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25nl - so are we folding the turn or the river?

  
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 11-13-2009, 10:51 PM     Post subject: 25nl - so are we folding the turn or the river? #1 (permalink)  
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 16/9 over 1k, we have no history together at all. He has like a 53% flop cbet, 30% ATS, fwiw I've never caught him out of line anywhere, but I guess that could have gone unoticed.

in 22 attempts to check raise the turn, he's done it once...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($25)
UTG ($50.65)
UTG+1 ($27.05)
MP1 ($11.85)
MP2 ($15)
CO ($5.20)
Hero (Button) ($33.05)
SB ($26)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
UTG bets $0.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 4, 9, 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $1, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($3.85) 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.75, UTG raises to $8, Hero calls $5.25

River: ($19.85) K (2 players)
UTG bets $40.90 (All-In) Hero snapfolds right? 99 = 3 combos, 55 = 3 combos, TT = 3 combos, KK = 3 combos, AA = 6 combos...looks like sets outweigh him turning aces into a bluff, tbh I doubt any 'standard tags' (espcially ones on the weak side) are playing overpairs like this. And well, he doesn't really have much he can bluff with in his range :/. I tank/called the turn fwiw but I'm thinking I should have folded there. Would you fold the turn?
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MuddyWicket
Old 11-14-2009, 08:26 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I think he has 99/TT. Folding the turn is the last thing i do given the odds. I fold the river, write villains name and then spend half an hour going through that 1K of hands looking at his biggest pots to see what he turns up with and make some notes.

I doubt he has 44/55 in his range and its the wierdest line I would expect from a 16/9 with AA/KK utg- 3x pfr, weak cbet, check raise then shove.

You can only call $23 on the river which is near potsized. In some ways this looks like fps with AK. I'm not sure you can fold the river, set + pot sized call generally equals easy call. The other thing is that without the check raise on the turn the pot would have been probably about $10 on the river.
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spoonitnow
Old 11-14-2009, 12:03 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 There's no reasonable range that you have a -EV call against on the river.
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Micro2Macro
Old 11-14-2009, 08:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Thanks for the response guys, and Muddy great suggestion about going through villains hands in my databse after...something I'll need to implement before I'm back at 100nl I imagine.
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bigspenda73
Old 11-14-2009, 09:36 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Hoopy
Old 11-15-2009, 11:02 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 We need to win around 35% of the time if we call the river right? I call but his line is pretty unusual; spazzing out with AA maybe.
 
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hangchiong
Old 11-16-2009, 10:17 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Such a weird line from villain.I might be a spewtard,so im going arrrrinnnnn on the turn.

Looking at it,if u put villain on a very tight range on turn(99/TT)-obvious fold!I dont see how villain could play it so badly with KK here!
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rpm
Old 11-17-2009, 03:02 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 i don't think i'm ever folding the turn. he probably expects you to bet all of your range after he cbets flop OOP then checks the turn so i think he c/r's a polarised range of missed pretty cards, overpairs, and sets.

i honestly don't see this river line being taken with anything that you beat, unless he's bad enough to do it with AA/AK. without reads indicating he is tilted or will play AA/AK like this, i fold on the river.
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