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10NL-QJs on button and paired board

  
 
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Sasquach991
Old 03-05-2009, 03:59 AM     Post subject: 10NL-QJs on button and paired board #1 (permalink)  
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SB was 34/8/1 over 50
BB was 56/20/1.8 over 35

Both villians had been playing just about anything with one face card suited or not.
Flop, I put at least one of the villians on 9x.

Please give reasons for what you would do.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($10.55)
BB ($9.10)
UTG ($4.35)
MP ($9.10)
Hero (Button) ($10.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, J
2 folds, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) 9, Q, 9 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60, BB calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.70) 8 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, SB raises to $5, BB raises to $8.20 (All-In), Hero ???
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lockpull
Old 03-05-2009, 04:08 AM     Post subject: Re: 10NL-QJs on button and paired board #2 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasquach991
SB was 34/8/1 over 50
BB was 56/20/1.8 over 35

Both villians had been playing just about anything with one face card suited or not.
Flop, I put at least one of the villians on 9x.

Please give reasons for what you would do.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($10.55)
BB ($9.10)
UTG ($4.35)
MP ($9.10)
Hero (Button) ($10.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, J
2 folds, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) 9, Q, 9 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60, BB calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.70) 8 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, SB raises to $5, BB raises to $8.20 (All-In), Hero ???
This may be tight but in this spot I would hope that I could very reluctantly lay it down after a raise and a reraise on that board. But given those stats, I would probably call anyway and just reload if they have me beat.


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S1x
Old 03-05-2009, 04:32 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Hmm, I'll try this one. This is one of the first times I'm reviewing somebody else's hand.

I'm assuming there's no way we have the best hand at this moment.

The pot would be $17.65 and you'd need another $6.50 to call, for about 2.7 to 1 (although it's probably a little better since the SB isn't getting out of this hand I would think). If neither hand is better than three 9's, a 10 or Q or a spade are good, making it a little over 2 to 1.

That seems like the right price, but the problem is that there are a lot of possibilities that give you less outs... J 10 (barely worse than three 9's though), two spades with the King or Ace (quite worse), and 98 or 88 or even Q9 (gg). Plus there's the fact that just one of them needs those to give you little hope, and that the rest of your money's probably about to go in anyway.

It's close, but I'd fold; it seems too likely that at least one person has got something really big.
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DoanDiggy
Old 03-05-2009, 05:49 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I call because I'm a donk and can never lay down a draw like this 3-way. Here's a reasonable range, though. IMO their ranges could be a bit wider here.

Code:
Board: 9s Qd 9h 8s	
Hand 0: 	37.227%  	34.14% 	03.09% 	        213515 	    19296.50   { QQ-88, AQs, AsTs, A9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KQs, KsTs, K9s, Ks7s, Q7s+, J9s+, Js7s, T9s, Ts7s, 92s+, AQo, A9o, KQo, K9o, Q7o+, J9o+, T9o, 97o+ }
Hand 1: 	37.227%  	34.14% 	03.09% 	        213515 	    19296.50   { QQ-88, AQs, AsTs, A9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KQs, KsTs, K9s, Ks7s, Q7s+, J9s+, Js7s, T9s, Ts7s, 92s+, AQo, A9o, KQo, K9o, Q7o+, J9o+, T9o, 97o+ }
Hand 2: 	25.546%  	22.38% 	03.17% 	        139942 	    19815.00   { QsJs }
Assuming SB is going to call (he is), we are calling 7.85 to win 30.10, meaning that we need 26.1% equity, slightly more when you consider the rake. With the range I gave, we're in worse shape than that, but I think my range might include too many 9s and not enough non-made hands (more Qs?). So it's reeeeaaaally close. I guess it comes down to whether or not you're sitting in your lucky seat.
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Old 03-05-2009, 07:17 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Code:
Board: 9s Qd 9h 8s
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	22.187%  	20.46% 	01.72% 	         20508 	     1726.00   { QsJs }
Hand 1: 	38.907%  	36.21% 	02.70% 	         36284 	     2705.00   { 88+, AQs, A9s, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo, JTo }
Hand 2: 	38.907%  	36.21% 	02.70% 	         36284 	     2705.00   { 88+, AQs, A9s, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo, JTo }
I'm giving them made hands because they won't be check/shoving draws on the turn
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DoanDiggy
Old 03-05-2009, 07:45 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Code:
Board: 9s Qd 9h 8s
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	22.187%  	20.46% 	01.72% 	         20508 	     1726.00   { QsJs }
Hand 1: 	38.907%  	36.21% 	02.70% 	         36284 	     2705.00   { 88+, AQs, A9s, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo, JTo }
Hand 2: 	38.907%  	36.21% 	02.70% 	         36284 	     2705.00   { 88+, AQs, A9s, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo, JTo }
I'm giving them made hands because they won't be check/shoving draws on the turn
Aren't your preflop ranges too tight? With VPIPs over 30, there are a lot more 9s in there (any 98o, 96s or better probably). Not that that makes the situation a whole lot better, just saying:

