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10NL: QQ, scary turn card

  
 
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Gobbatino
Old 06-07-2009, 10:23 AM     Post subject: 10NL: QQ, scary turn card #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 63/10/3 but only over 60ish hands. Not many reads here.

Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($16.10)
SB ($25.15)
BB ($41.69)
UTG ($8.62)
MP ($14.42)
CO ($3.32)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
3 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) J, 4, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BB calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.05) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???
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Dannyboy6
Old 06-07-2009, 11:16 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Definately A LOT of possibilities for BB to have given his range it looks as tho he has been playing.

Given the fact he checked the turn can really mean anything at all. Either a small pair, Ax/A4, a jack or even checked the flush.

I would check behind him to keep the pot small considering you are in position. However a decent sized bet should help provide how you're doing as it's doubful he would just smooth call a decent bet here with anything but the nut flush.
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Gobbatino
Old 06-07-2009, 11:27 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Gobbatino
He also insta-checked the turn, which usually means he's got nothing at all or something very strong. I checked behind as well, thinking around the same lines you're thinking. His range for calling a button raise has to be quite wide with those stats. Flatting the flop means A4, 44+, any J, pretty much any two hearts? If that's his range then I'm way behind of most of it except 55-TT and he would probably check down the river with those. Please correct me if my line of thinking is off here.

Say Hero checks behind on the turn and then is faced with a 2/3 on blank river. He's shown to be aggressive on the river before (6AF on river, though through such a small sample that doesn't mean much?). With the range I posted above I have about 38% equity. But if I remove the lower PPs which I don't think he'd bet on the river with, I'm down to 25%. Good fold at this point?

Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($16.10)
SB ($25.15)
BB ($41.69)
UTG ($8.62)
MP ($14.42)
CO ($3.32)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
3 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) J, 4, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BB calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.05) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.05) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $1.20, Hero folds

Total pot: $2.05 | Rake: $0.10
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AFchung
Old 06-07-2009, 11:37 AM #4 (permalink)  
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check behind. his drawing and floating hands just improved to a flush or a pair of aces
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Robb
Old 06-07-2009, 01:45 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
check behind. his drawing and floating hands just improved to a flush or a pair of aces
Don't really see Ah smacking his range too hard, except for the heart part. I'm meh about this spot, but I probably check behind turn and call the river. I think we're ahead of his range.
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Stacks
Old 06-07-2009, 03:39 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Well played imo.
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FateAver
Old 06-07-2009, 04:45 PM #7 (permalink)  
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There is high chance that he has A or small flush
so maybe he check on turn to make sure you don't have
3 kinds of J or full house IMO
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Old 06-07-2009, 05:23 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
check behind. his drawing and floating hands just improved to a flush or a pair of aces
Don't really see Ah smacking his range too hard, except for the heart part. I'm meh about this spot, but I probably check behind turn and call the river. I think we're ahead of his range.
is this a level?

a 63/10 can peel just ace high here with no flush draw
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Stacks
Old 06-07-2009, 05:54 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 A lot of people can peel just Ahi here on the flop. We are opening button, our range is really wide. Therefore, calling the flop with Ahi is likely +EV; however, might put you in shitty turn/river spots.
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