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10NL - Two Hands

  
 
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kfaess
Old 04-28-2009, 04:12 AM     Post subject: 10NL - Two Hands #1 (permalink)  
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 Hand 1:

Villain 1: 18/10/3.3 over 79 hands
Villain 2: 16/3/1.3 over 74 hands


Villain 1 ($10.40)
MP2 ($10.10)
MP3 ($10)
CO ($9.65)
Hero (Button) ($11.90)
Villain 2 ($10)
BB ($3.65)
UTG ($16.70)
UTG+1 ($10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 8
2 folds, MP1 bets $0.30, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($1) 9, 8, 10 (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets $0.60, Hero raises $1.75, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold

Turn: ($5.10) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $2.60, Hero ???

Raised flop bet because its such a drawy board, maybe I could have raised more but I considered both nitty and wanted a call. After he leads the turn it seems like a fold given passiveness.


Hand 2:

Villain is 19/9/inf over 43 hands

SB ($17.45)
Hero (BB) ($11.75)
UTG ($8.90)
UTG+1 ($14.80)
MP1 ($2)
MP2 ($19.05)
MP3 ($15.70)
CO ($10)
Button ($6.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A
6 folds, Button bets $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 6, Q, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.25) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($2.25) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2, Hero ???

If he had like a 2-4% raise over a larger sample I may consider folding this hand, dunno if other people would. I checked the flop for two reasons: pot control and because calling a raise then leading into him on flop is so strong. I've got no idea what he has after his bet on the river and I don't know what made hand better than mine would take this line so it looks kinda bluffy to me. Didn't make the call though.
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Ragnar4
Old 04-28-2009, 04:30 AM #2 (permalink)  
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H1: Looks like you've been given odds to try to catch back up here. Call and hope he checks behind when you miss, and shoves when you catch.

H2: Ick. I call, but I tend to give way too much value to my opponents.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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siltstrider
Old 04-28-2009, 04:52 AM #3 (permalink)  
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***I pretty much suck at poker, so try not to take this as dependable advice. I'm just trying to get better by thinking through certain situations. If anyone notices flaws in my thinking, please point them out.***


"Villain 1: 18/10/3.3 over 79 hands"

I don't know what these numbers mean. I understand that they are VPP and PFR%, but isn't the third AF? Isn't 3+ supposed to be a bit high for "honest" players? Do you have any other read on him besides "passiveness" and these numbers? Have you seen him bet his draws? Have you seen him cbet? What kinds of hands has he shown down after playing this way? Have you seen him double-barrel the times his cbet was called?

Unless he bets his draws, I would figure that he already liked his hand on the flop, so why wouldn't he like it on the turn? If he was just makinga cbet bluff, why didn't he fold? If he bluffs even semi-frequently, he would probably do it on this scarecard.

So:

Either he bluffs a little and I feel comfortable taking him on here.
or
He wasn't bluffing, which probably means his hand hasn't improved.

Sure, sometimes he has a suited hand, but I don't think he's raising pf based on suitedness alone. To me that would mean that the odds of a hand in his range being suited at all, especially a particular suit, are kind of slim.

If making a HPB works for him 1/3 of the time on the scarecard, he breaks even doing it. Sometimes, the board will still pair. Knowing that sometimes he's bluffing and sometimes he isn't but we win anyway makes me consider calling. I'm not sure a shove or raise here would do anything but fold out bluffs and leave in the flushes, plus a call gives you another chance to make your FH, which should come in ~21% or about 1/5 of the time. So basically, your odds are 4:1 against making it.

If you call his bet here AND he has the flush, you are paying $2.60 right now to have a shot at winning $10.85. That's just a few cents better than 4 : 1 on your money. I think that in this situation, it's just about a break even play, even if he is never bluffing.

Again, I wouldn't shove, because only flushes call and it makes you pay the rest of your stack, which pretty much wrecks your implied odds. Your call may also induce a further bluff on the river if he is indeed bluffing.
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Lucothefish
Old 04-28-2009, 08:46 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 Hand 1: You're likely behind here, but even so I'd flat and hope for the board to pair on the river. You're just about getting odds for it.

