|
hecklerjoe
|
03-10-2005, 06:55 PM
Post subject: 50/50 Gamble
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5
|
|
In many situations, your put in a call that's pretty much 50/50 percent. For example, ppen end straights, flush draws, you have KK with A showing.....if someone is betting 8 bucks in a .5/1 table and you $25 bank roll, do you call? I know it depends but generally, would you? Yes or no?
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
montimus
|
|
03-10-2005, 07:14 PM
Post subject: Re: 50/50 Gamble
|
#2 (permalink)
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 154
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by hecklerjoe
In many situations, your put in a call that's pretty much 50/50 percent. For example, ppen end straights, flush draws, you have KK with A showing.....if someone is betting 8 bucks in a .5/1 table and you $25 bank roll, do you call? I know it depends but generally, would you? Yes or no?
|
The answer to this question in every situation should depend on your opponent.
Here's a little example...I sat down at a table today and picked up AQ suited first hand. I bet 5x the BB, opponent calls. Flop gives me an OESD four to a flush, plus I've got 2 overs--9 10 J 2 spades. Opponent goes all in for about a third of my stack. I'm calling this bet every time because I know it's very likely my opponet only has a jack(I have notes on the guy from playing with him before). Sure enough he shows j6 offsuit and takes down the pot. I knew my opponent and knew that I had a buttload of outs, so I called. If I had though he had flopped the straight, I would have folded outright. But because I knew that he was the kinda guy that played any 2 cards for any price preflop, I was able to narrow down what he likely had.
That's one of the things you've gotta do when you decide you're going to draw...have a good idea what your opponent has versus the chance you'll catch your hand. If you catch your hand will it hold up versus what your opponent has or is drawing to?
|
|
|
|
thestrokes
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
|
|
Open ended straight draws have a 50% chance of catching? Wow I've been playing all wrong, folding these to a pot sized bet!
|
|
|
|
Molinero
|
|
03-10-2005, 09:28 PM
Post subject: Re: 50/50 Gamble
|
#4 (permalink)
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: In The General Vicinity of Dallas
Posts: 230
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by hecklerjoe
In many situations, your put in a call that's pretty much 50/50 percent. For example, ppen end straights, flush draws, you have KK with A showing.....if someone is betting 8 bucks in a .5/1 table and you $25 bank roll, do you call? I know it depends but generally, would you? Yes or no?
|
The only thing remotely similar to a 50/50 chance is a pocket pair against overcards -- before the flop.
OESD and flush draw are about 3-1 against. KK with A showing? You only have two outs. If you put him on an ace, you have to fold -- unless he bets 1/24th of the pot.
In any case, if all I've got is an OESD or a flush draw, and someone bets $8 at a pot of less than $24, I have to fold.
Make calls based on who your opponent is, sure -- within the context of the pot odds for your draw. Worry about implied odds later.
To put it another way: just because you're sure he's bluffing doesn't make it a good idea to call his bet with no hand of your own.
|
|
"We thought you was a toad!"
-- O Brother Where Art Thou?
|
|
giantdogs92
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 52
|
|
wait so OESD nd flush draws are goin to hit what percent of this time now?
|
"If you even dream of beating me you'd better wake up and apoligize" -Muhammed Ali
|
|
jmontis
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
|
|
AA and KK are good hands, but don't lose your entire stack with them. Win small pots with them, and put your money on huge hands like FH, straights, flushes, etc.
|
|
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
|
|
Aceofone
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 497
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by thestrokes
Open ended straight draws have a 50% chance of catching? Wow I've been playing all wrong, folding these to a pot sized bet!
|
NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT.
Carefull with the way the original post in this thread was worded.
An Open ended straight flush draw will hit slightly more than 1/2 the time, assuming your flush outs aren't dead.
An Open ended straight draw, will hit ~1/3 times on the turn or river.
|
|
|
|
DoGGz
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Aceofone
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by thestrokes
Open ended straight draws have a 50% chance of catching? Wow I've been playing all wrong, folding these to a pot sized bet!
|
NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT.
Carefull with the way the original post in this thread was worded.
An Open ended straight flush draw will hit slightly more than 1/2 the time, assuming your flush outs aren't dead.
An Open ended straight draw, will hit ~1/3 times on the turn or river. |
I think strokes sarcasm went right over your head.
|
|
|
|
Molinero
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: In The General Vicinity of Dallas
Posts: 230
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Aceofone
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by thestrokes
Open ended straight draws have a 50% chance of catching? Wow I've been playing all wrong, folding these to a pot sized bet!
|
NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT.
Carefull with the way the original post in this thread was worded.
An Open ended straight flush draw will hit slightly more than 1/2 the time, assuming your flush outs aren't dead.
An Open ended straight draw, will hit ~1/3 times on the turn or river. |
Look again.
I don't think he's talking about OESFD. He's making a list, in which he includes OESD, flush draws, KK with A on the board as "50-50" situations...which, individually and collectively, they are not.
|
|
"We thought you was a toad!"
-- O Brother Where Art Thou?
|
|
jmontis
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
|
|
people ought to tone down sarcasm on replies, sure it's funny sometimes but someone might read it and say "oh so oesd's do hit 50% of the time"..... etc. don't be a douche
|
|
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
|
|
BeeJall
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Canada
Posts: 81
|
|
In coinflip situations I'd probably have to fold. You'll get better chances to win money later depending on how much money you're sitting on. On straight draws or flush draws, I'd fold if someone made a big bet, but on straight/flush draws, you've got a lot of outs so I'd probably call.
|
|
|
|
thestrokes
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
|
|
OLD POST:
Open ended straight draws have a 50% chance of catching? Wow I've been playing all wrong, folding these to a pot sized bet!
NEW POST:
Open ended straight draws have a 50% chance of catching? Wow I've been playing all wrong, folding these to a pot sized bet! (SARCASM)
ill do that from now on so hopefully that will keep my douchism (new word) down jmontis...
Also he had a comma in between the straight draw and flush draw so i assumed it was too separate things.
dont be douches all
cheers
|
|
|
|
thestrokes
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
|
|
i dont think anyone ever really answered the question.
Generally (meaning 95% of the time) I would fold unless i had poistive information to do the contrary.
|
|
"Confidence not overconfidence"
-radashack
|
|
mimmons775
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 92
|
|
i think i would just give them the pot, if they called your preflop raise, especially if theres more than one who called it, theres a very good chance that they have the ace. in a 10 person full ring game, there will be an ace in someones hand every hand dealt. And since most people over vaule an ace, theres a good chance that your opponent has it.
|
|
"I guess if there wasnt luck involved id win everyone."
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
