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4 and 2 rule...Is this right?

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aytopper

07-29-2006, 02:28 AM Post subject: 4 and 2 rule...Is this right?

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About 2 weeks ago I was reading my bathroom material (The Little Green Book) and I read this section about a 4 and 2 rule. Which states that if you multiply the amount of outs you have by 4 on the flop and 2 on the turn you can get a quick percentage of making your hand. So, without even thinking about it I try it out and WOW I can make a lot of calls I wouldn't normally be able to do.

Just today I'm wondering about this system because I start losing some money due to a lot of chasing. Well, okay here is an example:

Say I have 4 outs(gut shot straight draw).
On the flop:

Gordon method - 4 x 4 = 16. 16% chance of hitting my gut shot.
Outs/rest of deck - 4/47 = 8.5. 8.5% chance of hitting my gut shot.
Ratio - 4:47 = 11. 11:1 on hitting my gutshot.

16% and 8.5% is a huge diffrence. Now when I realized this I was confused. Could Phil Gordon's system be messed up?

If my math is wrong above please correct me, and inform me on how this is done. Thanks.

-aytopper

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jackvance

07-29-2006, 02:44 AM

#2 (permalink)

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4 outs for your gutshot

4x4=16% to hit over turn+river (with 2 cards coming)
4x2=8% to hit on the turn (or the river, so with 1 card coming)

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aytopper

07-29-2006, 03:42 AM

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So if you are using the ratio method you would divide it by 2 on the flop and nothing on the turn?

flop: 4/47 - 11:1 - 2/11 - about 6:1?
turn: 4/46 - 11:1.

This correct?

bigspenda73

07-29-2006, 04:18 AM

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Horrible rule, pay no attention to it, whoever wrote this should be seriously injured. That is all.

swiggidy

07-29-2006, 05:19 AM

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Aytopper, you are way over thinking this.

If you have one out:
1/47 = 0.021 ~= 2%

So with 1 card to come (on the turn) and x outs:
2*x

With 2 cards to come (on the flop, assuming a free river) and x outs:
2*2*x = 4*x

Converting percentages to odds is a different question. I didn't look at your math. If you think there is a problem there are quite a few good posts about this (several by me).

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Horrible rule, pay no attention to it, whoever wrote this should be seriously injured. That is all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

To anyone reading this post. If there is a math post by someone with less than 100 (maybe even 250) posts be very wary.

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BeeJall

07-29-2006, 05:28 AM

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It's just a quick way to find out roughly what your chances are of hitting your outs on the flop and turn. It would be useful if you are in the middle of a hand and don't know the odds off the top of your head and don't feel like getting out a calculator.. or using your brain.

biondino

07-29-2006, 10:38 AM

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aytopper, the problem with the 4x rule is that it is only really relevant when you or your opponent is all-in on the flop, because then there are guaranteed to be no further bets on the turn (or river).

If both players still have decent stacks, you can't follow the 4x rule because the villain may well make another bet on the turn. So you need to think of good odds as following the 2x rule on both the flop and the turn.

(then, of course, implied odds become relevant - but that's another topic)

Pelion

07-29-2006, 10:48 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Horrible rule, pay no attention to it, whoever wrote this should be seriously injured. That is all.

Care to give any reasons with that? Or are you just spouting for no reason at all?

I dont know if you play holdem at all but multiplying the number of outs by 2 gives a very good estimate of the percentage chance you have of hitting on the next card.
If you have a draw with ALOT of outs, (i.e. 10 or more) then the 2x rule starts to overestimate but even then its only a couple of percent over and in a no limit game implied odds will almost always make up for that.

So to clarify.

you have an OESD for 8 outs on the flop.

you multiply your 8 outs by 2 for a 8*2 = 16% chance of hitting on the turn, and another 16% on the river.

This compares pretty favorably to the exact answer of 8/47 = 0.1702 = 17.02%

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bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

jackvance

07-29-2006, 11:11 AM

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forget ratio's, they suck.. just use percentages

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Lukie

07-30-2006, 06:54 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Horrible rule, pay no attention to it, whoever wrote this should be seriously injured. That is all.

ignore this post

Lukie

07-30-2006, 06:57 AM

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This is generally what goes on in MY mind...

(flop) multiply your outs by 4, then subtract 1 for every out after 8 outs. IE a flush draw generally has 9 outs. 9x4=36, minus the 1 out over 8 = 35.

(turn) cards that make your hand divided by cards that don't.

So for example an OESD has 8 outs divided by 47 unseen cards = approximately 1/6 chance to hit.

