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spoonitnow
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10-14-2008, 12:57 AM
Post subject: The 30/15/10 Rule
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Muzzard coined the following bit of information the "30/15/10 Rule" during one of our coaching sessions dealing with blind attack and defense.
Whenever you steal the blinds in the SB (raising to 4x), if the BB continues with 30% or less of his starting hands, then you at least break even just from fold equity, assuming you're neutral EV post-flop.
Whenever you steal the blinds in the BU (raising to 4x), if the SB and BB continue with 15% or less of their starting hands each, then you at least break even just from fold equity, assuming you're neutral EV post-flop.
Whenever you steal the blinds in the CO (raising to 4x), if the BU and SB and BB continue with 10% or less of their starting hands each, then you at least break even just from fold equity, assuming you're neutral EV post-flop.
And that's the 30/15/10 Rule.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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wellrounded08
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ...Good Question........Where am I?
Posts: 366
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For some of us who don't fully understand what you mean by "Assuming you are neutral EV post-flop"
can you elabirate?
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wellrounded08
For some of us who don't fully understand what you mean by "Assuming you are neutral EV post-flop"
can you elabirate?
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Assuming you open fold every time you see a flop regardless of what it is or what your cards are. That is, no +EV or -EV post-flop.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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jolub
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Michigan, USA
Posts: 80
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So how do you defend againist some one who is trying this on you?
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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continue with more than that range?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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For one thing stop thinking of it as defence. Theres nothing to defend, the blinds are the price you pay to play. Instead the question is "how should I adjust to a player opening a wide range IP, when I'm getting a good price OOP?".
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Just playing to improve.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JKDS
continue with more than that range?
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WAY too simplistic. For both you and jolub, notice there was nothing in Spoons OP about ranges. You could have someone raising only 5% of hands from the SB and he STILL only needs you to call 30% or less and its a profitable raise even if he folds postflop (which obviously he wont). Playing a range greater than 30% of hands to a 5% openning range is obviously not a good plan.
Lol, even I made the assumption of a wide range in my last response  . Anyway, how you play v's someone in a blind v blind situation depends on their ranges.
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Just playing to improve.
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wellrounded08
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ...Good Question........Where am I?
Posts: 366
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Umm, if we're talking micro's......Just fold? really, no big deal. I say call hands that are ahead of villains range, raise hands that are obvious raises.
The reason being, it's micro stakes, why get a bunch of money in OOP?
That's my fishy opinion.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wellrounded08
why get a bunch of money in OOP?
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Wheee!!! You win a 
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Just playing to improve.
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wellrounded08
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ...Good Question........Where am I?
Posts: 366
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
Quote:
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Originally Posted by wellrounded08
why get a bunch of money in OOP?
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Wheee!!! You win a |
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Umm BB should continue with more hands than SB
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yourfather
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: In your fridge
Posts: 603
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Not trying to argue what might just be semantics, but wouldn't open folding post flop be neg EV? And I understand that its hypothetical.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by yourfather
Not trying to argue what might just be semantics, but wouldn't open folding post flop be neg EV? And I understand that its hypothetical.
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When your deciding whether to raise or call and what is most +EV folding is always 0EV as you can't lose any money by folding.
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yourfather
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: In your fridge
Posts: 603
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Muzzard
Quote:
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Originally Posted by yourfather
Not trying to argue what might just be semantics, but wouldn't open folding post flop be neg EV? And I understand that its hypothetical.
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When your deciding whether to raise or call and what is most +EV folding is always 0EV as you can't lose any money by folding. |
Surely folding the nuts is -EV
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by yourfather
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Muzzard
Quote:
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Originally Posted by yourfather
Not trying to argue what might just be semantics, but wouldn't open folding post flop be neg EV? And I understand that its hypothetical.
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When your deciding whether to raise or call and what is most +EV folding is always 0EV as you can't lose any money by folding. |
Surely folding the nuts is -EV |
You can't LOSE MONEY BY FOLDING
whatever money you had in your stack you still have
it's EXACTLY 0 EV to fold
it's sometimes EV+ to bet with the nuts
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wellrounded08
Umm, if we're talking micro's......Just fold? really, no big deal. I say call hands that are ahead of villains range, raise hands that are obvious raises.
The reason being, it's micro stakes, why get a bunch of money in OOP?
That's my fishy opinion.
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Congrats on your gold star but if we can get villain to fold hands ahead of our range then we get two gold stars.
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by yourfather
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Muzzard
Quote:
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Originally Posted by yourfather
Not trying to argue what might just be semantics, but wouldn't open folding post flop be neg EV? And I understand that its hypothetical.
