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10NL-Set on Turn Facing Big Raise

  
 
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Sasquach991
Old 04-27-2009, 04:41 PM     Post subject: 10NL-Set on Turn Facing Big Raise #1 (permalink)  
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Villian was 45/4/1.5 over about 30 hands
I had played this villian before and made some notes.
Villian likes any two suited cards and will go to SD with any pair unless it's a push. Villian also likes broadways, suited or not. This is the first time I saw villian make a big bet.

I actually thought the weak cbet would cause a fold. I thought I was way ahead on the turn until the raise.

Am I ever ahead here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($17.25)
Button ($9.60)
Hero (SB) ($9.80)
BB ($8)
UTG ($11.20)
MP ($4.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.50, 2 folds, CO calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.20) 8, 7, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.80) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, CO raises to $6, Hero ????
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sil693
Old 04-27-2009, 04:51 PM #2 (permalink)  
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why would a weak cbet result in a fold? you have a note that says he likes playing suited cards - so lots of flush draws can be in his range. you also say villain goes to SD with any pair. neither of these make me think he folds to a lot of cbets.

I'm never folding this turn, shipping it seems fine. He can have lots of 2 pairs here, 77/88 some badly played Q a % of the time maybe. I dont see how we can put villain solely on the 3 hands that have us beat when its obvious he's terribad.
 
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Sasquach991
Old 04-27-2009, 05:03 PM #3 (permalink)  
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He had folded to my cbets at about 80% previously. Not this table but previously. His fold to cbet stats total were at about 30%.
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Muzzard
Old 04-27-2009, 05:07 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Stacks
Old 04-27-2009, 05:08 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 His fold to cbet stats are going to be fairly meaningless over a 30 hand sample.
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Sasquach991
Old 04-27-2009, 05:19 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
His fold to cbet stats are going to be fairly meaningless over a 30 hand sample.
Good point.

But, someone who is normally passive makes a big bet and I still don't put him on a good hand?
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Kijjo
Old 04-27-2009, 05:25 PM #7 (permalink)  
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It's 10NL, you're ahead here almost every time.
You're calling 2/3 pot c-bet weak? That's my standard (default) flop bet.
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ColdDecked
Old 04-27-2009, 05:28 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Shove over his raise since only QQ and JT beat you here and he's pot committed anyways. If he has QQ it's a cooler, you can't really worry about set over set in 100 bb. He probably has QJ/QT, Q w/fd, or 2pair/set here.

By previously, does that mean you have more than 30 hands on the guy? If you do and if he knows you, folding 80% of your cbets might make JT less likely. 30 hands is really too small of a sample size to say anything other than that he's loose.
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sil693
Old 04-27-2009, 05:32 PM #9 (permalink)  
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download pokerstove.
play with both your ranges given the action on this turn.
report back.

imo.
 
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XTR1000
Old 04-27-2009, 05:35 PM #10 (permalink)  
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thats not a big raise at all. he has a ton of 2pr on this board, its wet as fuck and you hold a set. what was the question again?
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Sasquach991
Old 04-27-2009, 06:07 PM #11 (permalink)  
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At the time I felt like a dumbass for shoving. Now I feel like a dumbass for feeling like a dumbass for shoving.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ColdDecked
Shove over his raise since only QQ and JT beat you here ....
There are two other cards that beat me too.
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...we've all learned long ago how to share the truth without actually having the truth.
 
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sil693
Old 04-27-2009, 06:11 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasquach991
At the time I felt like a dumbass for shoving. Now I feel like a dumbass for feeling like a dumbass for shoving.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ColdDecked
Shove over his raise since only QQ and JT beat you here ....
There are two other cards that beat me too.
now think about the hands you beat.
 
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Ragnar4
Old 04-27-2009, 07:08 PM #13 (permalink)  
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All in, move on, forget results gg
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 04-27-2009, 08:18 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 i don't think this is the time to fold a set - especially at 6max

there's just no way you're bet/folding the turn here.
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Sasquach991
Old 04-27-2009, 08:27 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
i don't think this is the time to fold a set - especially at 6max

there's just no way you're bet/folding the turn here.
All,
Looks like I got my money in good. That's all that counts.

M2M, I love the new sig.
Ignore the BR and I will play better
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...we've all learned long ago how to share the truth without actually having the truth.
 
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ColdDecked
Old 04-27-2009, 09:28 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 Whoops, sorry, forgot about the dummy end straight, but this is still a shove. You can't just call the turn raise since you're going to be left with $2.70. If he did catch the straight it's a cooler since you caught the one card forces you to stay in the pot, but even so, you still have 10 outs and it's usually not wrong to play for stacks with a set in 100 bb games.
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AFchung
Old 04-28-2009, 08:05 AM #17 (permalink)  
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he can be doing this with two pair so often. shippppppppppppp
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bjsaust
Old 04-28-2009, 08:36 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Its already been said why this is good, but its important you understand WHY shipping it in here is good, not just acknowledge that you got your money in good and move on. This is like the definition of ranges and value.
Just playing to improve.
 
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