DaNutsInYoEye

07-30-2006, 08:37 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Horrible rule, pay no attention to it, whoever wrote this should be seriously injured. That is all.

ignore this post

Thank you Lukie. After reading that post I felt like a moron because I rely on heavily on this rule. After reading the response of such a handsome and well respected poker player like you though I'm back to feeling like I can conquer the poker world.

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Lukie

07-30-2006, 04:31 PM

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bigspenda73

07-30-2006, 11:40 PM

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It is a horrible rule cause all of you players are looking for the easy way out. You know what beginners should do, learn the game. Not look for an easy way out to calculate odds b/c it is somewhat difficult. If you spend the time assessing these situations, getting the damn calculator out and realizing the exact numbers then you will give yourself a better understanding of the game. Oh, and its not a horrible rule? Give me the odds for a gutshot, they are not 8% with one card to come, more like just under 10%. Last time I checked it wasn't 12.5 to 1 to make 4 outs, it was 10.5 to 1. Learn the game, do the math yourself, stop looking for an easy way out, and improve your play in the process. Oh yea, and the thing about math from someone with posts under 100, how about someone who double majored in accounting and calculus? Just a hunch, but I think I know how to work a calculator. If you want good exact odds than stop looking for the easy way out. I thought the ideas of this forum was to improve play, not to present a wishy washy idea of what good play could be. I do regret calling this a "horrible" rule. It is not that horrible, it is just not that great either. If I offened anyone I apologize.

P.S.-the idea that you can make more calls using the method than before is ludicrous. This method actually robs you of some percentages, as I presented before with the gutshot. This methods allows you to call only 8% of the time while you should be able to call 1/10.5 times, or roughly 9.5% of the times. My suggestion for everyone, get out the calculator or visit a site with a drawing chart and study it. At the very least you will be thinking more about your play and less about how to make this game simple. It's a complex game and will stay that way.

dsmrolla06

07-31-2006, 12:22 AM

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Theres absolutely nothing wrong with this rule. When your sitting at a table and facing a bet, you dont care if your math is off by 1%... Myself, i prefer putting everything in a ratio, IE you have 4 to a flush, chances on the next card you hit your flush is 4:1, i think its easier to calculate pot odds doing this.

swiggidy

07-31-2006, 01:09 AM

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First off, settle down.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Oh yea, and the thing about math from someone with posts under 100, how about someone who double majored in accounting and calculus? Just a hunch, but I think I know how to work a calculator.

Double major, very impressive.

I made the statement about 100 posts because people post inaccurate math all the time. The FTR experienced people either don't post math, or know what they are talking about. If you don't believe me browse through the beginner archive.

It also isn't helpful to post:

Quote:

pay no attention to it, whoever wrote this should be seriously injured. That is all.

without explaining why you believe so.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

It's not the easy way out. Try explaining to someone how to take 4 outs, or 16% and turn it into 5.5:1 in their head without the benefit of a calculator. Does it really matter if it is actually 5.3 or 5.7?

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Give me the odds for a gutshot, they are not 8% with one card to come, more like just under 10%. Last time I checked it wasn't 12.5 to 1 to make 4 outs, it was 10.5 to 1.

4/46 = 8.696%

8% => 1:11.5
8.7% => 1:10.5
not a big difference

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

This methods allows you to call only 8% of the time while you should be able to call 1/10.5 times, or roughly 9.5% of the times.

1:10.5 != 1/10.5

Odds, 1 time I win, 10.5 times I loose.
Probability, 1 time out of (1 + 10.5) = 11.5 times I loose.

Wait a second... At what school can you get a major in calculus?

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Miffed22001

07-31-2006, 01:34 AM

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Quote:

omg roflicious.
If i didnt know better id be flaming or something equally as fun.
Its simple, the 4 and 2 rule is a rough guestimation of yur percentage to win the pot. It does not need to be exact on each street. The 4 and 2 rule is close enough for our purposes
Arguably if you get a to call a bet that is 10% of the pot on the turn with a gutshot you'd take it anyway, because of other factors like implied odds whereas if you were calling a 40% bet you clearly would not.
If you want to argue over the 2% at 100nl or something like that then be my guest, but thats dumb imo.
Its a guestimate, treat it as such. and its not 'dumb'

Greedo017

07-31-2006, 02:13 AM

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bigspenda, If there is a call you'd make with a 9.5% chance of hitting but not with an 8.5% chance, you're not doing it right. I'd honestly say, the time you waste punching in on a calculator to find an exact % probably loses you more money because you're not spending that time thinking about what the best play is.

i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch

bigspenda73

07-31-2006, 02:55 AM

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The time I spend determining correct plays is well spent. Although you're right, if I were laying 12.5 to 1 make my hand and only getting 11.5 to 1 pot odds I would be a profitable poker player. Oh wait, I wouldn't. You can insert you line about implied odds here...

