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25NL AA facing turn donkbet on draw heavy board

  
 
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BluffCheck
Old 07-11-2009, 11:23 PM     Post subject: 25NL AA facing turn donkbet on draw heavy board #1 (permalink)  

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No other reads, except that he's kind of fishy, and has minraised preflop the last 3-4 hands in a row. After villain's turn bet, he has ~$10 in his stack, and pot is ~$20.

Villain 38/14/3, fold 3bet 0:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($22.62)
CO ($21.03)
Button ($25.06)
SB ($13.38)
BB ($25)
UTG ($21.41)
UTG+1 ($22.59)
MP1 ($11.15)
Hero (MP2) ($25)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.85) J, Q, 4 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2, Hero raises to $6, UTG+1 calls $4

Turn: ($15.85) K (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $4.50

Total pot: $15.85
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Micro2Macro
Old 07-11-2009, 11:26 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Micro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the rough
 Well, folding isn't an option.

How strong do you think his donk lead is? (i.e. range) Regardless you're going to have pretty damn nice equity.
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HarleyGuy13
Old 07-11-2009, 11:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I"m shoving here myself but that damn sure isn't a reason for anybody else to.
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JoeHaw
Old 07-12-2009, 02:24 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I think this is actually a pretty easy shove- even if you don't stove any TPTK hands in his range you still have nice equity w the Ad and a T giving you a straight
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optimists
Old 07-13-2009, 02:27 PM #5 (permalink)  

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Seems like an easy call, as you have 14 outs to win (I consider 9 diamonds, 3 Tens and 2 Aces) even if you put him on KK (with QQ he would have probably re-raised you on the flop already).
I do not think he has already made his flush (normal person would have already folded with JT of diamonds to your re-raise pre-flop, AT also does not do - fold you your re-raise after the flop).
so your odds to draw winning hand are 30%, while you have to put $4.5 to win $20.35 (only 22% of the pot).
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only_bridge
Old 07-13-2009, 04:40 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I think shoving would be my choice.
I dont see any way to get away from the hand if you call, and there are some possible scenarios where opponent might fold on the river. If he has TT with one diamond for instance. (not very probable but hey)
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