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2NL - AA UTG+1 vs long term winning super nit on the button

  
 
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daviddem
Old 03-04-2010, 10:49 PM     Post subject: 2NL - AA UTG+1 vs long term winning super nit on the button #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 8.5/0/0.3 over 47 hands and is classified as very tight and passive on pokertableratings. He is winning at 3bb/100 over 100000+ hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (UTG+1) ($2.43)
MP1 ($2.82)
MP2 ($2.94)
MP3 ($1.38)
CO ($1.91)
Villain (Button) ($2)
SB ($1.24)
BB ($1.46)
UTG ($2.77)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, A
1 fold, Hero bets $0.08, MP1 calls $0.08, 3 folds, Villain calls $0.08, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.27) 3, 4, K (3 players)
Hero bets $0.18, 1 fold, Villain calls $0.18

Turn: ($0.63) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, Villain raises to $1.52

Preflop he calls on the button, I'd put him on AJ+, KJ+, 22+. I don't exclude AA, KK and QQ given his stats.

I cbet the flop to get value from his kings. He calls. KK,44-33,AKs,KJs+,AKo,KJo+

With the Jd on the turn, I now realize that I have only 50% equity against his range, so maybe I should not have bet.

After his raise, there is reason to think we are crushed. What's your play?

Another case that shows how bad 100bb stacks are for playing overpairs or top pair hands... Maybe I should become a short stacker...
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Donachello
Old 03-04-2010, 11:09 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Fold and feel pretty good about it. Betting or not betting is debatable I guess just cause of how small his range is. I think I would take the same line though. Definite fold in my book though.
[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

Problem officer...?
 
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dranger7070
Old 03-04-2010, 11:38 PM #3 (permalink)  
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It's a fold, and a pretty clear one iyam. He's a nit, he called PF. These two things indicate to me a set about 75%+ of the time. Other times, he's going to have KJ, combo draws, pair + draws, etc. He's not going to be raising a lot of hands that we're ahead of. MAYBE AK, but other than that you're wtfcrushed.
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speedcake
Old 03-05-2010, 12:31 AM #4 (permalink)  
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what is a long term super winning 2nl nit
your banner burned here
 
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rpm
Old 03-05-2010, 01:06 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 i agree with dranger, except i doubt this guy is even raising AK. not after you bet the turn. i'd probably prefer checking the turn against this guy because i think you're more likely to get river value than if you flop/turn barrel. the only hands in his PF calling range that you get value from betting the turn are KQ,AK.
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littleogre
Old 03-05-2010, 12:05 PM #6 (permalink)  

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 classic set line
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daviddem
Old 03-05-2010, 12:14 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Yeah, I spewed shoved here. At the time I played the hand, my reads were not as clear as I presented here, but still, I should sit on my hands before hitting that max button...

Seen so many silly plays at 2NL though, it's hard to fold AA...
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littleogre
Old 03-05-2010, 12:57 PM #8 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by rpm View Post
i agree with dranger, except i doubt this guy is even raising AK. not after you bet the turn. i'd probably prefer checking the turn because against this guy because i think you're more likely to get river value than if you flop/turn barrel. the only hands in his PF calling range that you get value from betting the turn are KQ,AK.
Im not even sure Kqo is part of his range. One he calls our flop bet i put villain on AK or a set. I greatly discount AA and KK most nits are gonna reraise us pre-flop with those hands. So i say his range seeing the flop is 22-qq AKs-ATs Ako-AQo Kqs-KTs and qjs.


Once he call our flop bet he has either AK or 33 or 44 he has a 16 percent chance of having 13.5 percent chance of having AK and around a 7 percent chance of having a set so his range is weighted signifiganty to tptk. As far as betting or checking the turn goes i'm not sure if one is really better then the other.
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surviva316
Old 03-05-2010, 05:09 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 ^^^^^ why would he flat PF with KQ, only to fold to a cbet on the dryest K-high board ever seen by man?
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atlantafalcons0
Old 03-05-2010, 07:39 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
Villain is 8.5/0/0.3 over 47 hands and is classified as very tight and passive on pokertableratings. He is winning at 3bb/100 over 100000+ hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (UTG+1) ($2.43)
MP1 ($2.82)
MP2 ($2.94)
MP3 ($1.38)
CO ($1.91)
Villain (Button) ($2)
SB ($1.24)
BB ($1.46)
UTG ($2.77)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, A
1 fold, Hero bets $0.08, MP1 calls $0.08, 3 folds, Villain calls $0.08, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.27) 3, 4, K (3 players)
Hero bets $0.18, 1 fold, Villain calls $0.18

Turn: ($0.63) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, Villain raises to $1.52

Preflop he calls on the button, I'd put him on AJ+, KJ+, 22+. I don't exclude AA, KK and QQ given his stats.

I cbet the flop to get value from his kings. He calls. KK,44-33,AKs,KJs+,AKo,KJo+

With the Jd on the turn, I now realize that I have only 50% equity against his range, so maybe I should not have bet.

After his raise, there is reason to think we are crushed. What's your play?

Another case that shows how bad 100bb stacks are for playing overpairs or top pair hands... Maybe I should become a short stacker...
I would have just shoved the flop.

He probably had king jack and hit two pair.

I probably would have raised just a little more preflop but that's just me.
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eugmac
Old 03-05-2010, 08:06 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atlantafalcons0 View Post
I would have just shoved the flop.
... why?
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spoonitnow
Old 03-05-2010, 08:28 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 What's the worst hand he raises? [/thread]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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atlantafalcons0
Old 03-05-2010, 08:31 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eugmac View Post
... why?
Because he had pocket jacks.

LOL
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jaytoi
Old 03-05-2010, 11:58 PM #14 (permalink)  
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/Hijack

A long term winning super nit? We need a list of these kind of guys so we can sit to the right of them and make max blindzz.

one I know of at 2NL is BAD KOOL?
Im ready this time.
 
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littleogre
Old 03-06-2010, 12:01 AM #15 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
^^^^^ why would he flat PF with KQ, only to fold to a cbet on the dryest K-high board ever seen by man?
cause most nits i know don't call raises with any less then TPTK . Even if he does have KQ it doesn't really change our decision or at least
it shouldn't.
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daviddem
Old 03-06-2010, 06:54 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
What's the worst hand he raises? [/thread]
Yes, that is exactly what it comes down to. Assuming he is a sensible villain, if he had TPTK, I say he would have raised the flop. It would not make sense that he raises the turn with AK if he did not raise the flop. Most likely same if he had KQ: if he does not raise the flop, then it doesn't make sense to raise the turn.

With his line, KJ kinda makes sense, assuming that it is part of his preflop range (and if it is, it is most likely the bottom of it). Sets also make sense: I think it is OK to slowplay them on such a dry board.

So in retrospect, shoving over was a clear mistake. Betting the turn is more debatable, but if betting it is, I think we should have bet smaller (about half pot to 2/3rd pot), just enough to price possible draws and not more than that. Then it is easier to get away from the hand (avoid being pot commited with just a pair).
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