The best way to start this game is to be rooted in the math. From there you can play around a bit, but for god's sake, it's not rocket science, stop looking for an easy way out.

One final note, telling ppl its ok to play poorly should be the last thing this site is all about. This person wanted to know in the 4 and 2 rule was right. I showed it was not. It may not be way off, and my judgement may have been too harsh, but it is not correct. I leave no gray area. It is either yes or no, and in this case it was NO.

Miffed22001

07-31-2006, 03:33 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

im gona say it and get into trouble, but sir you are an idiot.

bigspenda73

07-31-2006, 03:38 AM

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I prefer donkey, haven't heard idiot before, it's a new one to add to the list.

dsmrolla06

07-31-2006, 03:42 AM

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i must agree with miffed. 1% differences arent going to matter when making a call. And no, i dont beleive you do need to be deeply rooted in the math. If all you could do was this 4-2 rule and count outs, you could still be a winning player. So you acknowledge your a 'donkey' yet you still redicule players that arent 100% accurate on their math? id love to hear you say this to a group of pros.

swiggidy

07-31-2006, 04:00 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I prefer donkey, haven't heard idiot before, it's a new one to add to the list.

Look, he took the harsh critisism and moved on. No nead to turn this in to a flame war (which typically would have already happened).

Have a llama:

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mb2447

07-31-2006, 04:31 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

Wait a second... At what school can you get a major in calculus?

Damn you beat me to that...

also, accounting is not a major.

AWOL.

Greedo017

07-31-2006, 04:43 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedo017

bigspenda, If there is a call you'd make with a 9.5% chance of hitting but not with an 8.5% chance, you're not doing it right.

QFT

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DaNutsInYoEye

07-31-2006, 04:54 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Oh, and its not a horrible rule? Give me the odds for a gutshot, they are not 8% with one card to come, more like just under 10%.

I majored in Zoology as an undegrad, not calculus or any other branch of mathematics so please bear with me and pardon my stupidity.

I calculate the odds of catching a gutshot with one card to come as 4/46 = 8.695%. Unless I am mistaken, 8.7% is not just under 10%, but actually closer to 8%.

Again, I wasn't a math major so I might have mistakenly taken the wrong derivative or accidentally included a hanging participle when I worked it out. If you could please explain how the odds are actually closer to 10%, a donk like me would be forever greatful.

P.S. Welcome to the boards asshole.

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Lukie

07-31-2006, 04:57 AM

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dnuts,

Can you give me some advice on how I can hit sets more often? They are a lot of fun to play but no matter what I do, I just can't seem to EVER hit them. Any advice would be appreciated.

thanks,

Lukie

jackvance

07-31-2006, 05:22 AM

#28 (permalink)

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It's not like you can accurately predict how often someone is gonna fold, exact hand ranges, just how much your implied odds are, etc.. so a 1% margin on pot odds really doesn't matter all that much.

Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity

DaNutsInYoEye

07-31-2006, 05:31 AM

#29 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

Quit being on ten 2/4 tables every time I try to start a session. If you do that I guarantee you'll hit sets at least 4x your current rate.

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Lukie

07-31-2006, 05:35 AM

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bigspenda73

07-31-2006, 05:45 AM

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Actually, 9.09 is closer to 10 than it is to 8, and thats the worst way you can figure out a gutshot draw. Most would figure it this way, 4/42 for 9.5%. If I need to convert this to any other language just ask, I would be more than happy to.

Odds would be good/bad. Not good/total
-not sure if I can make this any clearer...

This figures the odds of a helpful card coming against a non-helpful card coming. Maybe this is my fault, this whole argument was started over 1.5%. But I was just trying to prove the point that poker is a bigger game than 4 times your outs after the flop. Your last post has proven however that 1 or 2 percent does matter, as you seemed to flip out over .5 of a percent I feel vindicated in my previous posts. So which one is it Nuts? Does 1% matter or doesn't it? If you could please respond b/c I fear you have confused the entire board with mixed messgaes.

Also, asshole is a bit harsh, I can take idiot but do not expect me to take being called an asshole lightly. After I was bombarded for my opinion on a forum I thought I took it well, however, asshole was certainly unecessary. If you would like a place for open expression maybe we need to leave the namecalling at home, or in the third grade, either way, this isn't the place for it.

One final note, is anyone from the states? You mean to tell me you do not think schools offer degrees in either accounting or calculus? I graduated from Valparaiso double majoring in Accounting and Mathematics Education with a focus on Calculus.

