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5NL: AQ donked into a 3-bet pot

  
 
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miracleriver
Old 07-11-2008, 08:17 PM     Post subject: 5NL: AQ donked into a 3-bet pot #1 (permalink)  
Straight

Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 173
miracleriver
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($9.20)
MP2 ($10.56)
MP3 ($5.70)
CO ($5.42)
Hero ($4.93)
SB ($7.80)
BB ($4.98)
UTG ($4.16)
UTG+1 ($3.72)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q.
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.15, MP2 calls $0.15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.55, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.40, MP2 folds.

Flop: ($1.32) 3, J, 8 (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.65, Hero ???

No reads on villain.
His bet size confuses me a bit. It is telling me, "I sorta wanna build a big pot but not really."
Is villain more likely strong or weak?
 
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Robb
Old 07-12-2008, 05:35 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
Robb is an unknown quantity at this point
 Without a read, I'm on the fence. My guess is that he connected with the flop, but not TPTK. All 6 of your outs are probably live. I probably lean toward betting $2 and folding to any play back.

Folding is not a big mistake.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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miracleriver
Old 07-12-2008, 08:17 PM #3 (permalink)  
Straight

Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 173
miracleriver
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Without a read, I'm on the fence. My guess is that he connected with the flop, but not TPTK. All 6 of your outs are probably live. I probably lean toward betting $2 and folding to any play back.
It seems obvious and I should have stated it in op but I assume we are behind on the flop. And if so, we raise to induce him to fold a weak but better hand than ours. Right?

My question is this: do you lean toward raising because you think/guess he is weaker than TPTK or it is a situation where he could be either stronger or weaker than TPTK?

Also I am curious as to why he doesn't have TPTK. How would an avg player play TPTK in villain's spot?
 
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Robb
Old 07-12-2008, 08:41 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Posts: 3,072
Robb is an unknown quantity at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by miracleriver
It seems obvious and I should have stated it in op but I assume we are behind on the flop. And if so, we raise to induce him to fold a weak but better hand than ours. Right?
We may be behind his actual cards, but our range is ahead of his range. We have an advantage both positionally and with respect to what range we're representing. He's more scared of us than we need to be of him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miracleriver
My question is this: do you lean toward raising because you think/guess he is weaker than TPTK or it is a situation where he could be either stronger or weaker than TPTK?
Typical 3bet calling range is something like AJ+, 99 - QQ and maybe KQ. And your cards diminish the number of hands he can have even further. If he's "connected" with the flop, he's got a set of J's or something like TT or 99. But nothing in his range hits this board hard except JJ. QQ would suck for us if it goes to showdown, but he's not gonna like continuing with it very much.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miracleriver
Also I am curious as to why he doesn't have TPTK. How would an avg player play TPTK in villain's spot?
Just a guess. A lot of players DO call with AJ, but it's just not that likely given the overall 3bet calling range.

I just posted on 3betting, if you're interested in my thoughts on the general theory of it: Microstakes 3betting.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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