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12 out draw facing reraise with odds - what do you do?

  
 
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Anaemik
Old 05-26-2006, 11:37 PM     Post subject: 12 out draw facing reraise with odds - what do you do? #1 (permalink)  
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Bodog $25 NL

Hero is CO with $23.75

Hero is dealt KsJs

UTG call .25
UTG+1 call .25
MP1 raise to $1
MP2 fold
MP3 fold
Hero call $1
BTN fold
SB fold
BB fold
UTG call .75
UTG+1 call .75

Pot is now $4.35


Flop is Ts As 2d

Hero has 12 outs to the nuts and calculates his chances at approx 3-1

MP1 bets $4
Hero calls $4
UTG folds
UTG+1 raises to $11.70
MP1 calls $7.70

Pot is now $31.75
Hero needs to call $7.70, and is getting just over 4-1 on his money, so he calls (I'd like to see the arguments for calling vs folding here)

Pot is now $39.45


Turn card is 9d

Board now Ts As sd 9d

UTG+1 goes all in for $10.80
MP1 calls $10.80
Hero has $11.05 left

What's your play?
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Anaemik
Old 05-26-2006, 11:47 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I should also add (because I guess a lot of you will not like my original PF call), that the initial raiser had been observed to be active in the last 5 hands, and was also the big stack at the table by a factor of almost 2-1 over the next largest stack. As a relative newcomer to the table, I classified him with as much information as I had as LAG, and made the call.
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givememyleg
Old 05-26-2006, 11:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I would probably fold preflop and raise the flop when mp1 bets $4. AA TT isn't too out of the question though given the preflop action.

I would probably just push the flop. Given the action, you can be sure someone is going to shove the turn and I would want to get my chips in on the flop with 2 cards to come, rather than 1.

On the turn you have to call $10 to win $70. I think you have to call?

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Anaemik
Old 05-26-2006, 11:54 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I thought you might not like the PF call. I find the push difficult on the flop, given the A on the board and the fact that I'm up against two runners. You think I'm being too loose/passive in making the call?

Results of hand to follow soon.
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givememyleg
Old 05-27-2006, 12:16 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Just judging by the action here, all 3 of you are going to be putting your stacks in the middle. I think once you get raised on the flop you have to decide if you want to gambol or not. If you answer yes then you should just shove it then, rather than calling and leaving $10 behind in a $40 pot. If you answer no, fold and don't just call that reraise. I think calling was the worst option you could have chosen, imo.

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WhooFleuryScores
Old 05-27-2006, 05:21 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Call.
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Anaemik
Old 05-27-2006, 12:37 PM #7 (permalink)  
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OK, here's what happened. I called almost without hesitation. As givememyleg points out, I'm getting about 7-1 here, so it makes my call (to me, at least) a no brainer.

River comes Qs

Well, I wanted either a Q or a spade for the nuts, and it turns out I got a Q AND a spade, giving me the royal flush. It turns out that original raiser had AJo, whilst MP2 had AT for 2 pair. I win the pot, and the whole table rails on me. I'm hearing "you fuqqing dumbass", "fuqqing doucherod", "fuqqing idiot", "fuqqing fish" - you name it, as long as it had "fuqqing" in it, I was getting called it. Usually I'm fairly impervious to those kind of remarks, but this time round it was the whole table having a pop at me, and even after explaining to them the odds I had for the calls (which I shouldn't have even bothered doing) I took a 10 minute volley of abuse before finally leaving the table. Now, as this was my first day on Bodog, I wasn't sure if this was just the kind of attitude that the site cultivates, whether I just happened to be on a table full of sore asses, or whether my play is way behind the level of these guys, and I actually made an uberdonkish play.

Try as I might, I can't help but analyse the hand as follows, concluding that there was nothing completely horrible about this play:

A pot with two limpers already in it is raised by a player who has been active in almost every hand I've played on the table so far. As I'm likely to have position with my hand after the flop, with the play indicating this would end up a multiway pot, and taking into account the stakes I'm playing at, I feel this is a reasonable call.

By the time the flop comes, I have a 12 out draw to the nuts, which means, by my calcualtions, if I see the hand through to completion, I'm a 3-2 dog to hit the lock hand - with a pot sized bet laying me 2-1, I take those odds.

Once the raiser behind me pumps it up another $7.70, and after original raiser calls, although that clearly suggests at least 1 strong hand out there, the pot is now giving me better odds than it was before - and makes my call automatic in my eyes. Givememyleg makes a convincing argument for raising or folding here, and I can see his logic. However, I disagree with him that calling was the worst option here (although usually it is) - I think raise or call were my best bets. If the original raiser had folded to the re-raise, then I can see the value in walking away from this hand, but his call creates exactly the situation I want for this kind of draw, and I really don't see myself laying this hand down. If someone can explain to me how retarded this attitude is, I'd really like to learn from it.

Finally, both me and MP2 are down to our last $10, having committed about $15 each to the pot. Those chips are going in the middle, simple as that.

I've either played this just fine, or there's a big leak I need plugging somewhere that I'm just not seeing, and anyone that can help me identify it I will have my full gratitude.
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Werddown
Old 05-27-2006, 01:30 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I fold preflop.

As played, I like how you played it... just calling the flop bet/raise... and calling the push on the turn. You have +EV pot odds to draw at your hand, and combined with your implied odds, its a clear call on both streets... However if you push the hand on the flop and get called, you're now drawing at 3 to 1 and putting in at least 1/3rd of the money if BOTH of them call your all in, and almost 1/2 of the money if just one of them calls, making it -EV.. Also with that flop raise I dont think that UTG is folding.

