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Carroters
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03-24-2009, 03:29 PM
Post subject: 55 flops good, facing heat.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Villain is pretty lose and a bit of a station although not a huge one. He runs 30/9/2 over 412 hands and multi-tables fwiw.
What's our plan here?
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($5.47)
BB ($20.31)
Hero (UTG) ($33.48)
MP ($20)
CO ($16.64)
Button ($3.55)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5 , 5
Hero bets $0.80, 4 folds, BB calls $0.60
Flop: ($1.70) 3, 6 , 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.30, BB raises $3.50
Total pot: $4.30
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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We are getting less than 2-1 on the flop with at most ten outs, but we really have no idea how clean any of them are. There are very few 5x hands in his range, and we only beat Axhh (assuming it's not the 6h). We pretty much have a straight draw but what kind of implied odds are we getting? How likely is he to stack off on the turn with a a board of 6543, 6432, or 7643? This could also be TT-QQ so I dunno. We have ~37% equity against a range of sets, AhKh and QQ-TT so I guess you could just stick it in.
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Ich grolle nicht...
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mieczkowusc
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Lurking in BC or IRC
Posts: 225
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Since he is a station, I am more inclined to call here than raise. Against a standard player, I would probably just come over the top, but since its likely you can extract a good deal of value from this player, I think a call would be better.
If he bets a blank turn, I may call depending on the size but will most likely fold.
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
Since he is a station, I am more inclined to call here than raise.
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Wait, so stations fold to flop shoves now?
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Ich grolle nicht...
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okiman
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 171
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
Since he is a station, I am more inclined to call here than raise.
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Wait, so stations fold to flop shoves now? |
I think miec's point is since he's a calling station, we're better able to extract if we hit one of our outs on the turn, but unlikely to get much fold equity on top of our about 37%.
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mieczkowusc
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Lurking in BC or IRC
Posts: 225
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by okiman
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
Since he is a station, I am more inclined to call here than raise.
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Wait, so stations fold to flop shoves now? |
I think miec's point is since he's a calling station, we're better able to extract if we hit one of our outs on the turn, but unlikely to get much fold equity on top of our about 37%. |
That exactly my point. If a station is raising you on this board, he likely has at least top pair, if not something more. If you were to ship it on this flop, you would be getting your money in bad.
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
Quote:
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Originally Posted by okiman
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
Since he is a station, I am more inclined to call here than raise.
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Wait, so stations fold to flop shoves now? |
I think miec's point is since he's a calling station, we're better able to extract if we hit one of our outs on the turn, but unlikely to get much fold equity on top of our about 37%. |
That exactly my point. If a station is raising you on this board, he likely has at least top pair, if not something more. If you were to ship it on this flop, you would be getting your money in bad. |
It's not about "getting your money in bad" it's about making the most +ev plays. If you're stacking off here w/ 37% equity you're making money. You're saying you're going to wait until you have a hand to ship it? You know you only have that high equity assuming you see the river, right? He's stacking off with A6 here then you're happy.
41(.37) x 20 (.63) = $2.57.
If you think my range is off, then I can understand not stacking off...
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Ich grolle nicht...
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borges
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: la biblioteca de Babel
Posts: 21
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
Quote:
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Originally Posted by okiman
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
Since he is a station, I am more inclined to call here than raise.
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Wait, so stations fold to flop shoves now? |
I think miec's point is since he's a calling station, we're better able to extract if we hit one of our outs on the turn, but unlikely to get much fold equity on top of our about 37%. |
That exactly my point. If a station is raising you on this board, he likely has at least top pair, if not something more. If you were to ship it on this flop, you would be getting your money in bad. |
It's not about "getting your money in bad" it's about making the most +ev plays. If you're stacking off here w/ 37% equity you're making money. You're saying you're going to wait until you have a hand to ship it? You know you only have that high equity assuming you see the river, right? He's stacking off with A6 here then you're happy.
41(.37) x 20 (.63) = $2.57.
If you think my range is off, then I can understand not stacking off... |
I don't understand your logic; maybe my calculations are off but if you ship and he calls you need 44.7 percent equity. Your equity against a hand like Ad6d is 41 percent.
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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Where are you getting 44.7%?
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Ich grolle nicht...
