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5NL: 1010 Overpair vs. TAG

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Cougar

05-13-2009, 09:32 PM Post subject: 5NL: 1010 Overpair vs. TAG

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2008

Location: Pennsylvania

Posts: 121

Found a great table, 3 FEEESH and a PITA TAG reg.

UTG Villain is solid TAG 12/8/2.7 over 350+ hands
Button is FEESH, doesn't matter for purposes of this hand

PF: We get a decent hand, TAG raises UTG and one FEESH calls, so far so good.
Flop: Pretty good flop for us, we have a small overpair. TAG makes a normal c-bet (Not Surprising), we are ahead of unpaired paint cards (AK/AQ are real possibilities) and low PP (<77) and behind higher overpairs. FEESH folds (UGH), let's call and see if he is serious.
Turn: Another undercard, no help for anyone. A solid bet meaning he's serious taking low PP and unpaired paint cards out of the range, we pretty much only beat 8x, so it's time to fold....

Specific Questions:
Does anyone fold flop?
Does anyone NOT fold turn?
Would a flop Re-Raise/Fold be a good line?
How would you play this differently with JJ or QQ?

THANK YOU!!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($11.61)
MP ($6.97)
Button ($9.08)
SB ($2.64)
Hero (BB) ($5)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10

, 10

UTG bets $0.20, 1 fold, Button calls $0.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.62) 9

, 8

, 9

(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.22) 5

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.80, Hero ???

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siltstrider

05-13-2009, 10:28 PM

#2 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2009

Posts: 85

I'm still new to this whole "thinking about my opponent" thing, so take my thoughts with a grain of salt.

I think a flop c/r would scare him off his air and only make him come back at you with stuff that beats you. Also, what does he think of you? Does he think you're another fish or might he have reason to think he could actually double-barrel you off a hand? How often have you seen him double-barrel? Has he shown up with the goods or have people folded to his double-barrels often?

What was your plan when you were calling on the flop? I don't think TT is something you want to take to war here but it might be a decent bluff catcher. That is, if he wasn't raising UTG. Do you know what his range looks like here? AK and AQ are possibilities, but how low do his PP go? If he his UTG range is just TT+, AK, AQ, then I think you'd be behind, but not so much more so that a fold would be correct.

TdTs has 47.765% equity against a range of 88+, AQs+, AQo+ on a board of 9s 8d 9c 5s. Due to the money already in the pot, folding would be wrong here.

More interestingly, when you tighten his UTG range to TT+, AQs+, AQo+, PokerStove says you have 50.638% equity, making you a slight favorite.

So yeah, I don't know if I would raise him, as that might cut down his range to stuff that beats you, but folding has got to be the worst option here. You're in a great position to catch a bluff here.

On second thought, though, I might consider raising him to prevent him from drawing to his overcards if he has them, or at least make him pay more to do so. Still not sure if that would likely restrict his range to stuff that beats us, though.

Again, you'd also have to know if he would fire a second barrel (isn't this typical of TAG players?) with AQo+, AQs+, because if his range for a flop cbet is TT+, AQs+, AQo+ but his range for a turn barrel is tightened to TT+, then your equity falls to 6.364%, making a fold the best choice. The best choice here pretty much depends on how frequently he double-barrels when checked to.

On second thought, I like this fold. His stats don't read "TAG" but "nit" to me. Unless I've seen him getting in and barreling the turn with overcards, I'd probably give him the benefit of the doubt, since pretty much every other hand in his PFR range has you beat on this board.

Gshark

05-13-2009, 11:40 PM

#3 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 65

Any reads or stats on this guy? Do you put 88 or A9 in his range?

Most likely I'd call here and re evaluate the river.

AFchung

05-14-2009, 03:55 AM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2008

Location: UCLA

Posts: 1,179

i like a fold here. he's raising utg, he has nitty stats, and TT only beats a bluff and is way behind JJ+

remember to consider your hand against his range, not just your hand against the board texture

http://afchung.blogspot.com/

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