Code:
56% VPIP
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T7s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,53s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,K5o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,97o+,86o+,75o+,65o,54o

34% VPIP
22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,J9o+,T9o
Also, I could definitely see BB putting all his chips in with a big draw (if he's calling $5, he might as well put $8.20 in) like AsTs, KsTs, even a Ts7s or 7s6s that decided to float the flop getting 3.5:1 with some backdoor draws. Hell, I've even seen pair+gutshots or overcard+gutshots in spots like this (JJ, TT, AJ, AT, KJ, KT).

It does look like SB has a strong hand, but don't donks usually minraise big hands? I don't think it's impossible for him to also have QJ or worse and think it's the best hand, where we're either ahead or freerolling. It's also not impossible for him to be overplaying a nut flush draw simply because he thinks we don't have anything. I mean, we even have 40% equity against KQ because of the 7 outs to split and 16 outs to win.

Certainly the lower-variance, more-conservative play is to fold here, but we have showdown value along with a huge draw and we're never drawing dead, so I have a hard time finding a fold 3-way.
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sil693
Old 03-05-2009, 08:19 AM #7 (permalink)  
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wait.

do you mean you put at least one on 9x before you bet the flop or after?
if before, what is the point in betting?
if after, why on earth are you betting the turn?
 
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Sasquach991
Old 03-05-2009, 03:01 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Code:
Board: 9s Qd 9h 8s
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	22.187%  	20.46% 	01.72% 	         20508 	     1726.00   { QsJs }
Hand 1: 	38.907%  	36.21% 	02.70% 	         36284 	     2705.00   { 88+, AQs, A9s, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo, JTo }
Hand 2: 	38.907%  	36.21% 	02.70% 	         36284 	     2705.00   { 88+, AQs, A9s, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo, JTo }
I'm giving them made hands because they won't be check/shoving draws on the turn
Is their made hand a set or a boat?

Sil693,
After the flop.

My biggest problem with this hand was whether to put one villian on a boat. If that's the case I have one out(Ts).
At the time, I was thinking the spade on the turn scared them.
"Just cause I'm from the South don't mean I ain't got no book learnin'"

Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
...we've all learned long ago how to share the truth without actually having the truth.
 
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d0zer
Old 03-05-2009, 03:42 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 If on the flop, you put at least one of them on 9x, why the hell would you bet the turn? that makes no sense. I wouldn't assume these loose donks have 9x given the flop action, but given the turn action I would say one of them has it or better most of the time.

So given that you're beat, you have 14 outs to improve, but given some boat possibilities, we've gotta take some of those outs away.

I'm gunna assume that both donks are getting their stacks in the middle here, which means it's about $8 to win $30 for you, or 1:3.75 on yer monies, which means you need about 21% equity to breakeven.

14 outs gives you roughly 28%, so the question is "how likely is a boat?". These are donks we're dealing with, there's probably a lot more trips/straights in their ranges, so maybe we take away 3-4 outs giving you about 20-22% equity?

It's pretty damned close and I don't really hate either option. Kinda a gross spot yah. I maybe err on the side of the lower variance fold cuz like zomg of course one of the donk has a boat, and there is always some slight chance that the seemingly committed SB will do something stupid like fold which hurts your pot odds (slight chance I know), and I'm not sure I took enough outs away.
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Sasquach991
Old 03-05-2009, 04:13 PM #10 (permalink)  
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If the Turn had not been a spade I probably would have checked. The fact that it was an 8s gave me many more outs so I wanted to remain the aggressor. If I was scared of a 9 I wouldn't have cbet the flop. If one of these guys had been a TAGG, I would have played differently.

Why is a 9 not considered an out? Because either villian may have one?
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
...we've all learned long ago how to share the truth without actually having the truth.
 
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Old 03-06-2009, 12:00 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasquach991
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Code:
Board: 9s Qd 9h 8s
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	22.187%  	20.46% 	01.72% 	         20508 	     1726.00   { QsJs }
Hand 1: 	38.907%  	36.21% 	02.70% 	         36284 	     2705.00   { 88+, AQs, A9s, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo, JTo }
Hand 2: 	38.907%  	36.21% 	02.70% 	         36284 	     2705.00   { 88+, AQs, A9s, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo, JTo }
I'm giving them made hands because they won't be check/shoving draws on the turn
Is their made hand a set or a boat?

Sil693,
After the flop.

My biggest problem with this hand was whether to put one villian on a boat. If that's the case I have one out(Ts).
At the time, I was thinking the spade on the turn scared them.
what the fuck kind of question is that
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