Hand 2: Anyone with a made flush or a king would never have checked behind on the turn. I think you just folded the best hand.
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Carroters
Old 04-28-2009, 11:44 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 1. Call, it's a strange way to play a bigger set or straight/small flush. I'd call and expect to either be ahead or drawing to your 10 outs vs a flush. I don't see how we can fold this turn. I'd consider folding to a large river bet here, since there's not a lot of worse hands he can bet for value on the river and there aren't really bluffs in his range either.

2. Call I guess, he's repping exactly a 6 and not much else Could be some retarded turn "slowplay" of the nuts, but I think we have enough equity here given the amount of air in his range.

 
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WillburForce
Old 04-28-2009, 12:01 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 hand 1: call hope to pick up a boat. No boat, look up a non-diamond smallish bet. Fold to a big bet.

Hand 2: Villains play flushes like this at $10nl. I fold I think.
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dtamburin
Old 04-28-2009, 12:25 PM #7 (permalink)  

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Hand 1: I think you have the implied odds to call, your getting almost 2:1 pot odds for the call. You then have 10 outs, which gives you 3.6:1
Since there is still about 5 dollars behind, I think you can make up that difference on the river if you hit.
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Illfavor
Old 04-28-2009, 02:14 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 H1- Raise flop way more?

H2- I don't think I fold. I don't understand this hand, so maybe this is a leak for me. Our goal was to flop top pair and do nothing to extract any value with it? Our line gets nothing from the hands you beat and allows him to bluff a bunch of scare cards and get you to fold because his range is only flushes? Meh.
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kfaess
Old 04-28-2009, 03:32 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
I don't know what these numbers mean. I understand that they are VPP and PFR%, but isn't the third AF? Isn't 3+ supposed to be a bit high for "honest" players? Do you have any other read on him besides "passiveness" and these numbers?
Yes the third number is the AF, but you're looking at the wrong villain's stats. I would say 3 is just about right but it also depends on VPIP (the more hands you play the weaker your average holding and thus the more passive you must play). The guy with the AF of 3 made the initial bet then folded after I raised and the other (passive) villain called. This other villian has an AF of 1.3, so when he calls my flop raise then leads into me for a largish bet on a turn scare card I'm gonna give him credit.

I didn't think about the redraw to the boat when I was playing and this is definately a call. I feel like he's either bluffing and a call may discourage him to fire again a good portion of the time, winning me the pot. Or he has a monster and will go broke with it to my boat when I hit. Missed some value here.

Quote:
H2: Ick. I call, but I tend to give way too much value to my opponents.
Quote:
Hand 2: Anyone with a made flush or a king would never have checked behind on the turn. I think you just folded the best hand.
Quote:
Hand 2: Anyone with a made flush or a king would never have checked behind on the turn. I think you just folded the best hand.
Quote:
Hand 2: Villains play flushes like this at $10nl. I fold I think.
Looks like majority says call for hand 2. I've seen many people play a King like this, and some people would play a flush like this. That said, I'm not sure if this happens with enough frequency to make a fold good.

Quote:
I don't understand this hand, so maybe this is a leak for me. Our goal was to flop top pair and do nothing to extract any value with it? Our line gets nothing from the hands you beat and allows him to bluff a bunch of scare cards and get you to fold because his range is only flushes? Meh.
Any other comments about the line for this hand?? I have no idea if it is good or horrible so any thoughts are welcome.
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Ragnar4
Old 04-28-2009, 03:48 PM #10 (permalink)  
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The more I think about H2, the more I Think we're worried about pot-control here.

Checking and hoping opponent checks back on turn is good.

Perhaps exercising a river blocking bet of just a shade over 1/2 pot would have been better? Intent to B/F?

The reason being is twofold. Unless your opponent has the nut flush he's probably not raising, and the bet is in the name of pot-control with a hand you want to show down that still has some value.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Vinland
Old 04-28-2009, 05:33 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 In H2, with the 2 suited cards, why not re-raise on the flop with TPTK?
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kfaess
Old 04-28-2009, 09:18 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinland
In H2, with the 2 suited cards, why not re-raise on the flop with TPTK?
Because if I raise this flop my equity in the hand drops significantly (i.e he folds many of the hands I currently am ahead of and continues with most of the hand that have me crushed/have good equity against me).

EDIT: also I'd rather not play a huge pot with only TPTK.
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