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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cbetting is bleh
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mieczkowusc
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Lurking in BC or IRC
Posts: 225
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Edit: nvm
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
cbetting is bleh
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good point, if we're not going to shove it in
if calling is better than shoving, then checking it back is better than cbetting
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Yeah I agree the c bet is bad if I'm not going to ship it in here. I do prefer calling his raise and seeing a turn, that's what I did here. I figure he'll still stack off with a set if I make a straight or biiger set on the turn and I'm getting decent odds here to call.
The I have loads of outs here and some sd value so checking it back is probably better. He isn't likely to call a c bet with worse, except for maybe a few draws that have good equity against us.
The turn paired the 6 which was a terrible card and I folded to his $6 insta bet. I think die to the passiveness of this vaillain and 20NL this is too often a set for my liking and I don't want to ship flop for this reason.
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Erpel
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 605
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
cbetting is bleh
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good point, if we're not going to shove it in
if calling is better than shoving, then checking it back is better than cbetting |
I think this is instructive and something I need to do more - think about the situations I am likely to end up in if I put money in here. What do I do if he raises, what do I do if he calls?
I think this relates is our strategy for this situation. We're raising UTG so we are presumably given credit for a premium hand range - and while the flop hits our actual hand it doesn't really nail our range - no part of the flop really helps the majority of our range, although we have a fair share of overpairs in our range. But I think many of those overpairs would want to play pot control lines. There aren't really that many hands in our range that are desperately looking to get all-in. Probably only the sets and the A-high flush draws. This means if we bet our nut range is very narrow and our perceived bluff range correspondingly wide.
I think iopqs observation comes down to commitment. If we have a hand like 33, 44, 66, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh we can bet/shove on the flop - but if we're not looking to accelerate our way towards commitment we are looking to control the size of the pot. Betting and then calling a raise because we are priced in is a poor way to control the size of the pot. Better to check behind and get some more information before deciding whether to build a big pot.
The secondary hands that we might be willing to stack off with light would be AA-QQ, 77, JJ, 55 pretty much in that order.
Most of our hand range is solid equity wise but not looking to stack off. Most of our hand range is looking to put in one or two bets, raises or calls before the showdown. If we end up facing a third bet most of our hand range will not see continuing as profitable.
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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So apparently all flop raises mean sets? That's the impression I consistently get from FTR. -.-
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Ich grolle nicht...
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borges
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: la biblioteca de Babel
Posts: 21
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
Where are you getting 44.7%?
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The effective stack is the smaller of the two or 20.31.
20.31 - .80 - 1.30 =18.21
So after you bet the flop there is 18.21 dollars that can go in.
if he calls your bet there is 1.70+1.30+1.30=4.30 in the pot.
If you raise and allin and he calls there you are betting 18.21 to win
4.30+18.21 =22.51 so you are getting pot odds of
22.51/18.21= 1.236:1 which in turn translates in an equity required of
1/(1+1.23613)= 44.7 percent equity
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by borges
If you raise and allin and he calls there you are betting 18.21 to win
4.30+18.21 =22.51 so you are getting pot odds of
22.51/18.21= 1.236:1 which in turn translates in an equity required of
1/(1+1.23613)= 44.7 percent equity
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You're talking pot odds and I'm talking about expected value. Since EV should govern all our decisions in poker, I tend to focus on that more than pot odds. If we have 41% pot equity against his calling range and shove that flop, we probably have some FE as well. Even if not, if we have 40% equity against his stacking off range, then this move is clearly +ev.
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Ich grolle nicht...
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borges
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: la biblioteca de Babel
Posts: 21
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[/quote]
It's not about "getting your money in bad" it's about making the most +ev plays. If you're stacking off here w/ 37% equity you're making money. You're saying you're going to wait until you have a hand to ship it? You know you only have that high equity assuming you see the river, right? He's stacking off with A6 here then you're happy.
41(.37) x 20 (.63) = $2.57.
If you think my range is off, then I can understand not stacking off...[/quote]
My post was about the series of statements that you made here. I did the calculation to try to show you that it didnt make sense.
Calculation of pot odds is part of the calculation required to compute the E[Value] of a certain action, in this case going all in. I think my participation in this thread is now over.
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