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25NL: Overpair facing small c/r multiway pot.

  
 
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Evilpopcorn
Old 06-14-2009, 05:11 PM     Post subject: 25NL: Overpair facing small c/r multiway pot. #1 (permalink)  
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Villian Stats : (VP$IP/PFR [Street Aggression] 3-bet%)

45/36 [3 - -] 0% over 11

My Thoughts And Questions

From the few hands i can pretty much assume he is not passive.

His c/r is quite small giving me 4 to 1 on the call ? Would he check raise this small on kidna drawy board with the BTN flatting my cbet ? Thinking like that it could be a KQ/KJ hand or some sort of play with a 6/7 and a draw. Perhaps even a naked draw? I do have the Ace of diamonds which puts less diamond draws in his range. I think he would have 3bet AK KK AA. Or am i over thinking it and this could be classic 25NL donk getting trappy trappy with his set 6/7.

If i decide to raise the c/r pot it will be for half his remaining stack. So if i decide to raise should i ship it ?


Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

BB: $23.45
UTG: $15.70
Hero (MP): $36.05
CO: $25.00
BTN: $13.25
SB: $34.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with A A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.50) 6 K 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.80, BTN calls $1.80, SB raises to $4.25,Hero?
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Micro2Macro
Old 06-14-2009, 05:24 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 VPIP/PFR stats are meaningless.

Given villain's position here, this looks strong...
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spoonitnow
Old 06-14-2009, 08:04 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 If you decide to raise it should be with the intent of stacking off because you think you are ahead of his stacking off range.
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Evilpopcorn
Old 06-14-2009, 08:12 PM #4 (permalink)  
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If the pot was hu with the SB i flat his c/r and evaluate turn. The BTN still in the hand complicates it for me tho. Feel like my hand need protection vs him, but i dont think SB stacking off range i have beat. I could be wrong tho.
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BlueBull
Old 06-14-2009, 08:34 PM #5 (permalink)  

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Ok Im pretty much breaking even on 25nl (largely from spewing in hands like this i suspect) over a biggish sample so take this from where its coming but im interested in the hand and look forward to seeing what the WINNING players think.

I think you are correct in that AA/KK/AK are unlikely. They mostly getting 3 bet preflop.

Which leaves the sets and draws and now and then a KQ/KJ type of hand. I think given the pot is multiway he may be a little more inclined than usual to flat with a draw here. (Im not ruling it out but Im slightly weighting his range towards the upper end of his range I guess).

It has cost me a lot of money but im finally starting to learn a few things about most 25NL players:

-> he is never raising air here
-> many will take a free card if they drawing here on the turn
-> almost none will triple barrel the draw if they miss

Given you somewhat deep I dont like 3 betting here. You gna fold the KQ/KJ hands... they play there sets super fast so often and u gna get shoved on by sets and big draws a ton.

So personally I flat and see what comes/happens on turn. Im proceeding with a large degree of caution.
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revolvingiris
Old 06-14-2009, 10:40 PM #6 (permalink)  
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IMO hes either drawing to the nuts or flopped a set/two pair. I can see 98s, 85s, 54s, 67 making this play and they certainly seem to fit into his range.

I think you can call here and not loose to much value. AK will likely lead a smaller turn bet and a FD will prob bet harder if missed. Id suspect a set to either value-town (3/4ish) or make it look like a bluff.

I don't think his VP$IP is worthless even if it is over 11. He's clearly a player that likes to get involved (wider range).
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nish81
Old 06-14-2009, 10:56 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I guess i'd put him at a set, or drawing to a flush? i dont think he'd be that aggressive with top pair, nor with a lower two pair. well, maybe with a two pair.

if he did have the two pair or top pair, i think he might just check or place a large bet to offer you bad odds if nothing came out on the turn.
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