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1st post and odds question

  
 
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gnads
Old 08-23-2006, 08:20 PM     Post subject: 1st post and odds question #1 (permalink)  

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gnads
After lurking here for about 6 months I've have finally decided to join in (since I suck so bad and need the help), so thanks in advance and here goes.....

Here's a hand from last night...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($6.95)
UTG+1 ($19.75)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($8.15)
Hero ($12.15)
Button ($10)
SB ($5.90)
BB ($10.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4, 4. MP1 posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.60) 5, 4, 7 (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.3, UTG folds, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $1, Button raises to $9.9, SB calls $5.80 (All-In), BB folds, Hero calls $8.90.

Turn: ($26.50) Q (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($26.50) Q (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $26.50

I just wanted to confirm I was justified in the AI call, - if I'm calculating correctly, with a set against a flopped str8 I have 10 outs to beat it and need 1.6:1 odds to call. I wasn't going to call the first AI, but when the second guy pushed I thought that gave me the right odds.

Was that the right call, or does the possibility of another set make this a -EV call? (and would I have been correct to fold to the first AI if the second guy folded instead of pushed?)
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saxdaddy
Old 08-23-2006, 09:24 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Turn percentage:

3 fives, 3 sevens, 1 four = 7 outs = 7 / 47 cards = .14893617 to hit or .85106383 to miss

River percentage (if missed turn)

3 fives, 3 sevens, 1 four, 3 Xs (whatever came on the turn) = 10 outs = 10 / 46 cards = 0.21739130 to hit or .7826087 to miss

total percentage to miss is .85106383 * .7826087 = 0.666049958 (thanks GoogleCalculator)

So basically, you have a 1/3 chance of hitting and 2/3 chance of missing.

You might say (2/3) / (1/3) = 2:1 odds are required to break even.

I prefer to look at it as I would only call if my total contribution to the pot (at that point 8.90) was less than a third of the resulting total pot (16.00).

Thus I may call up to 5.333 if I feel like it. Barring any reads on the other player.

This assumes opponent has str8 or TPTK that doen't improve to beat a set.

If opponent has 77 then you're toast most likely 100%.

The other caller may have improved the size of the pot, but he also made your odds of winning lower.

$1 invested, .10 table, I think I save my 8.90 for another hand.

My 2 cents anyway.
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JL
Old 08-23-2006, 09:50 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saxdaddy
I prefer to look at it as I would only call if my total contribution to the pot (at that point 8.90) was less than a third of the resulting total pot (16.00).

Thus I may call up to 5.333 if I feel like it. Barring any reads on the other player.
Umm...according to my calculations the pot is $17.6 by the time he has to make his All in call for another $8.9.

When he makes this call the pot will now be $26.5....so he has to call $8.9 to win $26.5, which is pretty much exactly 1/3, giving him the odds to make this call.
Therefore, I call here....but fold if the other guy folds first.
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TLR
Old 08-24-2006, 05:47 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 Just because someone came over the top it does not mean he has the str8, lots of time it is TPTK or a flush draw with 2 overs. You should be more worried from the SB who checked and then called an AI re-reraise, he could have a str8, a higher set or a A6 or 66. However I would still call


 
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jyms
Old 08-24-2006, 01:17 PM #5 (permalink)  
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jyms has a spectacular aura aboutjyms has a spectacular aura aboutjyms has a spectacular aura about
 At $10NL it's +EV to get all your money in with any set. Set's are $$makers. At this stake they will all-in with Ax TPWK so always call that.
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bruinblue
Old 08-24-2006, 08:27 PM #6 (permalink)  
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set = $

never fold set at 10 NL!

just my experience. basically ive found that 10 NL is just set farming like no other and then stack someone when you do. of course i play 10 NL only when drunk so...
r4racer220: every day is lee jones day
 
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gnads
Old 08-24-2006, 09:36 PM #7 (permalink)  

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gnads
that's great, thanks for the input everyone.

Although I'm a bit disappointed not to get any of the 'welcome to FTR', 'good luck' etc. replies people seem to get with their first post....what's the dizzle??
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AHiltz
Old 08-24-2006, 10:15 PM #8 (permalink)  
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WELCOME

Glad to have ya

Good luck





now stop whinning like the rest of the little bitches around here
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TLR
Old 08-25-2006, 05:26 AM #9 (permalink)  
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TLR is an unknown quantity at this point
 Welcome to FTR...


 
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Sprayed
Old 08-25-2006, 11:49 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 Call all day and welcome to FTR and gl.
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KingLizard
Old 08-25-2006, 03:56 PM #11 (permalink)  
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KingLizard
Quote:
Originally Posted by AHiltz
now stop whinning like the rest of the little bitches around here
ROFLMAO

Oh ... an welcome

Signed ... whiny bitch
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