once he pushes, i know that i'm winning this pot outright like 0.01% of the time, but all that dead money is worth defending here, right?

he needs any nine, JJ or AA to beat me. There are 3 combos each of AA and JJ and either way he played them like a retard. it's tough to put just how many 9's are in his range because he calls preflop with like 1/3 of ATC, so does this seem right: {97s (1), 98s (1), T9s (1), J9 (3), Q9 (4), K9 (3), A9 (2)}. anyway no matter which of those hands he may have he played it retarded. so that's 21 combos that beat me, and i see absolutely any goddamn Ax playing this hand this way given our reads, and there are well over 100 of those excluding AA and A9. so we're committed to a call here, and hell this guy's dumb enough that we might even take the pot here like one in a hundred times.

but if we're gonna call a push anyway without ever expecting to win, aren't we just better off open pushing and having all of his hundreds of Ax hands fold out and actually make profit on this hand? or, he's not a complete station, so can't we check and hope he bets with a J here (he is totally capable of doing this based on reads). thoughts?
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Old 06-22-2009, 05:34 PM #2 (permalink)  
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he needs any nine
there's only one nine, bro
might as well say
Quote:
he needs THE nine
and there's not three combos of AA
you hold Ah, As is on the board he would obviously need AcAd exactly


btw, he's never folding Ax to a push in a billion years or value betting a jack
he's calling with a jack and checking it back if he can
call this and you played it right
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rllngn
Old 06-22-2009, 08:04 PM #3 (permalink)  

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rllngn
i think i would fold and save the money, you not going to win that much if its a spilt pot anyway, the person who will make the most cash is the rake, i would fold and wait for a better hand, cause he was liable to get the nine, and the check call and reraise on river makes me believe he had the nine all along and was hopinig you had ace king or ace something
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shoneec
Old 06-22-2009, 10:05 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I'd never fold in such situation.

The donk can have an ace , and donks just love calling c/bet on a paired board with A high in their hand. Having a J is also a possibility. It is highly unlikely he has the 9, although you said his range is wide.


I'd simply call.
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clvacva
Old 06-22-2009, 10:25 PM #5 (permalink)  
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what do you think he called the turn with?
This is an easy call. so easy.
If he has A9,J9, 9x then good for him.
Otherwise we chop or win.
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surviva316
Old 06-22-2009, 10:53 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 i shouldn't've put all those question marks after "hero's turn to act. i did wanna double check on my call but i was fairly confident i'd made the right play. my question was about the BET/CALL line in general.

iopq pointed out the obvious reason for why i should never open shove this (because an ace is NEVER folding here). i'm still not quite as convinced that based on reads that c/c isn't a better way to get value from worse hands
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Parasurama
Old 06-23-2009, 03:21 AM #7 (permalink)  
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c/c is bad because people won't bet with worse full houses that they will call with
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