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25NL...playing back at villain with air

  
 
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fjuanl
Old 02-15-2009, 07:43 AM     Post subject: 25NL...playing back at villain with air #1 (permalink)  
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 BTN had just joined recently, we have no history.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($7.70)
BB ($15)
UTG ($40.05)
MP1 ($20.60)
MP2 ($4.85)
Hero (CO) ($25.40)
Button ($23.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 10, J
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, Button calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 3, K, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, Button raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $8.50
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Old 02-15-2009, 09:12 AM #2 (permalink)  
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so you have no history
you're playing full ring
and you're 3betting the flop as a complete bluff
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bigspenda73
Old 02-15-2009, 09:30 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 yea this isn't all that bad from a theory standpoint as his value-raising range on the flop is very narrow and there is a possibility he may even fold some if it (i.e. KJ/KQ). Unfortunately what I've found is at these lower limits players typically have the hands they're representing, which may make this somewhat -EV but I don't hate it.

I'd probably fold way more often than not but I'm not going to sit here and act like I don't do this from time to time. I would probably make it $7.50.
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Old 02-15-2009, 09:40 AM #4 (permalink)  
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from a theory perspective I'd like it a lot more if he was the kind of player who attacked dry flops, you know what I mean?
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bigspenda73
Old 02-15-2009, 09:50 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 It's not that someone "attacks" dry flops, it's just that the ratio of stack-off hands:air is weighted more towards air on these types of boards vs. more draw-heavy flop textures.
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Old 02-15-2009, 11:51 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
It's not that someone "attacks" dry flops, it's just that the ratio of stack-off hands:air is weighted more towards air on these types of boards vs. more draw-heavy flop textures.
Postflop Analysis with a board of Kc 3d 6h

With known hole cards of Js Tc

All cards Total Combos = 133

88 - 66, AJs - A5s, AQo - ATo, KQs - K9s, KQo - KTo,
QJs - Q9s, QJo - QTo, JTs,

* Top Pair Combos = 33/133 Percent =24.81%
* Two Pair Combos = 0/133 Percent =0%
* Trips/Set Combos = 3/133 Percent =2.26%


Analysis by Stoxpoker Combo. Available only at Stoxpoker.com


So let's say that if he has top pair he's just calling your 3b
I highly doubt that even a hand like K9 is just going to raise and fold to a 3b since it's not a shove
we're putting in $7.25 to win $7.10 so we have to succeed something like 50% of the time with our bluff
he would have to be raising us on this flop also around one half of the time for him not to have top pair+ half of the time

or we would have barrel him off his top pair on the turn
I just don't think we can make the assumption that he will fold a weak top pair or will be bluffing half of the time
I would instead make the assumption that he's a donk unless proven otherwise and put the pressure on in obvious spots where he doesn't have anything
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oskar
Old 02-15-2009, 01:49 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Without history I wouldn't do it, but I would be tempted.
Simply because the average 25NL FR villain does not play back a lot. I wouldn't naturally assume that he would raise here very wide just because I would do it
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Old 02-15-2009, 01:53 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 I don't really like it for a few reasons.

1) No history. Without history, I generally assume most players fit the mold of relatively passive players.

2) Relatively little equity against his calling range. If I was going to do this I would much rather have like 75 or Ax. When he calls this we really have little chance of winning the pot, and will likely be check/folding most turns.'

3) As spenda said, his value range is likely narrow, and he could potentially fold some of those hands. However, if this how you would play sets, AK, KQ, AA, etc? If not then your range is going to be weighted towards air as well.
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Old 02-15-2009, 04:50 PM #9 (permalink)  
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i personally wouldn't feel comfortable making this kind of sophisticated play at this level and even more so vs an unknown...

i might make this kinda play against another TAG that i know plays with me regularly... these players are more likely to fold a much wider range of hands that beat you already including AK...
 
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Old 02-15-2009, 05:23 PM #10 (permalink)  
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If he was just betting when you check, sure, but you bet and he raised. Most lower limit players are never bluffing here.
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Carroters
Old 02-15-2009, 06:44 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 I think at 25NL there's just no reason to ever do this against an unknown. Players here are bad enough to pay you off on flops like these with K8 suited when you have AK. Obviously they're also bad enough to raise the flop and get it in vs your 3 bet with K8 suited.

FR is probably less spewy than the 6 max I play but even so, I'd save these plays for when I have a bit of equity in the hand because the stuff they'll stack off with is insane.

 
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kmind
Old 02-15-2009, 07:13 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
I don't really like it for a few reasons.

1) No history. Without history, I generally assume most players fit the mold of relatively passive players.

2) Relatively little equity against his calling range. If I was going to do this I would much rather have like 75 or Ax. When he calls this we really have little chance of winning the pot, and will likely be check/folding most turns.'

3) As spenda said, his value range is likely narrow, and he could potentially fold some of those hands. However, if this how you would play sets, AK, KQ, AA, etc? If not then your range is going to be weighted towards air as well.
This

and yeah I admit to falling victim to this as well, but if I did raise it'd be smaller.
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Jack Sawyer
Old 02-15-2009, 09:04 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fjuanl
25NL...playing back at villain with air
stop right there, this is like demolishing a house using a magnetar.

no need to get fancy at 25NL
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fjuanl
Old 02-15-2009, 10:21 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 lol thanks guys, definetly agree.

this seems kinda bad at whatever limit bc as someone pointed out my 4bet range is heavily air. its a board where I'd definetly flat the 3bet with AA/AK/KK sets etc. eventually the regulars will be thinking on that level and own me

ugh its so boring playing full ring and being a nit
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