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Carroters
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02-07-2010, 05:48 PM
Post subject: 25NL, A spot where I want to be an uber nit with KK.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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UTG is 53/24 over 14 hands. MP is 19/13 and is yet to 3 bet over 20 hands.
This 3-bet is celarly never a bluff and could even be a range as tight as [QQ-AA AK.] The probolem is that a cold 4-bet here looks insanely strong and will likelt fold out everything but AA and KK which I have terrible equity vs. I decided to flat for this reason.
Now the flop is where I just wanna make an extremely nitty fold. I feel like there are exactly 2 hands he can commonly have here once he raises this lead on this board multiway - AA and QQ. AA seems more likely as someplayers don't 3-bet QQ vs utg opens much although I think vs this guy anyone should be. How abusrdly nitty is this fold?
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($38.30)
Button ($22)
Hero (SB) ($37.25)
BB ($27.10)
UTG ($14.90)
MP ($25)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K , K
UTG bets $0.75, MP raises $2.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.15, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.50
Flop: ($7) 8, 6, 10 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1, MP raises $4, Hero folds, 1 fold
Total pot: $9
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Ok this looks fucking retarded now, I guess we should call flop at least, really not too happy about it though.
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Yeah I can agree with your 3bet call preflop. Postflop blah call but expect him to go all the way a lot which becomes gay.
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!Luck
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Under a bridge
Posts: 1,367
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This is bad. You can raise all in preflop. Or at least on the flop.
The thing is if you can't go all in with overs on this board then you are playing kk for set value only and for that you have no odds, so you should fold pre?
!luck
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eragotte
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 504
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i hate all of it, i 4bet pre and on the flop
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kiwiMark
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Nu Zuland bru
Posts: 939
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Quote:
and is yet to 3 bet over 20 hands.
This 3-bet is celarly never a bluff and could even be a range as tight as [QQ-AA AK.]
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Unlikely to be a bluff, but I think assigning such a tight range based on 20 hands is silly. It just seems like you're calling a 3bet OOP and hoping to see an A on the flop so you can feel justified in folding.
On the flop, I wouldn't be surprised if he's raising his entire range here. It's a $1 donkbet into $7, my standard response to small donkbets is always to raise them, they fold a billion percent of the time.
I dunno, straight up, you're better at this than I am, but I think you're reading way too far into a twenty hand sample to make this kinda cautious play.
Discussion, ho!
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by !Luck
This is bad. You can raise all in preflop. Or at least on the flop.
The thing is if you can't go all in with overs on this board then you are playing kk for set value only and for that you have no odds, so you should fold pre?
!luck
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We aren't playing for set value nor raise raise raise allin value.
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!Luck
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Under a bridge
Posts: 1,367
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On the flop there are some draws that will call you, which is why you shove it.
Note the low SPR.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Flatting also keeps the fish in the pot, which is really great, and keeps MP's range wide (which is wider than you think it is). As played, you should probably be 3-betting the flop and getting it in. Calling the flop is pretty bad.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,518
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Calling the flop is pretty bad.
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It's better than folding!
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Belt
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Istanbul
Posts: 95
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Well I wouldn't consider his pre-flop 3bet range that tight. After all he is isolating a 53/24 guy. His range must be at least 88+, KJs+, AJs+, AQo+ I assume. And I think he would raise this retarded 1/7 pot lead at least all the pairs in his range. He may raise with his draws too but I can't see many draws in his range since your Kh blocks most of them.
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rpm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: learnin'
Posts: 2,035
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Belt
After all he is isolating a 53/24 guy. His range must be at least 88+, KJs+, AJs+, AQo+ I assume. And I think he would raise this retarded 1/7 pot lead at least all the pairs in his range. He may raise with his draws too but I can't see many draws in his range since your Kh blocks most of them.
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good point. i think we can 3bet and get it in on this flop. had he 3bet a 11/9 nit's UTG open i would consider folding on the flop. as has been said, those stupid flop leads are made to be raised. i can see him doing that with almost all of his preflop 3b range.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Calling the flop is pretty bad.
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It's better than folding! |
Haha true.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Shifubowa
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 193
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kiwiMark
assigning such a tight range based on 20 hands is silly.
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QFT. Players can run insanely hot/cold over small samples. I do not refer to my 3b% in my HUD until my sample is large enough to be reasonably accurate and/or I have seen some showdowns. It only takes a small sample and a run of cards for a nit to look like a LAG or a LAG to look like a nit.
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clvacva
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 200
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what belt said.
But I don't think he is 3betting that light
might just be JJ+,AQ+
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Quote:
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Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Calling the flop is pretty bad.
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It's better than folding! |
Haha true. |
so...what you're saying is that...we should...........idk, i don't follow
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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killerkebab
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 149
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by surviva316
Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Quote:
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Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Calling the flop is pretty bad.
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It's better than folding! |
Haha true. |
so...what you're saying is that...we should...........idk, i don't follow |
He's saying we should raise, call, or fold. In descending order of preference. He's also saying one of these options beats the hell out of the other two.
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rpm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: learnin'
Posts: 2,035
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Board: 5d 7h Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.145% 61.48% 01.67% 109554 2970.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 36.855% 35.19% 01.67% 62706 2970.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
because he iso'd a fish i'm thinking his pf value range is TT+, and your hand is very under-repped. i like raising. even if the raiser is good enough to fold JJ or QQ to your c/r. you might get the fish in there with a ton of top pair, pair/gutterball hands, flush draws. and if the original raiser stacks off with all overpairs:
Board: 5d 7h Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.262% 52.99% 02.27% 69246 2970.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 44.738% 42.47% 02.27% 55494 2970.00 { TT+ }
you make a little bit of theoretical money there too 
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rpm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: learnin'
Posts: 2,035
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btw i know thats not the exact board, thats just a quick stove i did to check your equity against TT+ after noting the flop texture (T high, all cards between 5-T)
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pccarballo
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Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 11
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I would 4bet the hand preflop and be happy putting it all in the middle
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killerkebab
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 149
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pccarballo
I would 4bet the hand preflop and be happy putting it all in the middle
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The 3bet is almost certainly not a bluff and as such villains range after 3betting a UTG open is probably something like {QQ+,AK}
By 4betting, we are giving our villain a chance to play QQ and AK correctly (that is, by folding) and a chance to play AA correctly (by shoving - since you're calling every time). We're not forcing him to make any kind of mistake.
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