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10NL overpair with gutshot

  
 
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DaddyDeez
Old 09-05-2008, 09:36 PM     Post subject: 10NL overpair with gutshot #1 (permalink)  
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Assume villain just sit down.

$0.05/$0.1 Deep No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($12.35)
UTG 1 ($10.10)
MP1 ($11.35)
MP2 ($12.75)
Hero ($7.25)
CO ($15.65)
BTN ($9.55)
SB ($3.55)
BB ($8.40)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 9 players) Hero is MP3
1 fold, UTG 1 raises to $0.35, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.35, 2 folds, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.15, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG 1 goes all-in $9.75, $6.9 to Hero ($6.9)?


my first instinct here was to call, the push on the flop seems to suggest he doesn't want any action.
but his range is so large here he could easily have me beat
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Old 09-05-2008, 10:17 PM #2 (permalink)  
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He doesn't have the nuts, that's a given. Villain has an over-pair to your 88. If I had to guess, he has TT-QQ.

I'm folding this full-stack shove, especially to an unknown.

Then again, what do I know. I'm still on tilt.
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sarbox68
Old 09-06-2008, 12:11 AM #3 (permalink)  
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1. I'm not playing 88 ovrpr for 70bb stacks against an unknown on that board... or likely any board except maybe if you had 88 + OESD or combo draw. You don't.
2. SB is still to act. Both of them could have pwnd right now with made straight and 99+. Lets also not forget two pair (67, 46?) and set.
3. You have 6 outs to improve (assuming someone isn't sitting on 89)... 2 8s and 4 5s. Anyone with two cards higher than 8 also has 6 outs to improve in a way that will crush you unless you hit your 1:4. So even if you're ahead now, I don't like the reverse implieds -- esp if SB comes in too as lottsa paint is in their range.
4. If I could have all the money back that I've lost to meh overpairs, I would have more money.
5. Goes without saying, but you have no fold equity as you ain't doing the pushing.
6. At this level, a push like this could be a lot of things. Yes, could be semi-thinking player protecting a good pair (or even two-pair or a set) by heavy handedly pricing out draws. I've also seen this exact same line with a made straight 'cause vill sucks at bet-sizing and/or thinks a big push like this will look bluffy and will get more callers.

thems my 2-cents... but I am a noobie and a nit
 
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poker_pup
Old 09-06-2008, 12:14 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Mezza Morta Posted:
Villain has an over-pair to your 88.
Agreed.

And even with your gut shot straight draw, I don't think you're getting proper odds to call.
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Ragnar4
Old 09-06-2008, 03:59 AM #5 (permalink)  
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At this level I see this with AK from total helmet wearing retards because they want to "blow you off your hand" Not that I wouldnt call without 2pr or 14 outs.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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animal_chin
Old 09-06-2008, 07:33 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I like the fold here. I agree with this most likely being an over pair. Too bad for the over pair the SB has a set lol.
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