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10NL overpair river line

  
 
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S1x
Old 06-27-2009, 11:51 PM     Post subject: 10NL overpair river line #1 (permalink)  
Two Pair

Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 44
S1x
Had this saved for about a week but was too lazy to put it up.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($11.35)
UTG ($2.45)
UTG+1 ($15.85)
MP1 ($9.85)
MP2 ($9.15)
CO ($18.25)
Button ($10)
SB ($9.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J
4 folds, CO calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.40

Button was a fairly solid 18/13 player from over 100 hands, and I've seen him act quite aggresively (in a profitable way) in certain spots.

Flop: ($1.15) 8, 5, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, Button calls $0.75

Wasn't scared too much about straight draws in this spot. I figured my hand was still ahead.

Turn: ($2.65) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, Button calls $1.60

Same story, although I figured the size of my bet wasn't really going to affect what he'll do with a draw, so I tried a fairly low amount.

River: ($5.85) 8 (2 players)
Hero ?

By this point I figured my opponent was doing one of these two things:
- He had a missed draw, low pocket pair, or ace high, and was hoping I'd slow down.
- He was slowplaying something big (although I really think he would raise any higher pairs preflop) or hit a third 8 and was hoping I'd fire a third time.

How would you proceed here?
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Old 06-28-2009, 12:33 AM #2 (permalink)  
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c/f, he probably doesn't call with a straight draw for two streets
if he does, he probably has exactly 66 and will check to show it down
if he has A6 he might decide to check anyway and hope you have a bluff
he really doesn't have a lot of hands like T6 in his PF raise calling range that will bluff this river because they have 0 showdown value
since you raised pre the only hands that should have a strong draw in your range should be 66 and A6 so it's a pretty tight range
so it's actually reasonable for him to call the flop/turn with a set if he expect you to be really aggressive and barrel you a lot

I fully expect him to check back pocket pairs like 99/TT on the river so you're only catching a bluff
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Parasurama
Old 06-28-2009, 12:41 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Location: DMT
Posts: 820
Parasurama
If you thought the size of your turn bet wouldn't affect what he would do with a draw why would you bet smaller instead of larger? If he's calling a pot-sized bet with a draw it's a larger mistake than calling your smallish bet. You want to make your opponent make the biggest mistake possible.

As played I like b/f river like 3.3
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Old 06-28-2009, 01:11 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parasurama
If you thought the size of your turn bet wouldn't affect what he would do with a draw why would you bet smaller instead of larger? If he's calling a pot-sized bet with a draw it's a larger mistake than calling your smallish bet. You want to make your opponent make the biggest mistake possible.

As played I like b/f river like 3.3
I just think he folds everything we beat but 99/TT and those hands he can easily be raising PF to isolate the limper

the only thing that does is prevent him from bluffing you because most NL10 regs won't raise the river with a bluff
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