Originally Posted by Palantine

You put him on his range, after the flop and fourth street I think we can weight it toward the top of his range, so I would fold. You could be very easily drawing to one out ( ).

Originally Posted by Illfavor

What? You aren't 3betting here. You do realize, yes?

Fold the turn IMO.

Originally Posted by Palantine

If villain had AA or KK with the A or K of hearts.

Originally Posted by kettleofish

Ummmmmmm, care to look at your pokerstove calculations again??? Maybe put in the turn card...

Edit: That response has tillllted me. Go ahead and shove over his turn bet ppl, because his range for calling off another 150bbs on the turn includes unpaired high card hands without flush redraws and if has the flush already oh wells.

Originally Posted by LawDude

Outlaw, I still think you are getting the range wrong.

The poster said the original pre-flop range (based on the re-raise) was AJ+ QQ+. That's it. We don't retroactively increase that range (unless the post-flop play seriously indicates that he must have raised with a weaker hand).

So now, he puts a big bet on the flop (which might be a continuation bet with nothing) AND another big bet on the turn (which ISN'T a continuation bet with nothing). At this point, we KNOW that he has a made hand. Thus, we take the original range and narrow it down to the made hands. That means QQ, KK, AA, AJ, AhQh, AhKh. That's it. That's his entire range as of the turn. He doesn't have AKo or AQo unless he is trying to pull off a maniac bluff.

Run your pokerstove against THAT range. I do my math manually (check my 2/10 7:47 p.m. post above) but it sure looks to me like Hero is well behind in a heads-up pot where he is basically getting even money on his calls.

Now, if you actually have fold equity here, that might change things. And that's something that depends on the Hero's reads and the Villain's previous actions in response to aggressive plays on wet boards. But the range of this play is pretty damned narrow, because you have a guy putting serious money into the pot pre-flop (a 3-bet of 16xBB), on the flop (for about 3/4 of the pot), and on the turn (for about 3/4 of the much larger pot). Non-maniac players generally don't do that unless they really believe they have a strong hand.

Originally Posted by Outlaw

You are assuming people only two-barrel with made hands.

Regardless, I updated it with only "made" hands or strong draws.

Board: Js 7h 2h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.574% 51.40% 01.17% 769 17.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 47.426% 46.26% 01.17% 692 17.50 { QQ+, AhKh, AhQh, AJs, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AJo }


Why do you all keep leaving AJ out of his range? Isn't that top pair top kicker? Why are you leaving QQ out?

I think shoving the turn has a ton of fold equity. With most of his range it would be incorrect to call an overbet shove here I think. AA should fold, KK should fold. AQ folds. QQ folds. AJ folds. AK/AJhearts calls, JJ may call. what else calls?

Any of you pros want to help out with this one? Am I way off here?

Originally Posted by Outlaw

If we are going to lay down QQ on that board with a ton of equity vs the villain's range, we shouldn't of called the 3bet pf.. we should of 4bet or folded.

Originally Posted by LawDude

Outlaw, at the time that the pre-flop bet occurred, Hero didn't know that Villain was going to two-barrel the flop and the turn. The decision to play the hand pre-flop is based on the information that Hero had at that time. Now Villain has given us more information about his hand. The question is, are we going to use that information to narrow down his range and lay down a likely beaten hand, or are we going to keep calling because we called when we had less information?

Originally Posted by iopq

needs moar 3b stats on hud

anyway, the stack sizes say that we're getting it in by the river if we call this bet
so we're not calling $6 bet, we're calling a $20.40 bet into a $8.7 pot

pokerstove says:

Board: Js 2h 7h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.760% 54.39% 01.37% 694 17.50 { JJ+, AhKh, AJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 44.240% 42.87% 01.37% 547 17.50 { QhQs }

our pot odds are bad, but we need 41.4% to call and we have 44% equity
so go ahead and shovel on the turn
we don't have any fold equity (if he folds AJ here then don't shove the turn, in fact, we don't really want fold equity) but we have enough real equity to stick it in

Originally Posted by kettleofish

Hero has Qh.

I still maintain that the range I posted above is a pretty realistic stackoff range for villain without reads that he is mentally deficient. I mean even to include AJo in his 3bet range this deep OOP is a stretch.

Originally Posted by Sasquach991

showdown and villian had the bottom of the range I had put him on...in white
AJo