Yeah, if you push the flop you get to see two more cards for sure, but you're also investing your entire stack to see those two cards instead of just a portion of your stack. You can fold on the river if you dont hit it and save a little bit of money. Both the straight and the flush will be the nuts if you hit them, so you arent looking to limit the field at all... So whats the reason for the push?

Even if you figure that you can SOMEHOW knock them both out of the pot and take it down on the flop, I dont like the push because with your implied odds, you figure to collect additional bets on later streets, and if you hit the nut flush / straight you're going to win alot more money by allowing them to bet some more.

Plus, if you're playing against a set here, and you push the flop, they're definitely calling you, and though seeing two more cards gives you a better chance to make your flush/straight, it also gives them 2 cards to make a boat or quads and beat your hand.
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Miffed22001
Old 05-27-2006, 01:54 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 at 25nl i may just have stuck the whole lot in the pot
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Anaemik
Old 05-27-2006, 03:08 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I know you're half joking miffed, but this was kind of the mindset I had with this hand. If this were $200NL I'd reconsider, but I think I had to factor in the stakes I was playing at when I made the play.
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flomo
Old 05-27-2006, 04:21 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by givememyleg
I would probably just push the flop. Given the action, you can be sure someone is going to shove the turn and I would want to get my chips in on the flop with 2 cards to come, rather than 1.

On the turn you have to call $10 to win $70. I think you have to call?
you played KJs, and got one of the best flops for your hand. i think you should have pushed the flop also.

good luck
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Miffed22001
Old 05-27-2006, 05:01 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I know you're half joking miffed, but this was kind of the mindset I had with this hand. If this were $200NL I'd reconsider, but I think I had to factor in the stakes I was playing at when I made the play.
To be honest i was probably 10% joking
At 200nl id have made a raise to commit any hand to the pot, i think id do the same here.

When mp1 bets i raise to $12 then we have to assume UTG+1 just pushes so we now have $11~ behind and the pot offers us better than 30-40% which we probably are to win the pot as utg+1 must have a set or two pair. Therefore we can call the push with what we have behind and the draw we have.
id raise for two reasons here with 100bbs stacks.
1. We can steal on the turn even if we dont hit as MP1 has to be scared TP no good
2. Any bigger hand behind has to push, or should just push with 100bbs stacks and weve already committed ourself to the pot with our raise and the pot odds we create.
With more than 100bbs behind here in the stacks id have been careful about raising because of stack sizes and getting pot odds.
As a personal preference i like to get a lot of money in the pot early with big draws as once the pot gets big you cant ever fold and with draws like this i like to gambOOl for stacks. Also, id play a set/two pair like this so when i push the flop/later streets i can be drawing or have a strong hand.
Presonally i hate the smooth call with big draws as its obvious and doesnt commit you to the pot early enough. It also forces monster made hands to push behind on a 3bet most of the time and creates the pot odds for us to call as happened here. If utg+1 hadnt pushed behind we would have control of the pot on the turn anyway HU against mp1 where we would have either 2/3 potted it or just pushed with or without the goods
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Anaemik
Old 05-27-2006, 06:00 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Thanks for all the input guys.

So the general concensus is riase it up on the flop? OK, I'm starting to figure out I may have been too passive with this hand. In this instance, I can't think of any situation where all of our chips aren't going in though. If original bettor is raising PF with AJo with two limpers behind, he's likely to be not passing any sniff of the flop once the cards come down. I also see the other guy having a tough time passing 2 pair. So in this situation I guess it's fairly moot.

However, if we're taking this as a general discussion on how to play this hand against a certain set of conditions, I'm starting to appreciate the push mentality.

The lack of positive comments in here regarding my original PF call suggests that my logic behind making the decision is fundamentally flawed. Can someone outline for me a convincing counter-argument to my justification for the call?
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Chicago_Kid
Old 05-27-2006, 08:30 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
at 25nl i may just have stuck the whole lot in the pot
I would disagree here. I think playing at 25 NL gives me more reason to save money and see turn/river with some money left. At 25NL you are going to get two callers, leaving you Behind. I would argue the reason to push is to (1) get your opps money in when you have lots of outs AND (2) maximize any fold equity at your disposal. As prev. said, the action and shorter stacks say they're going in, and proBally Both are going in ahead of you.
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Lukie
Old 05-28-2006, 05:09 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 include stack sizes in posts

fold preflop

i'm not sure whether I like the call or to raise on the flop the first time around

2nd time around it's a really easy push

turn, easiest call ever
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gabe
Old 05-28-2006, 05:23 PM #16 (permalink)  
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push the flop after the guy raises behind you
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WhooFleuryScores
Old 05-28-2006, 06:04 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
I wasn't sure if this was just the kind of attitude that the site cultivates, whether I just happened to be on a table full of sore asses, or whether my play is way behind the level of these guys, and I actually made an uberdonkish play.
Those guys are retards don't let it bother you.Ap0logize and act as if you got lucky and proceed to take their reloads.
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saywhat2
Old 05-28-2006, 07:23 PM #18 (permalink)  
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All in on the flop. You are better than 3 to 1.
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Miffed22001
Old 05-28-2006, 08:56 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
push the flop after the guy raises behind you
I hate this line but when the hand is played as it was then its probably best. I prefer my raise line with draws and sets but meh thats preference.

Quote:
I would disagree here. I think playing at 25 NL gives me more reason to save money and see turn/river with some money left. At 25NL you are going to get two callers, leaving you Behind. I would argue the reason to push is to (1) get your opps money in when you have lots of outs AND (2) maximize any fold equity at your disposal. As prev. said, the action and shorter stacks say they're going in, and proBally Both are going in ahead of you.
I think this is a horribly passive approach to playing against generally weak players at 25nl. I prefer to play big pots with big hands/big draws by creating fold equity through betting and aggression, not calling and passivity.
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