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10NL : Limped pot are so....so.....meh

  
 
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Evilpopcorn
Old 06-01-2009, 06:47 PM     Post subject: 10NL : Limped pot are so....so.....meh #1 (permalink)  
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Posts: 232
Evilpopcorn
Villian Stats : (VP$IP/PFR [Street Aggression] 3-bet%)

21/3 [4 1 inf] 7%

My Thoughts And Questions

So on flop villian has a VERY wide range. If i had to guess he prob completes like 60% of holdings.

When he jam over my 3-bet it looks and feel like a draw...... or maybe because its such a draw heavy board he is trying to protect his set of 9's, or better two pairs, and agaisnt the monster draw (AsQs for example) i am actually a 47% dog. Also we are drawing very thing against the flopped straight.

I really hate that i dont have top two pair in this spot so that i have some more of his strong hands beaten.

Really didnt know what to do here.

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

SB: $11.25
Hero (BB): $10.00
UTG: $11.15
MP: $10.85
CO: $19.80
BTN: $2.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with 9 T
3 folds, BTN calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.30) J 9 T (3 players)
SB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.20, BTN folds, SB raises to $9.90, Hero?
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bigspenda73
Old 06-01-2009, 07:05 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 fold
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Evilpopcorn
Old 06-01-2009, 07:13 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Lets say i had top two pair ?
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sarbox68
Old 06-01-2009, 07:18 PM #4 (permalink)  
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sarbox68
I picked my two pair hands apart a while ago. Split 'em into 3 categories on the flop a) Top 2pr, b) Top-bottom 2pr and c) bottom 2pr. Of course you're gonna lose sometimes with all of them, but I discovered the following:
a - usually holds up big pot style, good win rate
b - also holds up frequently in big pots, but not as much as is subject to redraws where you both have TP and vil spikes a better 2nd... but still in the positive
c - frequently a big pot losing hand as it doesn't always hold up so well against the range vils will play for stacks with... marginal win/break-even/sometimes losing hand (for me at least... sample size 500K hands)

In this case, you have bottom two on an extremely wet board. You've got 4 outs to the nuts (well... unless he's sitting on QsJs or something like that...), but are up against straight made/drawing and flush draw hands. Plus sets. Plus Jx that could spike a better 2pr.

Without any read, this dude could complete w/ ATCs. You basically have no clue what he has short of his Flop action. From what I saw at $10nl, this is generally (again, you gave us no reads) a bluff like 10-15% of the time, and a very strong hand the other 85%+. Your vulnerable and I'd personally just pick a better spot to play for stacks with little to no information.
 
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Evilpopcorn
Old 06-01-2009, 07:21 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Evilpopcorn
nice reply sarbox68 !

Do you use HEM ? I am quite new to it and wouldnt mind some quick help setting up a filter like that on my databse.
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bigspenda73
Old 06-01-2009, 07:23 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Evilpopcorn
Lets say i had top two pair ?
make a range for your opponent and plug both hands into pokerstove and analyze their equity
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Evilpopcorn
Old 06-01-2009, 07:25 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Thanks bigspenda73
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