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Evilpopcorn
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06-13-2009, 02:10 PM
Post subject: 10NL : Strong donk bet
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 232
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Villian Stats : (VP$IP/PFR [Street Aggression] 3-bet%)
SB: 22/6 [2 2 2] 0% over 32
UTG:54/4 [1 2 3] 0% over 27
My Thoughts And Questions
Ok so the donk here by SB i remember thinking this is pretty strong as its into two players and is nicely sized. The problem is that that when MP flat if i put a raise in i am committed on a shove. So i guess the questions comes does to am i ok on felting on this hand? If yes do i get it asap or wait for turn?
Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
BB: $4.90
UTG: $10.00
MP: $6.50
Hero (CO): $11.85
BTN: $10.65
SB: $8.50
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with J A
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold, MP calls $0.30
Flop: ($1.30) 8 J 9 (3 players)
SB bets $0.90, MP calls $0.90, Hero?
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golfguy37
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Straight
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 217
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Theres no reason you should think you dont have the best hand as the only hands that can beat you in this situation is Q-10 or 8-9. I would put in a pot sized re-raise and evaluate the situation from there. You are not commited to the pot if he comes over the top, however.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by golfguy37
Theres no reason you should think you dont have the best hand as the only hands that can beat you in this situation is Q-10 or 8-9 or 88 or 99. I would put in a pot sized re-raise and evaluate the situation from there. You are not commited to the pot if he comes over the top, however.
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Just noting that the underlined portion above is not sufficient for a raise to be +EV here. Consider your equity against the range that will stack off against you here and go from there.
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Keith
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,336
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Tx is going to be betting this flop as will 88,99,JJ,QQ,KK,AA, 67. KQ (in fact Qx) 77may well come along on this as well. At least theres no flush draws out there . I can't really come up with many cards to come that are going to help us and be safe except a J and maybe an A (assuming no AA out there) and possibly cards lower than 6. I'd probably be looking at the cbet and "fold to cbet" stats on my hud but i'd swing between a fold and calling to see what happens on the turn.I wouldn't feel happy about getting a lot of money in here though. MP could easily be sat on a set or two pair and straight draw.
An Ace may mean that we'd get value out of AK AQ A8 A9 but depending on my personal reads this may well be a situation where i reduce variance and fold what may currently be the best hand thinking its unlikely to be the best hand. stoved the results for loose MP hand1 and tighter hand2 SB. bu looks like i missed KK off .
Code:
114,708,806,982 games 153.907 secs 745,312,474 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.528% 38.86% 02.67% 44577700353 3058374803.50 { AdJd }
Hand 1: 27.219% 26.23% 00.99% 30088396302 1134669371.50 { 66+, A9s+, KTs+, Q2s+, JTs, T2s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, A9o+, KTo+, Q2o+, J9o+, T2o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 2: 31.253% 28.73% 02.52% 32954273394 2895392758.00 { AA, QQ-88, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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if the question is if we're playing for stacks here, then the answer's no (we need far more donkalicious reads on opponent than given).
keith, if you're trying to determine if we fold to the turn donk bet, then the answer is no. if we're gonna PFR, and then fold every time we're donked into with TPTK on a semi-connected board, then we might as well fold every single broadway we get dealt preflop, including AK.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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kfaess
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 556
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Consider your equity against the range that will stack off against you here and go from there.
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Do this. Stacking off with TPTK here is horrible imo.
I don't know if I'm folding either. I guess we could call the bet since we're getting a decent price and then see what the turn card brings. If it is a K, Q, T, or 7 and he leads into two people again, we can probably fold. If the turn is a blank and he leads into two people then we probably fold there as well. I think a lot of the time when both players call the flop bet he is checking the turn and UTG is checking as well.
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Evilpopcorn
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 232
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Meh calling flop and folding turn hurtz but i think you are right. I did call the flop then had a spazztard moment on blank turn and shipped on his turn bet.
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Keith
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by surviva316
if the question is if we're playing for stacks here, then the answer's no (we need far more donkalicious reads on opponent than given).
keith, if you're trying to determine if we fold to the turn donk bet, then the answer is no. if we're gonna PFR, and then fold every time we're donked into with TPTK on a semi-connected board, then we might as well fold every single broadway we get dealt preflop, including AK.
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It depends how you put your own gloss on what i said. I said that on this particular flop with these opponents acting in this way I may fold the flop or may call the flop depending on my personal reads of these players. Theres an awful lot of scare cards which can come in this situation and some which are neutral and very few which improve our hand. Even a J isnt necessarily a safe card either if one of them has 88 or 99.
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I'm calling two streets
I think a large third barrel from him has us crushed hard if we don't improve
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