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15-out Turn. Hand Advice*

  
 
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wellrounded08
Old 08-17-2008, 08:51 PM     Post subject: 15-out Turn. Hand Advice* #1 (permalink)  
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Alright First off, I'm only raising this preflop because this table has completely Nit'd up, and I just raised With AA then two hands later QQ and got no callers preflop. I wasn't even playing Super tight, raising all PP from all positions, raising Suited AK AQ KQ from all positions and more from Mid-Late position. Anyway So Right after my QQ hand I get K J and decide to raise it up to debunk this nit theory they apparently have of me.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($2.74)
CO ($5.14)
Button ($5.02)
SB ($2.32)
BB ($6.14)
Hero ($4.68)
UTG+1 ($5.22)
MP1 ($6.19)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, J.
Hero raises to $0.08, 5 folds, SB calls $0.07, 1 fold.

Flop: ($0.18) 9, 7, T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.18, SB raises to $0.5, Hero calls $0.32.

*This is a simi-bluff C-bet, I've got the Up and down straight draw and two over cards.+1 out for the back door straight draw.


Turn: ($1.18) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $1.74 (All-In), Hero calls $1.74.

*At this point, I've got the up and down straight draw, and I've got the flush draw. A total of 15 outs (9 diamonds 3 queens 3 Eights) Maybe the two over cards but Highly unlikely he's doing this with 1 pair I know.
Obviously during my session review I realized that there is no way I could have had the right odds here. If I had had 15 outs on the flop, that would be an easy push, but It was the turn... anyway, I know I butcher'd this hand All up, but I guess I like the abuse. How many things should I have changed here?

River: ($4.66) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $4.66
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bigspenda73
Old 08-17-2008, 08:58 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 What pot odds do you need to call an all-in with a 15 out draw?
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wellrounded08
Old 08-17-2008, 09:17 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Well I'm probably going to make an ass of myself by answering, but that's fine i'm not posting in the High stakes forum.

I dunno.
15 outs
46 cards left... On the turn I'm not really sure, I'd be getting 2:1 on my money, but I would only hit it roughly 30% right?
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Erpel
Old 08-17-2008, 09:39 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Spenda has the right idea - take the next step and try to work these odd calculation things out yourself.

Let me help with this one.

First, let's agree how many outs you have. We'll call it 15. He might have the same straight you're drawing to (thinking of the low straight if the 8 comes) and he might be holding two diamonds with the A for a better flush than you - but then he might be bluffing and your overcards be outs also. In many cases like this you weigh these two sets of factors:
More outs: Already ahead (bluff), overcards
Less outs: Some outs give split outs, some outs are held by opponent, some outs are outs that improve us but improve our opponent also to a better hand.

Often, for simplicity people suggest that the outs for straights and flushes are about exact when all of the above is counted in. In the present case I think it's highly likely that your opponent is holding an 8, which means there are 2 and not 3 outs that are 8, and those 2 are to split pots. So maybe 13 or so is a truer number.

Anyway, in this way you decide on a number of outs that we can call good, which you will base your calculations on. Let's call it 15 for simplicity.

The rule of 2 and 4 says that 15 outs with one card to come means you have a 30% chance of hitting one of your outs.

The pot contains $1.18 and the bet is $1.74. Assuming you call, you will be calling $1.74 to win $2.92. Your call will make a total pot of $4.68. If you win 1.74 / 4.68 of the time - 37% of the time - or more you would be correct to call.

As an example, if he bets exactly the size of the pot you need to win 33.3% of the time.

The above is using equity. You can do the same with pot odds.

You have yet to see one of the last 46 cards - 15 are good, and 31 are bad - that's odds slightly higher than 2 to 1 against you winning. The odds offered by the pot are 2.92 to 1.74. 2.92 divided by 1.74 is 1, with a rest of 1.18 which is happens to be exactly two thirds of 1.74 - so the pot odds are 1.66 to 1 - worse than the odds against you winning.
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Erpel
Old 08-17-2008, 09:45 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wellrounded08
Well I'm probably going to make an ass of myself by answering, but that's fine i'm not posting in the High stakes forum.

I dunno.
15 outs
46 cards left... On the turn I'm not really sure, I'd be getting 2:1 on my money, but I would only hit it roughly 30% right?
You'd only make an ass of yourself by not trying to answer - beginners forum is for people to learn and learning comes from going through these things yourself. We can correct your misunderstandings, but only if you make an effort.

