Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

REGISTER
Subscribe to FTR web feed
Already Registered?      Username:    Password:   Remember      Forgot Password

Poker Forum

  > 

Beginners Circle

  > 

25NL Flopped set against nit

  
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
DJJunkPauds
Old 03-29-2010, 02:34 AM     Post subject: 25NL Flopped set against nit #1 (permalink)  
Flush

Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
DJJunkPauds
Villain is 15/7/3.1 over 100.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($32.90)
Hero (MP) ($44.50)
CO ($27.40)
Button ($5)
SB ($25.35)
BB ($5.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8, 8
UTG bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 7, 5, 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.75, UTG calls $3.25

Turn: ($11.35) Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.25, UTG raises to $12, [color=#CC3333]Hero does what? What's his plan for the river?

I think he occasionally plays a set of 5s/7s this way, probably mostly plays a set of queens this way, mostly plays a flush {AcTc-Kc, KcJc} this way, and might occasionally play KK+ with a club this way. I think he very rarely has a bluff, and only folds to a raise if he does. Not sure how to express that as a range. Like this, perhaps:

{AcTc-Kc, KcJc} 80%
{55} 15%
{77} 25%
{QQ} 60%
{AcAh, AcAs, AcAd, KcKh, KcKs, KcKd} 15%
{air which is drawing dead} negligible

You'll just have to trust me that this gives me 36% equity, and that's plenty to call his raise, not to mention the implied fill up odds.

My problem is, if I call his check-raise, what kind of river do I fold to? If I'm going to fold some rivers, isn't that awful, being as there'll be less than a psb left come the river? I can't fold the turn, because I'm getting the right price. I could shove, and wouldn't have this problem, but then I'd be getting the 15.40 on top in bad, wouldn't I?

Would it have been better to check behind, and make a medium sized v-bet on the end, or call a decent sized lead from him, assuming an innocuous river card?

I guess I hate slowing down. Probably means I'm an agro-donk.
Reply With Quote

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
rpm
Old 03-29-2010, 03:10 AM #2 (permalink)  
rpm's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: learnin'
Posts: 2,039
rpm has a spectacular aura aboutrpm has a spectacular aura aboutrpm has a spectacular aura about
 i think you can discount flopped sets because he may be 3bet jamminh these on the flop a decent %% of the time. especially being such a wet board. i think his range is


Board: 7s 8c 5c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.182% 43.18% 00.00% 247 0.00 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 56.818% 56.82% 00.00% 325 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, AcKc, AcJc, AcTc, KcJc }

i dont know how you got 36%. even without the sets he can have that you beat i'm getting 43%. i think i like a jam here. he may even have like KK or AA without a club because your small bet on the turn made him spazz out.
Reply With Quote
DJJunkPauds
Old 03-29-2010, 03:49 AM #3 (permalink)  
Flush

Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
DJJunkPauds
Quote:
Originally Posted by rpm View Post
i think you can discount flopped sets because he may be 3bet jamminh these on the flop a decent %% of the time. especially being such a wet board. i think his range is


Board: 7s 8c 5c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.182% 43.18% 00.00% 247 0.00 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 56.818% 56.82% 00.00% 325 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, AcKc, AcJc, AcTc, KcJc }

i dont know how you got 36%. even without the sets he can have that you beat i'm getting 43%. i think i like a jam here. he may even have like KK or AA without a club because your small bet on the turn made him spazz out.
But we don't know how he plays which hand, and he doesn't always play a certain hand the same way, thus I have weighted his range.

It would be unusual for him to play a set of 5s like this, but it's not impossible. I think of the times the he has a set of 5s, he plays it like above 15% of the time. I think he opts to check call with over pairs + 1 card fd more often than check raises, but that doesn't mean he doesn't check raise ever. Again, one needs to weight sections of a range.

Scroll to the section headed "Bayes Theorem".

The 2+2 Forum Archives: Instareads: Bayes theorum and small sample sizes

The thing with a shove is, I'm behind if he calls, I think (tell me otherwise?), but calling with the intention of folding any river, other than perhaps a 4th club, is pretty ridiculous. Or maybe it isn't; perhaps someone wants to tell me why it's fine to do that. I also think I have <5% FE.
Reply With Quote
rpm
Old 03-29-2010, 07:17 AM #4 (permalink)  
rpm's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: learnin'
Posts: 2,039
rpm has a spectacular aura aboutrpm has a spectacular aura aboutrpm has a spectacular aura about
 oh you had discounted combos in stove for what % he has them when he takes this line? fair enough. because you didnt c and p the stove results i didnt realise. thanks for the link. i'm checking it out now
Reply With Quote
DJJunkPauds
Old 03-29-2010, 06:04 PM #5 (permalink)  
Flush

Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
DJJunkPauds
Quote:
Originally Posted by rpm View Post
oh you had discounted combos in stove for what % he has them when he takes this line? fair enough. because you didnt c and p the stove results i didnt realise. thanks for the link. i'm checking it out now
No, what percentage he takes this line when he has them.
Reply With Quote
Reply
Latest Poker News
KoRnholio Old 05-26-2012, 03:08 PM    Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ...

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT. The time now is 02:14 PM.

Contact Us - Archive - Top

FTR Testimonials

All content
© FlopTurnRiver.com 		Advertising  |   Partners  |   Testimonials  |   T&C  |   Contact Us  |   FTR News & Press  |   Site Map  |   Search FTR

Full Tilt  |   Titan Poker  |   UltimateBet  |   Poker Stars  |   Ladbrokes Bonus  |   Sportsbook  |   Cake Poker  

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum
This is not a gambling website.