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25NL - JJ facing river bet

  
 
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kiwiMark
Old 03-24-2010, 02:05 AM     Post subject: 25NL - JJ facing river bet #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 63/43 over 49 hands

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Cha5e04 ($5.25)
UTG+1 scorpi89 ($13.70)
CO PKDanho ($6)
BTN Hero ($25)
SB grave ace ($28)
BB habsfanhl ($24.30)

Pre-Flop: ($0.60, 6 players) Hero is BTN
[PKDanho posts $0.25]
1 fold, scorpi89 raises to $0.75, PKDanho calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.75, grave ace calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.25, 4 players)
grave ace checks, scorpi89 bets $0.50, PKDanho calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3, grave ace calls $3, scorpi89 folds, PKDanho folds

Turn: ($10.25, 2 players)
grave ace checks, Hero checks

River: ($10.25, 2 players)
grave ace bets $4.75, $4.75 to Hero ($21.25)?

Preflop: Villains who got in the pot before me were relatively unknown (for one of them it was his first hand at the table), so I flatted pre. I think villain (in SB) is calling here with a massively wide range, along the lines of: {any two suited, 22+, A2o+, K6o+, Q6o+, J8o+, T8o+}

Flop: PFRer cbets a tiny amount, and gets called, I rate to be ahead of their ranges so put the raise in. Villain calls with a range of {dimaonds, tens, fives, nines, 76-87, QJ, AK, all pocker pairs}, against which I've got 63% equity.

Turn: Looking back, I think this should have been a bet. When Villain checks I discount kings from his range, and while he probably now folds pairs below tens, I still have a ton of equity against that range.

River: Villain now leads out for a bit under half pot. I struggle to put him on a K (while there are certainly villains that would check hoping I'm going to bet again, on the turn, I don't think this villain is one of them), so as far as value he's really just repping fives, and I think he does this with missed flushdraws a bunch. That, and I only need 25% equity for it to be profitable, make this a fairly easy call.
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eragotte
Old 03-24-2010, 02:54 AM #2 (permalink)  
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eragotte
Id always squeeze here pre unless utg+1 was known to me as like a huge nit.

Flop is slightly small for 4 way and that drawy a board, 4 would be better to me.

Check turn is meh, i'd bet again but maybe im too aggro, his call on the flop def looks like a draw since he wouldnt wanna risk two more calls behind him with a set on a drawy board

river bet is small making me think his most likely made hand is QJ but also tons of FDs, I would think you easily have the equity against his range to make it a profitable call.
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littleogre
Old 03-24-2010, 11:34 AM #3 (permalink)  

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 bet turn if raised fold. If vill calls then bets river i think you call because it is likely a busted draw. My question is if vill calls a turn bet then checks river should hero bet or check behind. As played river is an easy call. to many busted draws to fold
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rpm
Old 03-24-2010, 12:15 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 i also like a 3bet pre. normally JJ is a smooth for me but this guy seems to be opening a decent amount and calling with heaps worse than JJ. make him make the mistake of calling with any pair (which i'm thinking he will do) and get set up to get set-over-setted or have to c/f a heap of flops.

betting turn is fine unless you think he's spazz enough to ever c/r you with worse. makes him pay to draw. if he has a king then he'll probably let you check behind on the river anyway (and your turn bet i'm thinking, will ensure he never bluffs, and let you play the river optimally)

at 3:1 i think this guy has xdxd or 78 enough on the river to look him up
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rpm
Old 03-24-2010, 12:16 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 he seems pretty aggressive and, i assume because of your small sample, isnt a reg. he could have heaps of garbage here i think
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DJJunkPauds
Old 03-24-2010, 05:21 PM #6 (permalink)  
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3bet pre, as played, bet turn.
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kiwiMark
Old 03-24-2010, 07:33 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Villain on the river and whose stats I posted was in SB- ie. he hadn't entered the pot at the time of my preflop flatting with JJ, the two villains already in the pot were unknown.

Just curious, all of you advocators of squeezing, is this also such an auto 3bet for you if only one of the two (take your pick) villains had entered the pot (for the same 3bb size)?

Cheers.
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DJJunkPauds
Old 03-24-2010, 08:27 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Yeah, it's a value 3bet, and not a steal. Think of it as a 3bet isolation for value. You're ahead of what he calls you with, and don't need to improve to bet the almost any flop for value, and a good chunk of turns as well. He's a maniac, and you have the 4th nuts right now. I'd have made it $4.50.
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rpm
Old 03-24-2010, 10:46 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark View Post
Villain on the river and whose stats I posted was in SB- ie. he hadn't entered the pot at the time of my preflop flatting with JJ, the two villains already in the pot were unknown.

Just curious, all of you advocators of squeezing, is this also such an auto 3bet for you if only one of the two (take your pick) villains had entered the pot (for the same 3bb size)?

Cheers.
my bad. i thought the pot was played vs the UTG raiser. i still like a value 3bet vs that range. i'll re-analyse the hand in light of it being played vs the small blind after about 900 hours of schoolwork i have to do
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rpm
Old 03-24-2010, 10:48 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by rpm View Post
my bad. i thought the pot was played vs the UTG raiser. i still like a value 3bet vs that range. i'll re-analyse the hand in light of it being played vs the small blind after about 900 hours of schoolwork i have to do
what an idiot. i thought the stats provided were for the UTG's open. i probably don't like a 3bet anymore. ignore all i've said
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kiwiMark
Old 03-25-2010, 12:11 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 Not a worry at all, that's why I posted again to clarify
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surviva316
Old 03-25-2010, 12:44 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark View Post
Just curious, all of you advocators of squeezing, is this also such an auto 3bet for you if only one of the two (take your pick) villains had entered the pot (for the same 3bb size)?

Cheers.
i pretty much 3b JJ against all fish from all positions unless they're some sort of rare fish that folds to a lot of 3b's (pretty much all fish call with worse hands, but there are sometimes where they open sooo wide preflop and play so aggro post flop that playing a HU pot against them IP in a single raised pot is good) or there's someone left to act behind me who squeezes a whole crap ton in this spot, especially if i feel they're gonna yam on a backraise thinking i'm FoS. there are also the occasional fish who are SO loose/passive that a PFR from them isn't ZOMG VALUE TOWN (like if he's a 60/3 over significant sample)

the plain and simple fact is that fish don't fold 88/AJ and stuff to 3b's and generally continue even much much wider than that regardless of position, so it's free money.

whether it's a squeeze if it were two reggy players is more of an interesting, multi-faceted spot.

anyway, i agree with like snap value betting the turn given the millions of draws and the fact that he won't fold Tx or even 9x so easily. getting a 3rd street out of a river blank is probably possible too, but checking it back to close out the betting action would likely be better given we would have a very tough time determining his c/r as a bluff frequency.

as played, i think like any friggin range in the world you run for this that recognizes even 1/2 of the bluffs he could have in this spot makes this a call.
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