Btw, the hand is played pretty correctly, except the turn probably should be a fold. The turn is possibly more marginal than the above suggests - if he can bluff in this place with a draw of his own - say he has a KJ of his own. But at these stakes he probably ISN'T good enough to shove a draw here, which makes calling -EV. Shoving here can be correct even when calling a shove is not - because the one who gets to shove gets the fold equity. I would have been happy for you to shove the turn - if called you'll be behind, but you also fold out a lot of hands which makes the play as a whole plus EV - and if called you're not terribly off the breakeven mark, even if behind, due to all your outs.
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wellrounded08
Old 08-17-2008, 10:02 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erpel
You'd only make an ass of yourself by not trying to answer - beginners forum is for people to learn and learning comes from going through these things yourself. We can correct your misunderstandings, but only if you make an effort.

Got it.

Btw, the hand is played pretty correctly, except the turn probably should be a fold. The turn is possibly more marginal than the above suggests - if he can bluff in this place with a draw of his own - say he has a KJ of his own. But at these stakes he probably ISN'T good enough to shove a draw here, which makes calling -EV. Shoving here can be correct even when calling a shove is not - because the one who gets to shove gets the fold equity. I would have been happy for you to shove the turn - if called you'll be behind, but you also fold out a lot of hands which makes the play as a whole plus EV - and if called you're not terribly off the breakeven mark, even if behind, due to all your outs.

Yeah, I kinda took note of that. Thanks for enforcing the Idea.
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bigspenda73
Old 08-17-2008, 10:51 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 teach a man to fish yo
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bigspenda73
Old 08-17-2008, 11:00 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Alright, here is how you determine how much equity (the % of the time you will win) and your pot odds (the relationship of your opponents bet to what you stand to win if you call).

On the turn you have 15 outs if you believe your opponent has an eight here. Those are 9 diamonds and the 6 straight outs that are NOT diamonds. This is where people typically mis-count by counting the same card twice.

There are 46 cards and you have 15 outs, making you hit just about 1 in 3 times, or 1:2 in ratio form, 1/3rd in fraction form.

Basically for every dollar you call with you need to see $2 in return. Therefore your opponent's bet here is too big for you to call. You are calling $1.74 to win $2.92. You would need to win $3.48 to make this call break-even.
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wellrounded08
Old 08-18-2008, 12:29 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Alright, here is how you determine how much equity (the % of the time you will win) and your pot odds (the relationship of your opponents bet to what you stand to win if you call).

On the turn you have 15 outs if you believe your opponent has an eight here. Those are 9 diamonds and the 6 straight outs that are NOT diamonds. This is where people typically mis-count by counting the same card twice.

Got that, I made sure before I posted, but 15 WAS what I had in mind at the time of the call.

There are 46 cards and you have 15 outs, making you hit just about 1 in 3 times, or 1:2 in ratio form, 1/3rd in fraction form.

Basically for every dollar you call with you need to see $2 in return. Therefore your opponent's bet here is too big for you to call. You are calling $1.74 to win $2.92. You would need to win $3.48 to make this call break-even.
I do understand what your saying, and while I've got my fish'n rod and the bait, I'm not sure I'll be able to apply it as quickly as I would like to. I will however make an effort to think about it on a regular basis until it become somewhat second nature. Thanks there spenda. By the way, Big fan of your 4 table micro-limits vid.
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bigspenda73
Old 08-18-2008, 12:46 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 welcome mate
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Erpel
Old 08-18-2008, 09:14 AM #11 (permalink)  
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If I find the time today I'll write up a bit of homework for you wellrounded. I'll probably post it in a new thread though. I still haven't decided how I want to handle responses (PM or posts) as I do intend to let other people have a shot at it too.
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OhBollocks
Old 08-18-2008, 11:30 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erpel
If I find the time today I'll write up a bit of homework for you wellrounded. I'll probably post it in a new thread though. I still haven't decided how I want to handle responses (PM or posts) as I do intend to let other people have a shot at it too.
Posts please

Can I just say thanks to you, and Spoonit, Stacks, Fnord, jyms, Spenda and all of you solid to excellent (Fnord) players who take the time to help the noobites in the beginners circle who make the effort to improve. I for one am extremeley grateful that I have somewhere I know I will get good advise. [/asskissing]

Kudos to you all
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