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10NL Thought process on top two pair.

  
 
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RML604
Old 01-09-2009, 04:06 AM     Post subject: 10NL Thought process on top two pair. #1 (permalink)  
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 In the spirit of this (imo awesome) movement by everyone in BC to post better hand analysis/better content in general, here is a hand from a session that I just finished and my thought process on the hand.

No reads/HUD on either of these players.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($11.25)
SB ($9.90)
BB ($1.75)
UTG ($10.25)
UTG+1 ($9.50)
MP1 ($18.45)
MP2 ($10.85)
MP3 ($1.95)
CO ($3.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
UTG raises to $0.50, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds

Looking back at this, I'm not sure if I should have 3bet. Am I being too passive just calling here? The only hands that I'm really worried about are AK, QQ+. If he was in LP I would have 3bet for sure, but since he was UTG I thought it better to call and see what the flop brought. Thoughts here?

Flop: ($1.15) 2, A, Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60

Obv good flop for me. The only broadways that I don't have crushed here are KJ and JT. The only hands I'm way behind are AA and QQ, but there's only 2 combos of those hands total, so I don't even really consider those as possibilities. Against 22 I'm still drawing to 4 outs. And any flush/straight draw has 9/8 outs against me respectively, but if either hits on the turn I'll have 4 outs on the river.

With all this said, looking back on the hand, this bet looks too small. Before I looked back at this action I had assumed I had bet the pot, but I only bet 1/2 pot.

This is kind of just me thinking out loud here, but what is my bet trying to accomplish right there? Obviously I'm not trying to get worse hands to fold. I'm not even worried about better hands, b/c the only hand I have to really be worried about is 22, and even that's a slim chance that he has it (i would think him to limp 22 UTG), and even if he does have it, i have 4 outs. So I'm betting strictly for value.

If he has a flush draw, he has 9 outs on the turn, giving him ~20% or 4-1, then by giving him 3-1 pot odds, his call is a mistake. However, his implied odds are better than this, so I don't think I'm making him make a big enough mistake with this bet. I'm thinking I should have bet pot here.

If he has a straight draw, he only has 4 outs, so he's making a big mistake calling.

Turn: ($2.35) 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2

Not an awesome card, as now there are two flush draws, but still a pretty good card. I still put him on a draw of some sort here, so a pot bet here seems good to me.

River: ($6.35) J (2 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

He fires out an almost pot-size bet, but no way am I laying this down. I'm getting better than 2-1 on my money, and the 3rd club isn't as scary as a 3rd heart because he's more likely to continue the flop with a heart draw than a club draw.

I'm having a really hard time, even looking back at the hand, putting him on a range here. It feels like a lot of draws, but of all the draws that I would put him on on the turn, very few got there on the river. KT completed the straight, 2 clubs completed the flush, and that's it. JJ has me beat, but that seems unlikely that he wouldn't have folded JJ already. So it seems like he doesn't have very many hands that beat me, but at the same time, what hands does he lead out for $5 on the river that I beat? Ax, QJ, and any bluff.

So I don't really know what to make of this hand. His river bet really confused me, but I don't see how I can fold there. I put him on a few possible draws, but the draws that got there on the river are the ones that I thought the least likely (club flush draw, straight draw with KT). But at the same time, his bet screams he hit his draw. So I dunno. The more I break down this hand, the more confused I get.
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bigspenda73
Old 01-09-2009, 04:09 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 I think the third club is more likely to complete his flush than a third heart.

Why do you think I consider this to be so?
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RML604
Old 01-09-2009, 04:18 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I think the third club is more likely to complete his flush than a third heart.

Why do you think I consider this to be so?
Because two of the big hearts are on the board, especially the ace.

Good call, I hadn't even considered that. But I'm not quite sure what to do with the info. This doesn't really increase the odds that he had a club draw, just decreases the odds that he had a heart draw, right?
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bigspenda73
Old 01-09-2009, 04:28 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 He raised PF from early position and the Ah and Qh are on the board. Unless he opens sc's utg it's very unlikely he's flopped a flush draw. Also, the fact that if he had opened a hand like 78hh he would most likely continuation bet the flop with that hand discounts him having a heart draw.

He could have a hand like KQcc/QJcc/AXcc that he decided to c/c on the flop. To me those make more sense than AA/QQ that I feel can be discounted because of the drawiness of the flop.

A final note, I fold PF about 100% of the time here as AQo is quite dominated by a standard tagg's utg opening range which a lot of times may not even contain AJs.

Looking back on the HH AJ makes the most sense to me. I do not fault you at all for calling. Make sure you take a note on the hand you're shown and how he played it. He made it 5x utg (was their a poster) which isn't exactly standard, next times he opens in EP check the size, if it's smaller note the hand he shows down in that spot.
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