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10NL NFD facing raise on flop

  
 
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miracleriver
Old 11-11-2009, 07:28 PM     Post subject: 10NL NFD facing raise on flop #1 (permalink)  
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No reads on villain, but table as a whole was rather passive postflop. Btw, this is a full-ring table with missing players.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($10.15)
UTG ($3.20)
MP ($19.50)
CO ($11.85)
Button ($4.10)
SB ($1.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero bets $0.50, CO calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.05) A, 5, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, CO raises to $2.20, Hero ???

I put villain on a very narrow range: A5, A9, 99, 55, possibly 3c4c. Is it too narrow of a range? Reraising seems bad because, against that range, I expect him to reraise shove, which is -EV for me. Folding seems bad because I almost have the odds to call and we have plenty of money behind. So, I should just call and c/f any non-club turn. Am I thinking about the hand properly?
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surviva316
Old 11-11-2009, 07:59 PM     Post subject: Re: 10NL NFD facing raise on flop #2 (permalink)  
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 false, you're not really getting very close to the right odds to call. you're getting like 1:2.5 whereas you need 1:4 for direct pot odds. that means you're going to need him to avg winning another 2 dollars for you to have the right implied odds. sounds easy enough, but consider you're never seeing a free card, you're OOP and like his whole range has redraws (A9 and A5 have 4 outs if you hit and AA, 99 and 55 each have 10 outs if you hit), you're not as guaranteed to achieve this as you might think.

i think you're right that an unknown on this flop isn't often raising anything other than AK, two pairs and sets with the occassional lesser FD, so we have dick for FE, so 3b'ing isn't really fun.

for these reasons i don't think that folding is bad against an unknown with a full stack who's making a standard raise size (i mean the last two points as minor reads that he may be reggy).

i don't think a call is the most -EV decision ever but you're going to have to play your hand a lot more perfectly against a very strong range, then i'm sure you're capable of doing for this to be a very good spot
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spoonitnow
Old 11-11-2009, 09:38 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Three things contribute to you underestimating the odds you need to continue here: 1) The 9 , 2) You're OOP (no free cards, etc), 3) Villain is almost always going to have a redraw when you hit on the turn.
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IhaveTopTop
Old 11-13-2009, 01:56 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I wasn't as confident in the villian's hand range as others seem to be, but the more I thought about it, that narrow range make sense.

Honestly, I just keep changing my mind on this one. Some things I'm thinking:
I don't think the same player that would open limp with 34s in CO would raise that flop.
Would this player limp from CO with AK? Even passive player tend to raise AA, KK, AK.
Given your description, the limp with smallish pairs or bad aces really makes sense.

I didn't at first, but now agree folding may be the best play here. Also, it is one of those spots where if it is "wrong", it isn't wrong by much. Tough to play hands like this (you need help, can't control the action b/c you are OOP, opponent likely has redraws), so it may just be one of those "fold and wait for a better spot" deals.

Sorry about the rambling nature of my post, but thanks for posting this one, really gave me a lot to think about.
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