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When your deciding whether to raise or call and what is most +EV folding is always 0EV as you can't lose any money by folding. |
Surely folding the nuts is -EV |
You can't LOSE MONEY BY FOLDING
whatever money you had in your stack you still have
it's EXACTLY 0 EV to fold
it's sometimes EV+ to bet with the nuts |
right.
Yourfather - it's LESS EV than continuing with the nuts but still not -EV
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by yourfather
Not trying to argue what might just be semantics, but wouldn't open folding post flop be neg EV? And I understand that its hypothetical.
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It's neutral EV, or 0 EV, no matter what cards you hold because you don't lose money doing it. If you hold the nuts, Villain goes all-in and it's $50 to call in a pot of $1000, the EV of calling is +$1000 and the EV of folding is $0.
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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So the moral of the story to my somewhat limited mental capacity...
- Open up ATS, esp vs any vils with fold-to-steal up to the % discussed, and vry low 3-bet vs. steal
- Tighten up c-bet when called as a) these folks are not-folding with the up-end of their range and b) c-betting poorly is what will f-k the EV of these steals up...
is this close? 
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Adjust to villains, but I make a steady stream of profit from:
1. People who combine stealing too much and c-betting too much.
2. People who "defend their blinds" by 3-bet bluffing too much and allowing me to play big pots in position.
However it depends. Some people "defend" by calling wide and then c/f'ing too much. Some people will call wide and donk bet if they hit. Some people will call too wide and donkbet if they miss. Some people will bet all turns if you raise p/f and check behind flop (or if you're in SB and they're in BB they bet if you check flop). Work out what your opponent is doing wrong and make $s from them.
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Just playing to improve.
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
Adjust to villains, but I make a steady stream of profit from:
1. People who combine stealing too much and c-betting too much.
2. People who "defend their blinds" by 3-bet bluffing too much and allowing me to play big pots in position.
However it depends. Some people "defend" by calling wide and then c/f'ing too much. Some people will call wide and donk bet if they hit. Some people will call too wide and donkbet if they miss. Some people will bet all turns if you raise p/f and check behind flop (or if you're in SB and they're in BB they bet if you check flop). Work out what your opponent is doing wrong and make $s from them.
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Cliff notes version...
Some people will do something and then something else. Get reads. Get paid. 
Did I miss anything?
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
Adjust to villains, but I make a steady stream of profit from:
1. People who combine stealing too much and c-betting too much.
2. People who "defend their blinds" by 3-bet bluffing too much and allowing me to play big pots in position.
However it depends. Some people "defend" by calling wide and then c/f'ing too much. Some people will call wide and donk bet if they hit. Some people will call too wide and donkbet if they miss. Some people will bet all turns if you raise p/f and check behind flop (or if you're in SB and they're in BB they bet if you check flop). Work out what your opponent is doing wrong and make $s from them.
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In your opinion, is 15% of starting hands too much? If so, explain why.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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I guess the other side of that coin, is work out if your opponent is playing well v's you and stop playing into their game. I've had guys with like 70% steal from SB when I'm in BB and I constantly take their $s through a variety of means, and yet every time its folded to them they keep on trying to steal and giving me more money. A complete failure to adjust.
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Just playing to improve.
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
I've had guys with like 70% steal from SB when I'm in BB and I constantly take their $s through a variety of means, and yet every time its folded to them they keep on trying to steal and giving me more money.
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Thank you for maintaining my anonymity in the aforementioned example... 
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Arg I got no reply. Arg.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Sorry, missed your reply while I was doing a further reply of my own. You're referring to 3-bet bluffing? Its more of a ratio thing than an amount thing, but a lot of TAG-fish seem to have a really skewed 3-bet bluff ration. Minimum 2:1 bluff:value and often much higher. They also skew their 3-bets to much more OOP than IP. So a guy with 7% 3-bet might be 3-betting 15% from the blinds, but its doubtful he's 3-betting even 5% for value (they'll tend just to call with the lower end of their value range). So you have a guy with over 2/3 of his range being bluffs allowing you to play a big pot IP against him. Then since most TAG-fish cant play postflop, they either c-bet 100% OOP, or they check all their air, either way our decisions are pretty easy, because we positionpwn them.
Something like a 7% value 7% bluff range would be much harder to play against (other than playing your own range fairly straightfoward), so its not so much the % of hands they 3-bet, but what their range is made up of.
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Just playing to improve.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Btw, I havnt done any maths behind that, its just adjustments/thoughts I've come up with while playing these guys. Potentially you could do some maths and find I'm wrong, or come up with better options. I'm also only looking at 6-max. I dont know if ranges are as skewed in FR.
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Just playing to improve.
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