So there ya have it, my last post. It seems most of you are in your own little boys clubs with you inside jokes and utter defense of each other comments. I will thank the guys in the limit hold'em section as they have been unbiased and helpful. As to the rest of you, play well.

midas06

07-31-2006, 05:51 AM

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is this actually an argument over 1%?

dsmrolla06

07-31-2006, 06:58 AM

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i think it started because anyone who uses the 4 2 rule doesnt understand the game well enough, and you need to know the odds for all outs done the the thousandth of percentage.

midas06

07-31-2006, 07:11 AM

#34 (permalink)

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dammit I knew I was missing something.

Lukie

07-31-2006, 07:25 AM

#35 (permalink)

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bigspenda,

Hidden in your very harsh sounding ramblings, it seems like you actually stumbed onto a few reasonable points (of which the whole 1% mattering in a real hand is not one of).

But it absolutely defies logic and common sense that somebody who claims to have the mathematic education that you do still doesn't understand the difference between fractions and odds.

Quote:

4/42 is not what we are looking for.
4/46 is. You may want to recalculate this, for whatever it's worth (not much).

Although I would like you to convert it to proper mathematic language, if possible. Because it's obvious you have no idea what you're talking about.

Odds would be good:bad, I'd expect someone who graduated with degrees in calculus and accounting to know this?? wtf??

I'm done. Not worth my time.

DaNutsInYoEye

07-31-2006, 11:12 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Most would figure it this way, 4/42 for 9.5%. If I need to convert this to any other language just ask, I would be more than happy to.

Swahili please. It's just not making sense to me in English.

4 cards help you. 42 cards do not. 4 + 42 = 46. 4/46 = 8.7%

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swiggidy

07-31-2006, 12:04 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mb2447

also, accounting is not a major.

O RLY.

You can get a master's at Ohio State.

Quote:

Also, asshole is a bit harsh, I can take idiot but do not expect me to take being called an asshole lightly. After I was bombarded for my opinion on a forum I thought I took it well, however, asshole was certainly unecessary. If you would like a place for open expression maybe we need to leave the namecalling at home, or in the third grade, either way, this isn't the place for it.

QFT. There is no need for name calling.

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arkana

07-31-2006, 12:46 PM

#38 (permalink)

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So bigspenda are you saying you calculate exact odds\percentage in your head with more than one card to come? Someone pushes all in on the flop and you have a gutshot + flushdraw which gives you 12 outs and you solve this equation (1-(35/47*34/46)) in your head? Im guessing you dont multitable then?

The 4 and 2 rule is a pretty good approximation of your odds (especially when you correct for outs more than 8) and is very useful when you have to calculate odds on the spot.

jyms

07-31-2006, 01:03 PM

#39 (permalink)

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Phil Gordon uses the 4+2 rule as talked about in the OP's thread and

Is all I got to say

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bigspenda73

07-31-2006, 02:04 PM

#40 (permalink)

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OK, b/c of all the misinformation everyone has given I will now clear it up. This comes directly from the man himself in multiple books. The guru, Sklansky says with 4 outs and 1 card to come the odds one is laying it 10.5 to 1, or 42 to 4 or 9.5%

Miffed22001

07-31-2006, 02:13 PM

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i dont think ive ever done this outside commune but

arkana

07-31-2006, 02:14 PM

#42 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

42:4 = 4/46 = 8.69%, your odds are right but your conversion to a percentage is wrong.

swiggidy

07-31-2006, 02:59 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Did you read any other posts?

This thread is amazing (Fundamental Theorem anyone?).

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mcatdog

07-31-2006, 03:03 PM

#44 (permalink)

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he should have majored in probability instead of calculus

swiggidy

07-31-2006, 03:27 PM

#45 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mcatdog

he should have majored in odds instead of calculus

FYP

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DaNutsInYoEye

08-01-2006, 02:47 AM

#46 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

Phil Gordon uses the 4+2 rule as talked about in the OP's thread and

Is all I got to say

Too bad Phil Gordon has never won a WSOP bracelet.

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midas06

08-01-2006, 03:13 AM

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he's made a dvd though.

jyms

08-01-2006, 04:06 AM

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I know but I couldn't find any cool WPT stuff in a short time. Wasn't sure anyone would notice.

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swiggidy

08-01-2006, 12:05 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

I know but I couldn't find any cool WPT stuff in a short time. Wasn't sure anyone would notice.

On a web forum where every tiny mistake is ruthlessly torn to shreds. That's a mistake sir.

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jyms

08-01-2006, 12:15 PM

#50 (permalink)

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Your right. I'm wrong.

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KoRnholio	05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... more at Poker Blogs »

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